Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#236
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#171
Pace79.3#12
Improvement-1.2#239

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#270
First Shot-3.8#289
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#153
Layup/Dunks+7.3#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#194
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.8#359
Freethrows-1.0#255
Improvement-1.2#254

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#176
First Shot+0.0#173
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#204
Layups/Dunks+4.3#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#231
Freethrows-4.7#358
Improvement+0.0#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 51.2% 100.0% 25.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.9% 2.3% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 34.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 413 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 101   @ Stanford L 79-88 14%     0 - 1 -1.3 +0.2 -0.4
  Nov 09, 2023 311   @ Idaho W 76-73 58%     1 - 1 -2.6 -2.3 -0.4
  Nov 14, 2023 300   @ Chicago St. W 74-64 55%     2 - 1 +5.1 +2.6 +2.8
  Nov 21, 2023 319   Le Moyne L 70-80 79%     2 - 2 -22.2 -11.0 -10.9
  Nov 24, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 84-48 96%     3 - 2 +11.3 -0.9 +10.7
  Nov 29, 2023 342   @ Pacific W 80-69 73%     4 - 2 +1.0 -4.2 +4.4
  Dec 02, 2023 202   @ Northern Colorado L 71-75 35%     4 - 3 -3.7 -14.9 +11.8
  Dec 11, 2023 277   Utah Tech W 80-75 68%     5 - 3 -3.5 +3.8 -7.4
  Dec 19, 2023 88   @ UCLA W 76-72 12%     6 - 3 +13.1 +3.9 +8.9
  Dec 22, 2023 252   Montana St. W 82-70 64%     7 - 3 +4.7 +1.8 +2.1
  Dec 28, 2023 335   @ Cal Poly W 83-73 70%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +1.0 +3.0 -2.7
  Dec 30, 2023 161   @ Long Beach St. W 84-68 27%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +18.8 +1.1 +15.7
  Jan 06, 2024 164   Hawaii W 76-66 46%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +7.3 +0.8 +6.3
  Jan 11, 2024 181   @ UC Davis L 75-95 31%     10 - 4 3 - 1 -18.5 +2.1 -19.7
  Jan 13, 2024 223   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-71 59%     11 - 4 4 - 1 -0.9 -1.2 +0.1
  Jan 18, 2024 177   UC Santa Barbara L 69-97 50%     11 - 5 4 - 2 -31.6 -11.0 -19.0
  Jan 20, 2024 212   @ UC Riverside L 63-82 36%     11 - 6 4 - 3 -19.1 -7.5 -12.3
  Jan 25, 2024 217   Cal St. Bakersfield L 56-64 58%     11 - 7 4 - 4 -13.7 -18.1 +4.4
  Jan 27, 2024 81   @ UC Irvine L 72-77 11%     11 - 8 4 - 5 +4.8 +2.3 +2.8
  Feb 01, 2024 114   @ UC San Diego L 62-83 17%     11 - 9 4 - 6 -14.7 -9.4 -5.4
  Feb 03, 2024 212   UC Riverside W 76-70 57%     12 - 9 5 - 6 +0.5 -1.3 +1.7
  Feb 08, 2024 335   Cal Poly W 78-65 84%     13 - 9 6 - 6 -1.4 -7.0 +4.2
  Feb 10, 2024 177   @ UC Santa Barbara W 82-74 30%     14 - 9 7 - 6 +9.9 +10.1 -0.1
  Feb 15, 2024 217   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-71 37%     15 - 9 8 - 6 +4.7 +12.5 -7.3
  Feb 17, 2024 161   Long Beach St. L 73-87 46%     15 - 10 8 - 7 -16.6 -7.9 -7.5
  Feb 22, 2024 181   UC Davis L 65-66 51%     15 - 11 8 - 8 -4.9 -5.4 +0.5
  Feb 24, 2024 223   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 65-60 38%     16 - 11 9 - 8 +4.5 -2.5 +7.3
  Feb 29, 2024 81   UC Irvine L 64-89 22%     16 - 12 9 - 9 -20.6 -12.8 -4.7
  Mar 02, 2024 114   UC San Diego L 73-78 34%    
  Mar 07, 2024 164   @ Hawaii L 70-76 27%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 1.8 4.8 6.5 4th
5th 0.6 24.3 4.9 29.9 5th
6th 13.3 14.7 28.0 6th
7th 28.3 0.8 29.1 7th
8th 6.5 6.5 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 48.8 41.5 9.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 9.7% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.4
10-10 41.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 40.6
9-11 48.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 48.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.6 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.2
Lose Out 48.8% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.8 0.8