UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#195
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#268
Pace67.0#241
Improvement+3.2#20

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#202
First Shot-1.5#220
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#154
Layup/Dunks-3.1#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.0#7
Freethrows-4.8#352
Improvement+2.8#13

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#187
First Shot+1.2#134
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#293
Layups/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#142
Freethrows-0.4#217
Improvement+0.5#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 6.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 39.3% 44.9% 21.9%
.500 or above in Conference 58.9% 62.0% 49.3%
Conference Champion 4.5% 5.0% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.1% 5.2%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.3%
First Round4.9% 5.4% 3.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 63 - 12
Quad 410 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 38   @ Utah L 53-82 8%     0 - 1 -14.6 -13.7 -0.7
  Nov 12, 2023 171   @ Portland L 65-76 34%     0 - 2 -8.3 -8.4 +0.0
  Nov 17, 2023 14   @ North Carolina L 52-77 4%     0 - 3 -6.5 -14.0 +7.4
  Nov 21, 2023 287   Green Bay W 74-68 70%     1 - 3 -0.9 +6.5 -6.8
  Nov 22, 2023 227   @ Montana St. L 68-69 44%     1 - 4 -1.1 +4.1 -5.2
  Nov 30, 2023 41   @ UCLA L 65-66 8%     1 - 5 +13.2 +6.7 +6.5
  Dec 03, 2023 266   North Dakota W 73-66 75%    
  Dec 06, 2023 62   @ Washington St. L 62-75 11%    
  Dec 16, 2023 152   California Baptist W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 21, 2023 335   Idaho W 76-63 88%    
  Dec 28, 2023 78   @ UC Irvine L 64-75 15%    
  Dec 30, 2023 154   UC Santa Barbara W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 04, 2024 211   UC Davis W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 139   @ Long Beach St. L 74-80 29%    
  Jan 11, 2024 332   Cal Poly W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 14, 2024 118   @ Hawaii L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 18, 2024 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 20, 2024 272   Cal St. Northridge W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 25, 2024 236   @ UC San Diego L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 27, 2024 139   Long Beach St. L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 03, 2024 272   @ Cal St. Northridge W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 08, 2024 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-60 76%    
  Feb 10, 2024 78   UC Irvine L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 15, 2024 201   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 17, 2024 211   @ UC Davis L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 22, 2024 236   UC San Diego W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 24, 2024 332   @ Cal Poly W 70-64 71%    
  Mar 02, 2024 118   Hawaii L 67-69 45%    
  Mar 07, 2024 201   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-65 61%    
  Mar 09, 2024 154   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-74 34%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.7 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.3 2.7 0.7 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.2 5.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.4 5.2 2.0 0.2 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.3 4.5 1.5 0.2 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.4 3.6 1.4 0.1 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.4 5.6 7.5 10.3 11.6 11.9 12.8 10.9 8.9 6.4 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.4% 0.3    0.3 0.1
17-3 87.3% 1.0    0.7 0.3
16-4 50.7% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1
15-5 26.5% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 53.8% 53.8% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.3% 38.2% 38.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.2% 31.1% 31.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8
16-4 2.5% 22.3% 22.3% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.9
15-5 3.9% 15.3% 15.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.3
14-6 6.4% 10.8% 10.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.7
13-7 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 8.1
12-8 10.9% 5.9% 5.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 10.2
11-9 12.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 12.1
10-10 11.9% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.5
9-11 11.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.4
8-12 10.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 10.1
7-13 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.5
6-14 5.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.5
5-15 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-16 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 94.6 0.0%