UC San Diego
Big West
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#245
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#281
Pace65.7#277
Improvement-2.6#351

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#175
First Shot+1.1#150
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#235
Layup/Dunks+2.1#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#141
Freethrows+1.9#72
Improvement-2.1#346

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#308
First Shot-4.0#291
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#212
Layups/Dunks-2.2#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#303
Freethrows+0.8#139
Improvement-0.5#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.1% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 25.7% 35.1% 15.6%
.500 or above in Conference 36.7% 42.3% 30.7%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.7% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 8.9% 6.8% 11.2%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round1.4% 1.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 51.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 49 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 254   Denver W 95-87 64%     1 - 0 +0.0 +10.2 -10.5
  Nov 11, 2023 197   San Diego W 74-73 52%    
  Nov 18, 2023 314   Navy W 73-55 75%     2 - 0 +6.5 +2.9 +5.0
  Nov 24, 2023 349   Idaho L 70-73 OT 79%     2 - 1 -15.9 -14.3 -1.4
  Nov 26, 2023 132   @ Seattle L 67-79 18%     2 - 2 -6.6 +7.7 -15.9
  Nov 28, 2023 65   @ Washington L 68-84 7%    
  Dec 01, 2023 22   San Diego St. L 63-78 9%    
  Dec 09, 2023 185   @ Pepperdine L 73-79 29%    
  Dec 18, 2023 270   @ Sacramento St. L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 20, 2023 153   @ California L 67-75 23%    
  Dec 28, 2023 288   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-64 69%    
  Jan 04, 2024 159   @ UC Santa Barbara L 70-78 25%    
  Jan 06, 2024 203   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 11, 2024 136   Long Beach St. L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 13, 2024 331   @ Cal Poly W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 18, 2024 69   @ UC Irvine L 64-79 9%    
  Jan 20, 2024 118   Hawaii L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 25, 2024 227   UC Riverside W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 199   @ UC Davis L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 01, 2024 299   Cal St. Northridge W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 03, 2024 136   @ Long Beach St. L 74-83 21%    
  Feb 09, 2024 118   @ Hawaii L 65-76 17%    
  Feb 15, 2024 159   UC Santa Barbara L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 17, 2024 203   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 22, 2024 227   @ UC Riverside L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 24, 2024 69   UC Irvine L 67-76 21%    
  Feb 29, 2024 288   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-67 48%    
  Mar 02, 2024 299   @ Cal St. Northridge W 75-74 50%    
  Mar 07, 2024 199   UC Davis W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 09, 2024 331   Cal Poly W 71-61 80%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 4.4 1.5 0.1 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.6 4.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.6 4.3 1.2 0.1 14.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.9 3.2 0.8 0.1 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.6 9.4 11.7 12.8 12.4 10.7 9.0 6.7 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 84.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1
16-4 46.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
14-6 7.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.1
17-3 0.2% 14.6% 14.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.9% 13.8% 13.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
15-5 1.5% 10.8% 10.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-6 2.9% 6.6% 6.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
13-7 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
12-8 6.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
11-9 9.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.8
10-10 10.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.5
9-11 12.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.3
8-12 12.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.7
7-13 11.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.7
6-14 9.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.4
5-15 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
4-16 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.9
3-17 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 98.3 0.0%