Oregon St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#209
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#215
Pace64.8#277
Improvement+0.1#80

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#218
First Shot+1.1#137
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#317
Layup/Dunks-0.8#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#266
Freethrows+3.5#30
Improvement+0.1#65

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#203
First Shot-0.6#193
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#205
Layups/Dunks+0.6#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement+0.0#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.0 15.7
.500 or above 1.2% 5.4% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 6.3% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.0% 14.7% 37.4%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 10.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 10
Quad 21 - 72 - 16
Quad 32 - 34 - 19
Quad 44 - 29 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 168   Tulsa W 73-70 52%     1 - 0 -0.1 -3.2 +3.1
  Nov 11, 2022 360   Florida A&M W 60-43 94%     2 - 0 -3.0 -14.4 +12.9
  Nov 19, 2022 189   Portland St. L 66-79 56%     2 - 1 -17.0 -12.9 -3.7
  Nov 24, 2022 19   Duke L 51-54 6%     2 - 2 +12.3 -0.4 +11.9
  Nov 25, 2022 66   Florida L 68-81 16%     2 - 3 -4.9 +3.6 -9.3
  Nov 27, 2022 189   Portland St. L 71-83 45%     2 - 4 -13.0 -8.6 -3.7
  Dec 01, 2022 97   Washington W 66-65 33%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +3.1 -3.2 +6.3
  Dec 04, 2022 71   @ USC L 61-74 11%    
  Dec 11, 2022 56   @ Texas A&M L 62-77 9%    
  Dec 15, 2022 113   Seattle L 69-72 38%    
  Dec 18, 2022 362   Green Bay W 74-56 95%    
  Dec 21, 2022 300   Denver W 74-66 78%    
  Dec 31, 2022 42   @ Oregon L 61-77 8%    
  Jan 05, 2023 47   @ Utah L 58-73 8%    
  Jan 07, 2023 50   @ Colorado L 62-77 8%    
  Jan 12, 2023 16   Arizona L 71-87 8%    
  Jan 14, 2023 35   Arizona St. L 59-69 18%    
  Jan 19, 2023 81   @ Stanford L 59-71 14%    
  Jan 22, 2023 232   @ California L 60-62 44%    
  Jan 26, 2023 47   Utah L 61-70 20%    
  Jan 28, 2023 50   Colorado L 65-74 21%    
  Feb 02, 2023 35   @ Arizona St. L 56-72 7%    
  Feb 04, 2023 16   @ Arizona L 68-90 3%    
  Feb 09, 2023 7   UCLA L 61-78 6%    
  Feb 11, 2023 71   USC L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 16, 2023 60   @ Washington St. L 60-74 11%    
  Feb 18, 2023 97   @ Washington L 62-73 18%    
  Feb 25, 2023 42   Oregon L 64-74 19%    
  Mar 02, 2023 81   Stanford L 62-68 30%    
  Mar 04, 2023 232   California W 63-59 64%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 4 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.4 1.2 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.8 6.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 19.3 10th
11th 3.6 11.9 13.9 8.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 41.3 11th
12th 4.3 9.0 6.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 22.9 12th
Total 4.3 12.6 19.3 19.9 17.0 12.2 7.2 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.4% 5.4% 5.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-11 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
8-12 4.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.1
7-13 7.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.2
6-14 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-15 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.9
4-16 19.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.9
3-17 19.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.3
2-18 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.6
1-19 4.3% 4.3
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%