Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#167
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#159
Pace62.3#336
Improvement+0.0#120

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#187
First Shot-2.4#256
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#69
Layup/Dunks+1.5#120
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#304
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement+0.1#105

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#166
First Shot-0.4#191
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#132
Layups/Dunks+1.3#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#98
Freethrows-3.5#335
Improvement-0.1#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.1% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 66.0% 72.1% 45.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.6% 63.0% 48.4%
Conference Champion 3.6% 4.1% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.2% 4.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round3.5% 4.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Away) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 49 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 51   @ Washington St. L 61-83 12%     0 - 1 -9.5 -1.4 -9.8
  Nov 12, 2022 180   @ Rhode Island W 70-66 40%     1 - 1 +6.5 +0.6 +5.8
  Nov 17, 2022 307   @ Texas San Antonio L 56-61 69%     1 - 2 -10.3 -15.4 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2022 231   @ California W 59-55 52%     2 - 2 +3.3 -1.5 +5.6
  Nov 25, 2022 183   Southern Utah W 78-65 52%     3 - 2 +12.4 +1.8 +10.5
  Nov 26, 2022 143   Hawaii L 65-72 43%     3 - 3 -5.3 +3.1 -9.3
  Dec 01, 2022 330   @ Lamar W 69-61 77%    
  Dec 04, 2022 278   Rice W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 10, 2022 291   Texas Arlington W 64-57 74%    
  Dec 17, 2022 63   Sam Houston St. L 58-63 31%    
  Dec 29, 2022 316   Louisiana Monroe W 72-60 87%    
  Dec 31, 2022 156   Troy W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 05, 2023 60   @ James Madison L 64-76 15%    
  Jan 07, 2023 148   @ South Alabama L 62-66 35%    
  Jan 12, 2023 272   @ Arkansas St. W 63-60 59%    
  Jan 14, 2023 316   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 19, 2023 94   Marshall L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 21, 2023 122   Louisiana L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 26, 2023 292   Georgia Southern W 69-59 82%    
  Jan 28, 2023 109   @ Southern Miss L 59-66 26%    
  Feb 02, 2023 122   @ Louisiana L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 04, 2023 156   @ Troy L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 09, 2023 272   Arkansas St. W 66-57 78%    
  Feb 11, 2023 147   Old Dominion W 64-62 56%    
  Feb 16, 2023 204   @ Appalachian St. L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 18, 2023 240   @ Coastal Carolina W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 22, 2023 148   South Alabama W 65-63 56%    
  Feb 24, 2023 109   Southern Miss L 62-63 45%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.3 1.6 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.5 2.5 0.2 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.9 0.7 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.7 1.0 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 2.9 1.2 0.1 6.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.6 10.8 12.9 13.7 13.4 11.9 8.7 6.0 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 92.9% 0.5    0.5 0.1
15-3 66.9% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1
14-4 33.3% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 18.4% 11.8% 6.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.5%
16-2 0.6% 27.2% 27.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.6% 17.3% 17.0% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.4%
14-4 3.5% 10.4% 10.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.2
13-5 6.0% 8.0% 8.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.5
12-6 8.7% 5.4% 5.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.3
11-7 11.9% 4.7% 4.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.3
10-8 13.4% 3.9% 3.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.9
9-9 13.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.3
8-10 12.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.6
7-11 10.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 7.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.5
5-13 4.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.8
4-14 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.7% 3.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.7 96.3 0.0%