Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#174
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#265
Pace68.2#195
Improvement-0.3#270

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#154
First Shot+3.1#86
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#319
Layup/Dunks-3.3#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#10
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#122
Freethrows-0.6#213
Improvement-0.2#247

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#204
First Shot+2.3#109
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#330
Layups/Dunks+3.2#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#300
Freethrows+2.5#49
Improvement-0.1#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.3% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 15.4
.500 or above 35.8% 39.1% 14.3%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 52.4% 21.5%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.5% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 2.3% 14.2%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.2%
First Round3.6% 3.9% 2.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 86.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 48 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 100   @ Richmond L 55-68 22%     0 - 1 -5.1 -8.6 +2.7
  Nov 21, 2022 84   San Francisco L 69-75 26%     0 - 2 +0.4 -2.8 +3.3
  Nov 22, 2022 128   Grand Canyon L 67-69 38%     0 - 3 +0.8 +4.6 -4.0
  Nov 26, 2022 266   Northern Illinois W 83-76 78%     1 - 3 -1.4 +0.6 -2.5
  Nov 30, 2022 115   @ Bradley L 53-68 25%     1 - 4 -8.2 -9.1 -0.8
  Dec 03, 2022 315   Evansville W 72-60 87%    
  Dec 06, 2022 102   Toledo L 79-81 43%    
  Dec 09, 2022 354   McNeese St. W 80-63 95%    
  Dec 12, 2022 187   South Florida W 68-64 63%    
  Dec 17, 2022 118   Towson L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 22, 2022 108   St. Bonaventure L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 28, 2022 112   Missouri St. L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 31, 2022 280   @ Illinois St. W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 04, 2023 276   @ Valparaiso W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 07, 2023 120   Southern Illinois L 62-63 47%    
  Jan 10, 2023 98   Murray St. L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 14, 2023 140   @ Belmont L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 18, 2023 280   Illinois St. W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 21, 2023 253   @ Illinois-Chicago W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 25, 2023 276   Valparaiso W 72-63 77%    
  Jan 28, 2023 133   @ Indiana St. L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 01, 2023 71   @ Drake L 64-75 17%    
  Feb 04, 2023 115   Bradley L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 08, 2023 315   @ Evansville W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 11, 2023 133   Indiana St. W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 15, 2023 71   Drake L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 18, 2023 112   @ Missouri St. L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 22, 2023 120   @ Southern Illinois L 59-66 27%    
  Feb 26, 2023 140   Belmont W 74-73 53%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.1 1.3 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.8 2.0 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.7 2.6 0.2 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.7 7.6 10.0 11.8 12.9 12.9 11.2 9.2 6.5 4.3 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 94.2% 0.4    0.4 0.0 0.0
16-4 82.9% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 53.5% 1.4    0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 20.4% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 58.2% 29.1% 29.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.0%
17-3 0.4% 26.4% 22.1% 4.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 5.6%
16-4 1.2% 19.8% 19.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
15-5 2.6% 16.4% 16.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2
14-6 4.3% 8.5% 8.5% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0
13-7 6.5% 8.0% 8.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.0
12-8 9.2% 6.0% 6.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.6
11-9 11.2% 5.2% 5.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.6
10-10 12.9% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 12.4
9-11 12.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.6
8-12 11.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.7
7-13 10.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-14 7.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.6
5-15 4.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-16 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-17 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.3 96.0 0.1%