Big West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
81 UC Irvine 46.9%   13   20 - 8 14 - 3 23 - 8 17 - 3 +7.1      +1.5 129 +5.5 38 71.0 105 +6.4 91 +7.4 1
114 UC San Diego 19.7%   16 - 10 13 - 4 19 - 11 15 - 5 +3.6      +4.0 84 -0.3 182 64.4 295 +2.4 128 +6.0 2
161 Long Beach St. 7.2%   16 - 11 10 - 7 17 - 13 11 - 9 +0.1      +0.7 166 -0.6 187 78.7 14 +1.4 144 +0.5 4
164 Hawaii 6.9%   14 - 13 8 - 9 16 - 14 10 - 10 0.0      -0.4 192 +0.4 153 65.2 275 -1.3 179 -1.7 7
177 UC Santa Barbara 5.3%   13 - 12 8 - 9 15 - 13 10 - 10 -0.9      +1.1 149 -2.0 233 67.6 210 -1.5 189 -2.3 8
181 UC Davis 4.5%   15 - 12 12 - 6 16 - 13 13 - 7 -1.2      -3.2 265 +2.0 115 68.9 169 -0.9 177 +2.2 3
212 UC Riverside 2.8%   11 - 16 8 - 9 12 - 18 9 - 11 -2.8      -1.4 218 -1.4 216 66.8 238 -2.9 223 -1.7 6
217 Cal St. Bakersfield 2.4%   10 - 17 7 - 11 11 - 18 8 - 12 -3.0      -3.2 263 +0.2 165 62.5 331 -4.3 245 -3.8 9
223 Cal St. Fullerton 2.3%   11 - 16 6 - 11 12 - 18 7 - 13 -3.2      -4.1 281 +0.9 146 64.9 284 -2.9 222 -5.3 10
236 Cal St. Northridge 2.0%   16 - 12 9 - 9 17 - 13 10 - 10 -3.7      -3.5 270 -0.1 176 79.3 12 -0.7 171 -1.5 5
335 Cal Poly 0.0%   3 - 25 0 - 17 3 - 28 0 - 20 -11.7      -9.1 349 -2.6 251 65.1 279 -13.2 344 -20.1 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 1.0 97.4 2.6
UC San Diego 1.8 21.1 78.8 0.2
Long Beach St. 3.7 0.0 38.4 54.3 5.8 1.5
Hawaii 5.6 15.7 44.8 17.9 13.0 5.9 2.7 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 6.1 13.9 23.5 25.9 20.2 13.4 2.9 0.2
UC Davis 3.0 0.0 3.4 90.0 6.6
UC Riverside 6.2 7.3 30.5 21.0 20.3 16.8 3.8 0.4
Cal St. Bakersfield 8.5 0.5 5.7 10.9 17.5 57.2 8.3
Cal St. Fullerton 9.4 0.2 2.1 2.6 10.5 24.4 60.2
Cal St. Northridge 6.0 6.5 29.9 28.0 29.1 6.5
Cal Poly 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 17 - 3 0.1 5.2 33.4 61.3
UC San Diego 15 - 5 0.4 9.6 40.9 49.1
Long Beach St. 11 - 9 10.6 38.9 42.2 8.4
Hawaii 10 - 10 4.5 23.9 44.5 27.1
UC Santa Barbara 10 - 10 12.1 38.0 37.4 12.5
UC Davis 13 - 7 51.7 40.3 8.0
UC Riverside 9 - 11 13.3 38.8 36.7 11.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 21.6 57.8 20.5
Cal St. Fullerton 7 - 13 23.4 44.0 27.3 5.4
Cal St. Northridge 10 - 10 48.8 41.5 9.7
Cal Poly 0 - 20 66.3 31.7 2.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 97.4% 78.9 18.5 0.0
UC San Diego 21.1% 2.6 18.5 0.0
Long Beach St.
Hawaii
UC Santa Barbara
UC Davis 0.0% 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield
Cal St. Fullerton
Cal St. Northridge
Cal Poly


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 46.9% 46.9% 0.0% 13   0.0 5.5 29.1 11.8 0.4 0.0 53.1 0.0%
UC San Diego 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.1 3.8 10.9 4.6 0.3 80.3 0.0%
Long Beach St. 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.9 0.1 92.8 0.0%
Hawaii 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.8 1.3 93.1 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 1.2 94.7 0.0%
UC Davis 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 0.7 95.5 0.0%
UC Riverside 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.2 2.6 97.2 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 2.4 97.6 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.6 98.0 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
UC Irvine 46.9% 0.0% 46.9% 11.5% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 19.7% 0.0% 19.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 6.9% 0.4% 6.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 5.3% 0.4% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 4.5% 0.1% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.9% 1.0 3.1 96.9
2nd Round 15.0% 0.1 85.0 15.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0