Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#217
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#245
Pace62.5#331
Improvement+6.9#4

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#263
First Shot-5.2#314
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#66
Layup/Dunks-3.0#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.2#357
Freethrows-0.4#199
Improvement+1.4#108

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#165
First Shot-2.4#262
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#15
Layups/Dunks+3.2#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#255
Freethrows-1.9#300
Improvement+5.5#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.6% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 2.5% 1.9%
First Round1.5% 1.7% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 33 - 83 - 14
Quad 48 - 411 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 237   Southern Utah W 73-72 63%     1 - 0 -5.4 +1.5 -6.9
  Nov 09, 2023 97   @ USC L 59-85 14%     1 - 1 -17.4 -8.2 -9.6
  Nov 13, 2023 100   @ California L 63-83 15%     1 - 2 -12.1 -4.0 -8.8
  Nov 20, 2023 320   Sacramento St. W 75-71 73%     2 - 2 -5.5 +2.6 -7.8
  Nov 22, 2023 130   Tarleton St. L 40-59 30%     2 - 3 -16.5 -21.2 -0.6
  Nov 28, 2023 16   @ Gonzaga L 65-81 4%     2 - 4 +1.9 +1.1 +0.2
  Dec 09, 2023 310   @ South Dakota L 73-78 60%     2 - 5 -10.6 -0.6 -10.3
  Dec 15, 2023 178   @ Fresno St. L 58-61 32%     2 - 6 -1.3 -6.7 +5.0
  Dec 19, 2023 310   South Dakota W 96-76 78%     3 - 6 +9.0 +15.0 -6.1
  Dec 28, 2023 114   @ UC San Diego L 64-76 19%     3 - 7 0 - 1 -5.7 -4.4 -1.9
  Dec 30, 2023 81   UC Irvine L 56-75 24%     3 - 8 0 - 2 -14.6 -8.8 -7.1
  Jan 04, 2024 164   Hawaii L 67-78 49%     3 - 9 0 - 3 -13.7 -3.1 -11.3
  Jan 11, 2024 177   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-66 OT 32%     3 - 10 0 - 4 -0.1 -11.7 +11.6
  Jan 13, 2024 181   @ UC Davis L 71-78 OT 33%     3 - 11 0 - 5 -5.5 -2.1 -3.1
  Jan 18, 2024 212   UC Riverside W 80-56 60%     4 - 11 1 - 5 +18.5 +7.4 +12.0
  Jan 20, 2024 335   Cal Poly W 65-53 86%     5 - 11 2 - 5 -2.4 -5.0 +3.8
  Jan 25, 2024 236   @ Cal St. Northridge W 64-56 42%     6 - 11 3 - 5 +7.0 -7.8 +14.8
  Jan 27, 2024 223   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 50-68 40%     6 - 12 3 - 6 -18.5 -18.0 -1.3
  Feb 01, 2024 161   Long Beach St. W 82-76 OT 48%     7 - 12 4 - 6 +3.4 +3.0 +0.1
  Feb 03, 2024 177   UC Santa Barbara L 59-70 52%     7 - 13 4 - 7 -14.6 -8.9 -7.2
  Feb 08, 2024 212   @ UC Riverside L 63-65 39%     7 - 14 4 - 8 -2.1 -7.2 +5.1
  Feb 10, 2024 223   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-71 61%     8 - 14 5 - 8 -3.9 +2.5 -6.3
  Feb 15, 2024 236   Cal St. Northridge L 71-76 63%     8 - 15 5 - 9 -11.4 +3.9 -15.8
  Feb 17, 2024 81   @ UC Irvine L 71-77 12%     8 - 16 5 - 10 +3.8 +6.9 -3.2
  Feb 22, 2024 161   @ Long Beach St. L 66-79 29%     8 - 17 5 - 11 -10.2 -6.4 -3.7
  Feb 24, 2024 181   UC Davis W 75-56 54%     9 - 17 6 - 11 +15.1 +11.6 +5.7
  Feb 29, 2024 114   UC San Diego W 70-57 35%     10 - 17 7 - 11 +13.9 -1.9 +16.3
  Mar 02, 2024 335   @ Cal Poly W 66-60 70%    
  Mar 10, 2024 164   @ Hawaii L 62-68 28%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.5 0.5 5th
6th 5.7 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 10.7 10.9 7th
8th 14.0 3.6 17.5 8th
9th 14.6 42.5 0.0 57.2 9th
10th 7.0 1.3 8.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 21.6 57.8 20.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 20.5% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7 19.9
8-12 57.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 1.4 56.4
7-13 21.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 21.3
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.5% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
Lose Out 21.6% 1.7% 16.0 1.7