UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#78
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#83
Pace71.5#123
Improvement+0.2#166

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#133
First Shot+0.4#169
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#116
Layup/Dunks+3.0#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#287
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement+0.6#126

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#38
First Shot+7.3#14
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#305
Layups/Dunks+4.8#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#20
Freethrows-1.8#289
Improvement-0.4#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 2.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.7% 53.1% 42.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% 5.8% 1.3%
Average Seed 11.7 11.0 12.0
.500 or above 98.8% 99.8% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.7% 98.6%
Conference Champion 59.3% 67.3% 57.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 1.4% 0.5%
First Round44.4% 52.5% 42.2%
Second Round12.3% 17.9% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 5.3% 3.0%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 21.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 22 - 5
Quad 36 - 39 - 8
Quad 413 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 146   @ San Jose St. L 64-72 61%     0 - 1 -3.9 -8.6 +5.1
  Nov 11, 2023 254   New Mexico St. W 91-74 91%     1 - 1 +9.0 +7.6 +0.5
  Nov 14, 2023 32   @ USC W 70-60 22%     2 - 1 +25.0 +4.1 +20.9
  Nov 21, 2023 182   Pepperdine W 76-60 77%     3 - 1 +15.1 +5.0 +10.9
  Nov 22, 2023 120   Toledo W 77-71 65%     4 - 1 +9.0 +2.8 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2023 237   Rice W 83-68 84%     5 - 1 +11.3 +3.8 +7.0
  Nov 29, 2023 85   @ Duquesne L 62-66 42%     5 - 2 +5.1 -5.8 +10.7
  Dec 02, 2023 56   @ Utah St. L 69-79 31%     5 - 3 +1.9 +6.6 -5.4
  Dec 09, 2023 28   @ San Diego St. L 64-73 21%    
  Dec 16, 2023 289   South Dakota W 82-65 95%    
  Dec 20, 2023 42   @ New Mexico L 73-80 25%    
  Dec 28, 2023 195   UC Riverside W 75-64 85%    
  Dec 30, 2023 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-60 83%    
  Jan 04, 2024 201   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 06, 2024 211   UC Davis W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 12, 2024 118   @ Hawaii W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 18, 2024 236   UC San Diego W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 20, 2024 211   @ UC Davis W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 25, 2024 139   @ Long Beach St. W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 27, 2024 272   Cal St. Northridge W 82-66 92%    
  Feb 01, 2024 332   @ Cal Poly W 75-60 90%    
  Feb 03, 2024 118   Hawaii W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 08, 2024 154   @ UC Santa Barbara W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 10, 2024 195   @ UC Riverside W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 17, 2024 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-57 93%    
  Feb 22, 2024 154   UC Santa Barbara W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 24, 2024 236   @ UC San Diego W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 29, 2024 272   @ Cal St. Northridge W 79-69 81%    
  Mar 02, 2024 139   Long Beach St. W 82-74 76%    
  Mar 07, 2024 332   Cal Poly W 78-57 97%    
  Mar 09, 2024 201   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 70-64 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.5 11.8 15.5 12.5 8.3 2.6 59.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.4 6.6 4.8 1.5 0.2 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 3.3 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.2 0.8 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.5 7.2 11.0 14.5 16.8 16.9 12.7 8.3 2.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
19-1 100.0% 8.3    8.2 0.1
18-2 98.3% 12.5    11.7 0.8
17-3 91.3% 15.5    13.1 2.3 0.1
16-4 70.4% 11.8    7.9 3.5 0.4
15-5 45.1% 6.5    2.9 2.8 0.8 0.0
14-6 17.3% 1.9    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 59.3% 59.3 46.9 10.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.6% 87.9% 72.8% 15.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 55.4%
19-1 8.3% 73.2% 67.2% 6.0% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.8 1.2 0.1 2.2 18.4%
18-2 12.7% 59.2% 57.5% 1.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.4 3.2 0.4 5.2 4.1%
17-3 16.9% 52.3% 51.7% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.5 1.1 0.0 8.1 1.1%
16-4 16.8% 43.8% 43.6% 0.2% 12.1 1.0 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.3%
15-5 14.5% 38.0% 38.0% 12.3 0.4 3.1 1.7 0.3 9.0
14-6 11.0% 32.8% 32.8% 12.7 0.0 1.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.4
13-7 7.2% 24.7% 24.7% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.4
12-8 4.5% 22.6% 22.6% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.5
11-9 2.8% 15.4% 15.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.4
10-10 1.6% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
9-11 0.7% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
7-13 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
5-15
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 44.7% 43.5% 1.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.8 10.4 19.8 8.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 55.3 2.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 93.1% 4.5 3.4 10.9 6.9 25.9 15.5 23.6 4.0 2.9