Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#201
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#168
Pace64.8#300
Improvement+2.1#52

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#249
First Shot-2.2#241
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#183
Layup/Dunks+1.0#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#333
Freethrows+2.6#48
Improvement+1.8#55

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#151
First Shot+0.1#170
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#149
Layups/Dunks-1.0#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#308
Freethrows+1.6#97
Improvement+0.3#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 6.0% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 43.2% 58.9% 34.4%
.500 or above in Conference 57.4% 65.8% 52.7%
Conference Champion 4.0% 5.7% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.2% 4.1%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.2%
First Round4.2% 5.6% 3.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 35.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 410 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 28   @ San Diego St. L 57-83 6%     0 - 1 -10.6 -11.5 +3.1
  Nov 16, 2023 79   @ Central Florida L 44-72 15%     0 - 2 -18.5 -20.2 +0.8
  Nov 19, 2023 121   Cornell L 70-88 33%     0 - 3 -15.1 -12.2 -1.1
  Nov 20, 2023 185   Southern Miss W 74-67 47%     1 - 3 +5.9 +7.6 -1.0
  Nov 26, 2023 48   @ Nebraska L 72-85 9%     1 - 4 +0.0 +6.5 -7.1
  Dec 01, 2023 266   North Dakota W 64-54 75%     2 - 4 +1.4 -4.1 +6.8
  Dec 06, 2023 182   @ Pepperdine L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 09, 2023 269   @ Sacramento St. W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 17, 2023 76   @ Boise St. L 59-71 13%    
  Dec 20, 2023 311   Pacific W 73-63 81%    
  Dec 28, 2023 139   Long Beach St. L 74-75 49%    
  Dec 31, 2023 118   @ Hawaii L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 04, 2024 78   @ UC Irvine L 61-73 14%    
  Jan 06, 2024 236   UC San Diego W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 13, 2024 272   @ Cal St. Northridge W 71-70 56%    
  Jan 18, 2024 211   UC Davis W 70-67 62%    
  Jan 20, 2024 154   @ UC Santa Barbara L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 25, 2024 332   @ Cal Poly W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 27, 2024 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-58 76%    
  Feb 01, 2024 118   Hawaii L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 08, 2024 211   @ UC Davis L 67-70 42%    
  Feb 10, 2024 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 15, 2024 195   UC Riverside W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 17, 2024 236   @ UC San Diego L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 22, 2024 332   Cal Poly W 70-58 85%    
  Feb 24, 2024 272   Cal St. Northridge W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 29, 2024 139   @ Long Beach St. L 71-77 28%    
  Mar 02, 2024 154   UC Santa Barbara W 70-69 53%    
  Mar 07, 2024 195   @ UC Riverside L 65-68 39%    
  Mar 09, 2024 78   UC Irvine L 64-70 31%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.4 5.3 2.4 0.4 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.9 5.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 4.4 4.9 1.6 0.1 12.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 3.9 3.5 1.3 0.2 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.7 5.6 8.0 10.0 12.6 13.1 12.3 10.8 8.0 6.0 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 96.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 85.3% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 57.4% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1
15-5 28.1% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2
14-6 7.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 35.9% 35.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.3% 28.2% 28.2% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 0.9% 23.6% 23.4% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.3%
16-4 2.0% 18.3% 18.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
15-5 3.8% 15.0% 15.0% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.2
14-6 6.0% 10.1% 10.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.4
13-7 8.0% 6.9% 6.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 7.5
12-8 10.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.3
11-9 12.3% 3.9% 3.9% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 11.8
10-10 13.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.6
9-11 12.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 12.3
8-12 10.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.8
7-13 8.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.9
6-14 5.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.5
5-15 3.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.5 95.4 0.0%