Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.7#335
Expected Predictive Rating-13.2#344
Pace65.1#279
Improvement-0.8#226

Offense
Total Offense-9.1#349
First Shot-8.2#351
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#242
Layup/Dunks-6.4#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#343
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement-1.3#263

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#251
First Shot-2.4#258
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#211
Layups/Dunks-3.3#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#96
Freethrows-3.0#336
Improvement+0.5#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 29.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 141 - 17
Quad 42 - 103 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 278   @ Denver L 76-97 21%     0 - 1 -24.1 -6.9 -16.1
  Nov 11, 2023 176   @ Wyoming L 66-80 11%     0 - 2 -12.1 -9.6 -2.1
  Nov 17, 2023 166   St. Thomas W 61-60 14%     1 - 2 +0.8 +2.1 -1.0
  Nov 18, 2023 250   Portland St. L 57-73 25%     1 - 3 -20.5 -13.4 -7.8
  Nov 19, 2023 186   @ California Baptist L 58-67 12%     1 - 4 -7.8 -5.7 -3.3
  Nov 29, 2023 225   San Jose St. W 81-77 OT 29%     2 - 4 -1.9 +4.7 -6.5
  Dec 02, 2023 311   @ Idaho L 70-85 28%     2 - 5 -20.6 -1.2 -20.3
  Dec 04, 2023 137   @ Oregon St. L 63-70 2OT 7%     2 - 6 -2.4 -13.5 +11.8
  Dec 09, 2023 155   @ Weber St. L 50-78 9%     2 - 7 -24.6 -19.5 -6.5
  Dec 18, 2023 136   Eastern Washington L 53-62 15%     2 - 8 -9.8 -17.8 +7.0
  Dec 21, 2023 264   Nebraska Omaha W 66-53 36%     3 - 8 +5.1 -8.4 +14.3
  Dec 28, 2023 236   Cal St. Northridge L 73-83 30%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -16.4 -6.5 -9.1
  Dec 30, 2023 181   @ UC Davis L 46-71 11%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -23.5 -16.7 -10.5
  Jan 04, 2024 161   Long Beach St. L 82-89 19%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -9.6 +0.0 -8.9
  Jan 06, 2024 177   UC Santa Barbara L 52-61 22%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -12.6 -17.5 +3.7
  Jan 11, 2024 212   @ UC Riverside L 56-71 14%     3 - 13 0 - 5 -15.1 -11.2 -5.4
  Jan 13, 2024 114   UC San Diego L 61-86 12%     3 - 14 0 - 6 -24.1 -10.7 -14.5
  Jan 20, 2024 217   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 53-65 14%     3 - 15 0 - 7 -12.3 -12.7 -0.9
  Jan 25, 2024 223   Cal St. Fullerton L 51-54 29%     3 - 16 0 - 8 -8.9 -14.5 +5.2
  Jan 27, 2024 164   @ Hawaii L 73-83 10%     3 - 17 0 - 9 -7.3 -2.8 -3.9
  Feb 01, 2024 81   UC Irvine L 59-73 8%     3 - 18 0 - 10 -9.6 -5.5 -5.1
  Feb 03, 2024 181   UC Davis L 52-59 23%     3 - 19 0 - 11 -10.9 -13.9 +2.1
  Feb 08, 2024 236   @ Cal St. Northridge L 65-78 16%     3 - 20 0 - 12 -14.0 -13.4 +0.8
  Feb 10, 2024 161   @ Long Beach St. L 68-77 9%     3 - 21 0 - 13 -6.2 -9.4 +4.0
  Feb 15, 2024 164   Hawaii L 51-80 20%     3 - 22 0 - 14 -31.7 -21.8 -10.5
  Feb 22, 2024 223   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 50-68 15%     3 - 23 0 - 15 -18.5 -12.5 -8.9
  Feb 24, 2024 212   UC Riverside L 78-84 28%     3 - 24 0 - 16 -11.5 +7.6 -19.5
  Feb 29, 2024 177   @ UC Santa Barbara L 75-83 11%     3 - 25 0 - 17 -6.1 +2.8 -9.1
  Mar 02, 2024 217   Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-66 30%    
  Mar 07, 2024 81   @ UC Irvine L 56-77 2%    
  Mar 09, 2024 114   @ UC San Diego L 58-76 4%    
Projected Record 3 - 28 0 - 20





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 66.3 31.7 2.0 0.0 100.0 11th
Total 66.3 31.7 2.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 31.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 31.7
0-20 66.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 66.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 66.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0