Hawaii
Big West
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#118
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#85
Pace70.8#146
Improvement+0.2#155

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#206
First Shot+3.3#87
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#355
Layup/Dunks-0.6#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#35
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#58
First Shot+5.5#36
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#256
Layups/Dunks+3.3#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#20
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement+0.3#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 25.7% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.7 12.0 12.9
.500 or above 97.0% 99.2% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 96.0% 90.9%
Conference Champion 22.1% 30.6% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 1.0% 0.2%
First Round18.7% 25.2% 17.4%
Second Round3.4% 5.6% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 16.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 414 - 220 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2023 289   Niagara W 92-73 89%     1 - 0 +9.2 +9.4 -1.2
  Nov 21, 2023 248   Northern Arizona W 70-61 85%     2 - 0 +1.5 -6.4 +7.7
  Nov 24, 2023 326   UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-57 89%     3 - 0 +9.2 -6.5 +14.5
  Nov 25, 2023 197   San Diego W 77-66 69%     4 - 0 +9.2 +1.6 +7.3
  Nov 30, 2023 40   @ Utah L 66-76 17%    
  Dec 03, 2023 341   Central Arkansas W 80-62 96%    
  Dec 17, 2023 41   Nevada L 68-72 34%    
  Dec 21, 2023 187   Portland W 77-69 77%    
  Dec 31, 2023 203   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 04, 2024 288   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-60 74%    
  Jan 06, 2024 299   @ Cal St. Northridge W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 12, 2024 69   UC Irvine L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 14, 2024 227   UC Riverside W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 18, 2024 136   @ Long Beach St. L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 20, 2024 245   @ UC San Diego W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 26, 2024 159   UC Santa Barbara W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 28, 2024 331   Cal Poly W 72-55 93%    
  Feb 01, 2024 203   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 03, 2024 69   @ UC Irvine L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 09, 2024 245   UC San Diego W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 11, 2024 199   UC Davis W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 15, 2024 331   @ Cal Poly W 69-58 84%    
  Feb 17, 2024 159   @ UC Santa Barbara W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 25, 2024 136   Long Beach St. W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 29, 2024 199   @ UC Davis W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 02, 2024 227   @ UC Riverside W 71-67 62%    
  Mar 07, 2024 299   Cal St. Northridge W 79-65 88%    
  Mar 10, 2024 288   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-57 87%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 2.4 5.0 6.3 4.6 2.3 0.6 22.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.7 8.3 6.1 2.3 0.4 26.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.1 5.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.1 0.2 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.7 7.9 10.6 12.4 14.0 13.2 11.5 8.7 4.9 2.3 0.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.2 0.1
18-2 92.5% 4.6    3.9 0.6
17-3 72.7% 6.3    4.3 1.9 0.1
16-4 43.6% 5.0    2.6 2.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 18.5% 2.4    0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.1% 22.1 14.7 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 76.5% 66.4% 10.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 29.9%
19-1 2.3% 57.9% 50.1% 7.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.0 15.5%
18-2 4.9% 43.4% 41.6% 1.9% 11.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.8 3.2%
17-3 8.7% 34.2% 33.9% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.2 5.7 0.5%
16-4 11.5% 29.2% 29.1% 0.1% 12.7 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 8.2 0.1%
15-5 13.2% 21.8% 21.8% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.0 10.3
14-6 14.0% 16.2% 16.2% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 11.7
13-7 12.4% 12.7% 12.7% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.8
12-8 10.6% 8.2% 8.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.8
11-9 7.9% 5.7% 5.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.5
10-10 5.7% 6.1% 6.1% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.4
9-11 3.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
8-12 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-13 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 18.8% 18.5% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.8 5.4 6.3 3.5 1.1 0.2 81.2 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.1 2.2 17.4 21.7 17.4 26.1 4.3 4.3 6.5