UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#199
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#230
Pace70.9#145
Improvement-2.1#340

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#228
First Shot-6.9#341
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#5
Layup/Dunks-5.6#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#184
Freethrows-1.7#276
Improvement-2.8#353

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#171
First Shot-2.1#247
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#55
Layups/Dunks-1.4#241
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#229
Freethrows+1.3#104
Improvement+0.6#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.8% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 50.0% 68.0% 42.0%
.500 or above in Conference 58.8% 68.3% 54.6%
Conference Champion 3.9% 5.8% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.7% 4.0%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round4.1% 5.6% 3.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 185   Pepperdine W 79-78 60%     1 - 0 -3.5 -0.8 -2.7
  Nov 12, 2023 195   @ Montana L 65-78 38%     1 - 1 -11.7 -3.3 -9.5
  Nov 14, 2023 215   North Dakota St. W 68-53 53%     2 - 1 +12.5 +4.6 +10.6
  Nov 26, 2023 270   Sacramento St. L 63-69 75%     2 - 2 -14.8 -15.0 +0.3
  Nov 30, 2023 157   @ Oregon St. L 64-69 31%    
  Dec 06, 2023 41   @ Nevada L 64-80 7%    
  Dec 09, 2023 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-74 73%    
  Dec 16, 2023 279   @ Pacific W 74-73 55%    
  Dec 19, 2023 195   Montana W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 28, 2023 159   UC Santa Barbara W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 30, 2023 331   Cal Poly W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 04, 2024 227   @ UC Riverside L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 06, 2024 69   @ UC Irvine L 65-78 13%    
  Jan 11, 2024 299   Cal St. Northridge W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 13, 2024 288   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 18, 2024 203   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 20, 2024 69   UC Irvine L 68-75 28%    
  Jan 27, 2024 245   UC San Diego W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 01, 2024 159   @ UC Santa Barbara L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 03, 2024 331   @ Cal Poly W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 08, 2024 203   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 11, 2024 118   @ Hawaii L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 15, 2024 136   Long Beach St. L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 227   UC Riverside W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 22, 2024 299   @ Cal St. Northridge W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 24, 2024 288   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 29, 2024 118   Hawaii L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 07, 2024 245   @ UC San Diego L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 09, 2024 136   @ Long Beach St. L 75-82 28%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.3 2.7 0.9 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.0 4.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.8 5.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.7 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 3.5 0.9 0.1 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.3 7.2 10.6 11.5 12.2 12.2 10.4 9.2 6.3 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.0% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 77.4% 0.9    0.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 46.8% 1.2    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.0% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 39.7% 36.8% 2.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.7%
18-2 0.5% 30.8% 30.8% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.2% 27.5% 27.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-4 2.5% 17.0% 17.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1
15-5 4.3% 12.4% 12.4% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.7
14-6 6.3% 10.3% 10.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.6
13-7 9.2% 6.7% 6.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.6
12-8 10.4% 4.3% 4.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.9
11-9 12.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 11.8
10-10 12.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.9
9-11 11.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.3
8-12 10.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.5
7-13 7.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.1
6-14 5.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.3
5-15 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-16 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 95.7 0.0%