Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#112
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#172
Pace62.7#330
Improvement-0.2#236

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#146
First Shot-2.7#264
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#18
Layup/Dunks+0.7#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#59
Freethrows-4.5#361
Improvement-0.3#313

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#90
First Shot-0.2#184
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#26
Layups/Dunks+6.6#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#304
Freethrows-0.5#210
Improvement+0.1#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 15.0% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.7
.500 or above 77.3% 85.9% 63.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 84.2% 60.3%
Conference Champion 12.0% 16.7% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round12.4% 14.5% 9.0%
Second Round2.2% 2.8% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 36 - 58 - 11
Quad 49 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2022 87   @ BYU L 64-66 31%     0 - 1 +7.2 -1.1 +8.1
  Nov 19, 2022 127   Middle Tennessee W 75-51 65%     1 - 1 +23.9 +12.3 +14.0
  Nov 25, 2022 138   UNC Wilmington L 54-68 57%     1 - 2 -11.9 -12.4 -0.5
  Nov 26, 2022 186   Ball St. L 64-67 68%     1 - 3 -3.8 -5.7 +1.7
  Nov 27, 2022 301   Oakland W 76-64 86%     2 - 3 +4.2 +2.1 +3.4
  Nov 30, 2022 253   @ Illinois-Chicago W 66-51 70%     3 - 3 +13.5 -3.5 +17.5
  Dec 03, 2022 115   Bradley W 65-62 61%    
  Dec 07, 2022 32   @ St. Mary's L 53-65 14%    
  Dec 10, 2022 198   Purdue Fort Wayne W 70-61 78%    
  Dec 16, 2022 105   @ Oral Roberts L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 18, 2022 244   Central Michigan W 74-63 85%    
  Dec 22, 2022 63   Sam Houston St. L 60-61 45%    
  Dec 28, 2022 174   @ Northern Iowa W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 01, 2023 71   Drake L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 04, 2023 315   Evansville W 70-54 93%    
  Jan 07, 2023 140   @ Belmont L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 11, 2023 280   @ Illinois St. W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 15, 2023 133   Indiana St. W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 18, 2023 71   @ Drake L 62-69 27%    
  Jan 21, 2023 120   Southern Illinois W 60-57 62%    
  Jan 24, 2023 253   Illinois-Chicago W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 28, 2023 98   @ Murray St. L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 01, 2023 276   Valparaiso W 70-57 87%    
  Feb 05, 2023 120   @ Southern Illinois L 57-60 41%    
  Feb 08, 2023 140   Belmont W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 12, 2023 315   @ Evansville W 67-57 82%    
  Feb 15, 2023 115   @ Bradley L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 18, 2023 174   Northern Iowa W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 21, 2023 98   Murray St. W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 26, 2023 133   @ Indiana St. L 69-71 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.7 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 6.0 2.6 0.2 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.8 2.8 0.2 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 3.1 0.3 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.4 6.6 9.6 11.6 13.6 13.8 12.4 9.6 7.0 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.4% 0.7    0.7 0.0
17-3 97.4% 1.9    1.7 0.2
16-4 78.9% 3.2    2.2 0.9 0.1
15-5 53.5% 3.7    1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 19.2% 1.9    0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 7.0 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 74.6% 41.3% 33.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.8%
18-2 0.7% 66.5% 45.0% 21.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 39.1%
17-3 2.0% 44.3% 33.0% 11.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 16.9%
16-4 4.0% 32.3% 28.4% 3.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.7 5.4%
15-5 7.0% 27.8% 26.5% 1.3% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.0 1.7%
14-6 9.6% 17.4% 17.1% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.0 0.3%
13-7 12.4% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 10.6 0.0%
12-8 13.8% 11.8% 11.8% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 12.2
11-9 13.6% 9.5% 9.5% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 12.3
10-10 11.6% 6.5% 6.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 10.8
9-11 9.6% 5.6% 5.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.1
8-12 6.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.4
7-13 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.2
6-14 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-15 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 12.9% 12.2% 0.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 3.6 2.0 1.2 1.1 87.1 0.8%