New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#55
Expected Predictive Rating+19.2#9
Pace77.1#27
Improvement+0.2#60

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#39
First Shot+5.0#50
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#107
Layup/Dunks+7.1#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#350
Freethrows+4.8#13
Improvement+0.0#205

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#86
First Shot+2.2#113
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#135
Layups/Dunks+2.5#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#260
Freethrows+2.7#54
Improvement+0.2#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 2.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 8.5% 8.8% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.7% 54.5% 27.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.0% 47.8% 21.2%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 10.1
.500 or above 99.6% 99.7% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.7% 87.0% 75.6%
Conference Champion 17.1% 17.3% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 1.6%
First Four11.4% 11.5% 6.8%
First Round47.5% 48.2% 23.9%
Second Round21.1% 21.5% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 6.0% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.0% 1.1%
Final Four0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 23 - 25 - 5
Quad 36 - 212 - 7
Quad 49 - 021 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 179   Southern Utah W 89-81 88%     1 - 0 +4.5 +2.9 +0.7
  Nov 11, 2022 144   South Alabama W 80-74 84%     2 - 0 +4.6 +4.2 +0.2
  Nov 15, 2022 153   @ SMU W 84-63 70%     3 - 0 +24.9 +8.4 +14.7
  Nov 25, 2022 219   Jacksonville St. W 79-61 92%     4 - 0 +11.8 +2.2 +9.6
  Nov 26, 2022 302   North Dakota St. W 76-55 96%     5 - 0 +10.3 -5.0 +14.7
  Nov 27, 2022 253   Northern Colorado W 98-74 93%     6 - 0 +16.5 +11.3 +4.0
  Nov 30, 2022 32   @ St. Mary's W 69-65 28%     7 - 0 +19.4 +8.8 +10.7
  Dec 10, 2022 308   Texas San Antonio W 86-65 97%    
  Dec 18, 2022 84   Iona W 82-76 70%    
  Dec 20, 2022 266   Prairie View W 85-68 95%    
  Dec 28, 2022 74   Colorado St. W 76-71 66%    
  Dec 31, 2022 148   @ Wyoming W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 03, 2023 155   @ Fresno St. W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 07, 2023 77   UNLV W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 14, 2023 25   @ San Diego St. L 72-79 25%    
  Jan 17, 2023 183   San Jose St. W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 20, 2023 63   Boise St. W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 23, 2023 69   @ Nevada L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 27, 2023 225   Air Force W 76-60 92%    
  Feb 01, 2023 48   @ Utah St. L 81-85 37%    
  Feb 07, 2023 69   Nevada W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 10, 2023 225   @ Air Force W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 14, 2023 148   Wyoming W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 17, 2023 183   @ San Jose St. W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 22, 2023 63   @ Boise St. L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 25, 2023 25   San Diego St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 28, 2023 155   Fresno St. W 73-62 84%    
  Mar 03, 2023 74   @ Colorado St. L 73-74 45%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.0 4.8 3.2 1.1 0.2 17.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 4.3 7.5 4.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 7.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.3 3.0 0.3 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 2.1 0.3 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.7 6.3 9.5 12.8 14.4 15.0 13.6 10.4 6.3 3.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.5% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 95.9% 3.2    2.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 76.4% 4.8    3.3 1.4 0.1
14-4 48.6% 5.0    2.4 2.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 16.8% 2.3    0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 10.3 4.9 1.6 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.3% 99.2% 29.0% 70.2% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
15-3 6.3% 97.5% 21.7% 75.8% 6.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.8%
14-4 10.4% 93.5% 19.1% 74.5% 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.7 92.0%
13-5 13.6% 83.2% 15.4% 67.8% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 3.5 2.0 0.2 2.3 80.1%
12-6 15.0% 65.3% 12.9% 52.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 5.2 60.1%
11-7 14.4% 47.2% 10.6% 36.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.5 1.1 0.0 7.6 40.9%
10-8 12.8% 26.7% 8.6% 18.1% 11.2 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.2 0.1 9.4 19.8%
9-9 9.5% 13.2% 6.5% 6.7% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 8.3 7.2%
8-10 6.3% 6.1% 5.3% 0.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.0 0.8%
7-11 3.7% 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.1%
6-12 2.0% 4.6% 4.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 53.7% 12.6% 41.1% 9.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.3 3.6 4.3 5.4 8.3 10.5 12.0 4.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 46.3 47.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.3 20.0 40.0 34.3 2.9 2.9