Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#48
Expected Predictive Rating+14.0#32
Pace75.8#46
Improvement-0.3#346

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#20
First Shot+7.4#23
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#142
Layup/Dunks-2.2#250
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.6#3
Freethrows+1.0#119
Improvement+0.0#188

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#122
First Shot-2.6#257
After Offensive Rebounds+4.5#13
Layups/Dunks+5.1#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#295
Freethrows-2.7#311
Improvement-0.3#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.8% 5.4% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 9.5% 13.2% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.4% 62.1% 39.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.6% 54.9% 31.2%
Average Seed 8.9 8.6 9.6
.500 or above 98.9% 99.6% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.4% 91.3% 83.8%
Conference Champion 21.6% 25.4% 15.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four10.3% 10.8% 9.3%
First Round48.0% 56.5% 34.0%
Second Round23.1% 28.4% 14.6%
Sweet Sixteen7.1% 9.1% 3.8%
Elite Eight2.6% 3.3% 1.3%
Final Four0.9% 1.3% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Neutral) - 62.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 24 - 26 - 5
Quad 39 - 214 - 7
Quad 46 - 021 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 182   Utah Valley W 75-58 89%     1 - 0 +13.3 -1.1 +13.9
  Nov 11, 2022 120   Bradley W 84-62 81%     2 - 0 +22.4 +10.8 +11.2
  Nov 14, 2022 103   Santa Clara W 96-74 78%     3 - 0 +23.5 +13.8 +7.3
  Nov 17, 2022 180   @ San Diego W 91-89 OT 76%     4 - 0 +4.4 +9.6 -5.4
  Nov 22, 2022 106   Oral Roberts W 95-85 79%     5 - 0 +11.4 +5.4 +4.6
  Dec 01, 2022 220   Utah Tech W 86-81 92%     6 - 0 -1.2 +12.6 -13.9
  Dec 04, 2022 83   San Francisco W 83-80 62%    
  Dec 10, 2022 135   Loyola Marymount W 82-75 75%    
  Dec 19, 2022 260   Weber St. W 86-68 95%    
  Dec 22, 2022 113   Seattle W 83-77 71%    
  Dec 31, 2022 155   Fresno St. W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 03, 2023 225   @ Air Force W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 07, 2023 63   @ Boise St. L 69-70 44%    
  Jan 10, 2023 148   Wyoming W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 13, 2023 69   @ Nevada L 79-80 46%    
  Jan 17, 2023 77   UNLV W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 183   San Jose St. W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 25, 2023 25   @ San Diego St. L 73-80 28%    
  Jan 28, 2023 155   @ Fresno St. W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 01, 2023 55   New Mexico W 85-81 63%    
  Feb 04, 2023 74   @ Colorado St. L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 08, 2023 25   San Diego St. L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 11, 2023 183   @ San Jose St. W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 14, 2023 225   Air Force W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 18, 2023 69   Nevada W 82-77 67%    
  Feb 21, 2023 148   @ Wyoming W 77-72 68%    
  Mar 01, 2023 77   @ UNLV L 75-76 49%    
  Mar 04, 2023 63   Boise St. W 72-67 65%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.7 6.5 4.3 1.6 0.4 21.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.4 8.1 5.2 1.6 0.2 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 6.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.8 2.2 0.2 10.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 1.4 0.2 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.7 8.4 11.1 13.9 14.5 14.6 11.4 8.1 4.4 1.6 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 96.1% 4.3    3.7 0.5 0.0
15-3 80.2% 6.5    4.5 1.8 0.1
14-4 50.3% 5.7    2.6 2.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 18.7% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 13.4 6.1 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.6% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 3.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.4% 99.3% 30.4% 68.9% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
15-3 8.1% 96.4% 24.4% 72.0% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.3%
14-4 11.4% 90.1% 19.2% 71.0% 8.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.1 1.1 87.8%
13-5 14.6% 77.5% 17.4% 60.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 3.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 3.3 72.7%
12-6 14.5% 58.6% 13.5% 45.1% 10.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 3.4 0.9 0.1 6.0 52.1%
11-7 13.9% 37.5% 11.0% 26.5% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 1.2 0.1 8.7 29.8%
10-8 11.1% 21.6% 8.3% 13.4% 11.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 8.7 14.6%
9-9 8.4% 10.4% 6.5% 3.9% 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.5 4.2%
8-10 5.7% 6.4% 5.9% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.3 0.6%
7-11 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
6-12 1.6% 4.2% 4.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.7% 4.1% 4.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 53.4% 14.3% 39.1% 8.9 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.6 3.2 4.4 5.4 8.1 9.8 11.3 4.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 46.7 45.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.0 34.0 36.2 25.5 4.3