Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#131
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#86
Pace77.0#29
Improvement+0.0#218

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#112
First Shot+4.6#60
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#313
Layup/Dunks-0.2#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#11
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement+0.0#176

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#156
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#95
Layups/Dunks-1.4#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#187
Freethrows-0.3#195
Improvement+0.0#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 10.0% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 95.2% 97.2% 90.2%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 77.2% 66.7%
Conference Champion 10.3% 11.7% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 1.3%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round8.8% 9.8% 6.2%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 36 - 48 - 7
Quad 412 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 362   Green Bay W 80-53 97%     1 - 0 +6.4 -5.9 +11.5
  Nov 12, 2022 184   Ball St. W 83-71 73%     2 - 0 +8.2 +5.1 +2.8
  Nov 17, 2022 302   North Dakota St. W 101-75 89%     3 - 0 +15.3 +9.9 +2.3
  Nov 21, 2022 206   East Carolina W 79-75 67%     4 - 0 +2.0 -3.6 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2022 282   UMKC L 61-63 79%     4 - 1 -8.1 -11.2 +3.1
  Nov 23, 2022 169   Drexel W 85-81 61%     5 - 1 +3.9 +17.7 -13.6
  Nov 30, 2022 73   Drake W 75-73 42%     6 - 1 +6.7 -1.4 +7.9
  Dec 03, 2022 287   @ Miami (OH) W 82-76 72%    
  Dec 07, 2022 117   @ Southern Illinois L 64-68 34%    
  Dec 11, 2022 224   @ Southern Indiana W 79-76 61%    
  Dec 17, 2022 133   @ Duquesne L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 22, 2022 275   Northern Illinois W 81-70 85%    
  Dec 29, 2022 313   Evansville W 77-63 91%    
  Jan 01, 2023 278   @ Valparaiso W 75-69 69%    
  Jan 04, 2023 256   @ Illinois St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 07, 2023 254   Illinois-Chicago W 81-71 82%    
  Jan 11, 2023 117   Southern Illinois W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 15, 2023 114   @ Missouri St. L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 18, 2023 120   Bradley W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 112   @ Murray St. L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 24, 2023 73   @ Drake L 70-78 23%    
  Jan 28, 2023 173   Northern Iowa W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 01, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 74-66 78%    
  Feb 04, 2023 112   Murray St. W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 08, 2023 278   Valparaiso W 78-66 85%    
  Feb 11, 2023 173   @ Northern Iowa L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 15, 2023 254   @ Illinois-Chicago W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 256   Illinois St. W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 22, 2023 139   @ Belmont L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 26, 2023 114   Missouri St. W 71-69 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 10.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 5.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.6 4.0 6.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.7 2.6 0.2 12.3 5th
6th 0.4 2.7 5.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.6 2.7 0.3 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 1.9 0.3 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.2 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.3 7.2 9.9 12.4 13.6 13.8 12.3 9.8 6.6 3.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.9% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 92.0% 1.5    1.3 0.2
16-4 77.2% 2.9    1.9 0.9 0.1
15-5 47.7% 3.1    1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0
14-6 19.5% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 5.6 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 56.8% 33.0% 23.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 35.6%
17-3 1.6% 34.7% 27.0% 7.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.1 10.5%
16-4 3.7% 20.8% 18.8% 2.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.9 2.5%
15-5 6.6% 18.5% 18.2% 0.3% 12.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 5.4 0.4%
14-6 9.8% 14.8% 14.8% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 8.3 0.1%
13-7 12.3% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 13.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 11.0 0.0%
12-8 13.8% 8.9% 8.9% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 12.6
11-9 13.6% 6.1% 6.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.8
10-10 12.4% 5.2% 5.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.7
9-11 9.9% 3.8% 3.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.5
8-12 7.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.0
7-13 4.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.2
6-14 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 9.0% 8.6% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.1 2.3 0.8 0.2 91.0 0.4%