Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#307
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#291
Pace69.5#157
Improvement-0.3#256

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#312
First Shot-5.7#328
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#110
Layup/Dunks-7.0#357
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#54
Freethrows-0.8#224
Improvement+0.0#143

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#281
First Shot+0.1#171
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#346
Layups/Dunks-1.3#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#178
Freethrows+0.1#166
Improvement-0.3#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 0.7% 4.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 3.9% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 55.3% 40.4% 55.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 2.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 32 - 72 - 16
Quad 45 - 58 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 250   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 55-75 26%     0 - 1 -21.4 -19.4 -2.0
  Nov 17, 2022 167   Texas St. W 61-56 31%     1 - 1 +2.0 -9.0 +11.3
  Nov 22, 2022 259   Prairie View W 82-75 49%     2 - 1 -1.0 +2.8 -4.0
  Nov 25, 2022 242   Grambling St. L 55-75 45%     2 - 2 -27.1 -17.7 -9.7
  Nov 27, 2022 318   Dartmouth L 77-78 OT 67%     2 - 3 -13.7 -5.6 -8.0
  Nov 28, 2022 327   Incarnate Word W 68-62 71%     3 - 3 -7.9 -3.1 -4.2
  Dec 10, 2022 57   @ New Mexico L 66-86 3%    
  Dec 13, 2022 70   @ Utah L 59-78 4%    
  Dec 18, 2022 352   Bethune-Cookman W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 22, 2022 82   North Texas L 54-66 14%    
  Dec 29, 2022 119   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-79 9%    
  Dec 31, 2022 45   @ UAB L 69-90 3%    
  Jan 05, 2023 127   Middle Tennessee L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 07, 2023 129   Western Kentucky L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 11, 2023 189   @ UTEP L 61-71 18%    
  Jan 14, 2023 124   @ Charlotte L 55-70 9%    
  Jan 16, 2023 278   Rice W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 19, 2023 68   Florida Atlantic L 64-77 12%    
  Jan 21, 2023 241   Florida International L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 26, 2023 82   @ North Texas L 51-69 6%    
  Jan 28, 2023 119   Louisiana Tech L 67-76 21%    
  Feb 02, 2023 129   @ Western Kentucky L 64-78 11%    
  Feb 04, 2023 127   @ Middle Tennessee L 60-74 11%    
  Feb 11, 2023 189   UTEP L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 16, 2023 278   @ Rice L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 18, 2023 45   UAB L 72-87 9%    
  Feb 23, 2023 68   @ Florida Atlantic L 61-80 5%    
  Feb 25, 2023 241   @ Florida International L 71-78 27%    
  Mar 02, 2023 124   Charlotte L 58-67 23%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 4 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.5 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.5 9th
10th 0.2 2.7 7.5 9.4 5.7 1.8 0.2 27.6 10th
11th 3.7 10.1 13.5 10.0 4.2 1.0 0.1 42.5 11th
Total 3.7 10.3 16.2 18.0 16.5 13.1 9.4 6.2 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 14.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 8.7% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-11 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.8
8-12 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
7-13 6.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.2
6-14 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
5-15 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-16 16.5% 16.5
3-17 18.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.0
2-18 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.2
1-19 10.3% 10.3
0-20 3.7% 3.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%