Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#68
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#36
Pace70.3#138
Improvement+0.4#14

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#80
First Shot+5.1#49
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#280
Layup/Dunks+5.0#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#69
Freethrows-2.4#317
Improvement+0.0#113

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#60
First Shot+4.6#55
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#198
Layups/Dunks+2.3#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#44
Freethrows+1.0#130
Improvement+0.4#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 3.1% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.2% 40.1% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.1% 22.6% 8.7%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 11.2
.500 or above 98.8% 99.3% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 95.7% 90.9%
Conference Champion 29.1% 31.1% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four7.1% 7.6% 4.2%
First Round33.6% 36.3% 20.7%
Second Round12.4% 13.7% 6.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 3.8% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 34 - 5
Quad 38 - 212 - 7
Quad 410 - 122 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 64   @ Mississippi L 67-80 37%     0 - 1 -1.7 +4.5 -7.1
  Nov 14, 2022 67   @ Florida W 76-74 38%     1 - 1 +13.0 +2.5 +10.4
  Nov 17, 2022 111   Bryant W 85-74 75%     2 - 1 +12.0 -5.1 +15.2
  Nov 19, 2022 197   Detroit Mercy W 76-55 88%     3 - 1 +16.4 -0.5 +18.0
  Nov 26, 2022 326   @ Albany W 73-56 92%     4 - 1 +9.3 +0.4 +10.1
  Nov 30, 2022 148   South Alabama W 84-59 82%     5 - 1 +23.3 +12.7 +11.0
  Dec 04, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-70 83%    
  Dec 07, 2022 101   Florida Gulf Coast W 75-69 72%    
  Dec 17, 2022 241   Florida International W 83-68 91%    
  Dec 21, 2022 237   Northern Kentucky W 73-58 91%    
  Dec 29, 2022 82   @ North Texas L 59-61 44%    
  Jan 05, 2023 45   UAB W 81-80 53%    
  Jan 07, 2023 124   Charlotte W 67-59 76%    
  Jan 11, 2023 241   @ Florida International W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 14, 2023 82   North Texas W 62-58 66%    
  Jan 16, 2023 129   @ Western Kentucky W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 19, 2023 307   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-64 88%    
  Jan 21, 2023 189   @ UTEP W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 26, 2023 127   Middle Tennessee W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 28, 2023 129   Western Kentucky W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 02, 2023 45   @ UAB L 78-83 33%    
  Feb 04, 2023 124   @ Charlotte W 64-62 56%    
  Feb 09, 2023 278   Rice W 83-66 93%    
  Feb 11, 2023 119   Louisiana Tech W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 16, 2023 127   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 23, 2023 307   Texas San Antonio W 80-61 95%    
  Feb 25, 2023 189   UTEP W 73-61 86%    
  Mar 02, 2023 278   @ Rice W 80-69 83%    
  Mar 04, 2023 119   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-72 54%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.8 7.3 7.9 5.7 2.6 0.7 29.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.3 8.4 5.6 1.8 0.2 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.3 5.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 3.4 0.9 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.5 7.0 9.8 12.5 14.2 14.6 13.2 9.8 5.9 2.6 0.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
18-2 96.2% 5.7    5.2 0.5 0.0
17-3 81.2% 7.9    6.0 1.9 0.1
16-4 55.1% 7.3    4.0 2.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 25.8% 3.8    1.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 19.9 7.5 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 99.4% 55.1% 44.3% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
19-1 2.6% 95.5% 48.2% 47.3% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.3%
18-2 5.9% 86.8% 39.0% 47.8% 8.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.8 78.3%
17-3 9.8% 74.1% 33.1% 41.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 61.2%
16-4 13.2% 58.6% 28.8% 29.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.9 1.4 0.1 5.5 41.8%
15-5 14.6% 38.9% 23.5% 15.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.9 20.1%
14-6 14.2% 25.7% 19.0% 6.7% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.5 8.3%
13-7 12.5% 16.6% 14.4% 2.2% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 10.5 2.5%
12-8 9.8% 12.3% 12.0% 0.3% 12.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 8.6 0.4%
11-9 7.0% 9.9% 9.8% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.3 0.1%
10-10 4.5% 9.7% 9.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.1
9-11 2.7% 5.6% 5.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5
8-12 1.4% 4.2% 4.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 37.2% 21.4% 15.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.8 3.8 6.0 11.2 8.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 62.8 20.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 3.4 8.1 14.6 28.5 28.5 16.9 2.7 0.8