Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
52 Indiana St. 32.3%   12   24 - 5 15 - 3 25 - 5 16 - 3 +9.9      +6.9 29 +3.0 94 74.7 42 +11.8 38 +11.7 1
60 Drake 25.6%   23 - 6 14 - 4 24 - 6 15 - 4 +8.9      +6.4 33 +2.5 102 68.6 180 +9.3 64 +9.6 2
75 Bradley 17.7%   20 - 9 13 - 5 20 - 10 13 - 6 +7.4      +4.2 78 +3.3 82 65.4 271 +6.2 93 +6.8 3
120 Southern Illinois 6.1%   18 - 11 11 - 7 19 - 11 12 - 7 +3.3      +1.6 126 +1.7 123 62.3 336 +3.6 117 +4.6 4
121 Northern Iowa 5.9%   16 - 13 11 - 7 16 - 14 11 - 8 +3.1      +1.6 128 +1.5 128 66.5 245 +3.5 119 +4.3 5
123 Belmont 5.7%   17 - 12 10 - 8 18 - 12 11 - 8 +3.0      +2.7 107 +0.3 158 75.0 35 +3.9 111 +3.5 6
150 Murray St. 3.2%   11 - 18 8 - 10 11 - 19 8 - 11 +1.0      +1.3 138 -0.3 180 63.4 320 -2.3 211 -0.1 8
163 Missouri St. 2.4%   15 - 15 6 - 12 16 - 15 7 - 12 +0.1      -0.2 186 +0.3 160 69.2 157 +1.0 149 -1.3 9
172 Illinois St. 1.9%   14 - 15 8 - 10 15 - 15 9 - 10 -0.5      -2.0 231 +1.5 131 62.3 337 -0.1 160 +0.6 7
196 Illinois-Chicago 1.1%   10 - 19 4 - 14 10 - 20 4 - 15 -2.3      -3.2 262 +0.9 145 70.2 129 -3.9 241 -5.7 11
232 Evansville 0.7%   14 - 15 6 - 12 14 - 16 6 - 13 -3.5      -2.2 235 -1.4 215 71.4 96 -0.3 164 -2.6 10
304 Valparaiso 0.1%   5 - 24 2 - 16 5 - 25 2 - 17 -7.7      -4.3 288 -3.5 277 69.0 163 -10.2 322 -9.7 12






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Indiana St. 1.0 100.0
Drake 1.9 8.5 91.5
Bradley 2.7 34.1 65.9
Southern Illinois 4.4 61.4 38.6
Northern Iowa 4.6 38.6 61.4
Belmont 5.2 81.5 18.5
Murray St. 7.6 43.1 56.9
Missouri St. 9.1 94.3 5.7
Illinois St. 7.0 95.5 4.5
Illinois-Chicago 11.0 100.0
Evansville 9.6 43.6 56.4
Valparaiso 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Indiana St. 16 - 4 13.0 87.0
Drake 15 - 5 34.1 65.9
Bradley 13 - 7 65.9 34.1
Southern Illinois 12 - 8 38.6 61.4
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 61.4 38.6
Belmont 11 - 9 18.5 81.5
Murray St. 8 - 12 87.0 13.0
Missouri St. 7 - 13 30.9 69.1
Illinois St. 9 - 11 34.6 65.4
Illinois-Chicago 4 - 16 69.1 30.9
Evansville 6 - 14 81.5 18.5
Valparaiso 2 - 18 65.4 34.6




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Indiana St. 100.0% 91.5 8.5
Drake 8.5% 8.5
Bradley
Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa
Belmont
Murray St.
Missouri St.
Illinois St.
Illinois-Chicago
Evansville
Valparaiso


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Indiana St. 32.3% 30.3% 1.9% 12   0.0 0.0 1.0 22.7 8.4 0.1 67.7 2.8%
Drake 25.6% 24.9% 0.7% 0.0 0.7 17.8 7.0 0.1 74.4 0.9%
Bradley 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0 4.6 11.2 1.8 0.0 82.3 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.0 0.2 93.9 0.0%
Northern Iowa 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.7 0.7 94.1 0.0%
Belmont 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.6 0.2 94.3 0.0%
Murray St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 3.1 96.8 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.3 97.6 0.0%
Illinois St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 0.8 98.1 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Evansville 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Indiana St. 32.3% 1.9% 31.3% 11.6% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Drake 25.6% 0.7% 25.2% 8.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 17.7% 0.0% 17.7% 4.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 5.7% 0.0% 5.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.4% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 1.9% 0.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 97.2 1.2
2nd Round 26.8% 0.3 73.2 26.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4 0.0
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0