Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#143
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#264
Pace68.3#208
Improvement-0.6#223

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#104
First Shot+2.5#106
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#179
Layup/Dunks+2.2#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#112
Freethrows-1.6#266
Improvement-1.7#313

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#205
First Shot-3.5#285
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#32
Layups/Dunks+5.2#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#339
Freethrows-3.9#339
Improvement+1.1#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 6.4% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 29.3% 40.1% 19.8%
.500 or above in Conference 40.2% 45.5% 35.5%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.8% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 3.0% 6.0%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 1.8%
First Round4.8% 5.9% 3.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Home) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 62 - 8
Quad 36 - 78 - 15
Quad 45 - 213 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 82   @ North Texas L 77-83 OT 23%     0 - 1 +3.3 +10.4 -6.9
  Nov 19, 2023 191   @ South Florida L 65-74 49%     0 - 2 -7.4 -0.9 -6.8
  Nov 22, 2023 14   North Carolina L 69-91 10%     0 - 3 -6.5 -1.7 -3.9
  Nov 23, 2023 54   Texas Tech L 70-72 23%     0 - 4 +7.1 +6.6 +0.4
  Nov 24, 2023 101   Stanford W 73-51 37%     1 - 4 +26.7 +3.9 +23.3
  Nov 29, 2023 148   Belmont L 70-90 63%     1 - 5 -22.1 -9.5 -11.7
  Dec 02, 2023 207   @ Evansville L 89-91 OT 52%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -1.1 +9.1 -10.0
  Dec 06, 2023 90   Richmond L 70-71 47%    
  Dec 09, 2023 120   @ Toledo L 76-81 34%    
  Dec 12, 2023 248   Prairie View W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 17, 2023 296   Alcorn St. W 82-70 86%    
  Dec 21, 2023 160   @ Northern Illinois L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 03, 2024 111   @ Missouri St. L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 07, 2024 74   Indiana St. L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 10, 2024 137   Illinois-Chicago W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 14, 2024 172   @ Murray St. L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 17, 2024 148   @ Belmont L 78-80 41%    
  Jan 20, 2024 109   Southern Illinois W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 23, 2024 207   Evansville W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 27, 2024 72   @ Drake L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 31, 2024 92   @ Bradley L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 03, 2024 172   Murray St. W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 07, 2024 111   Missouri St. W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 11, 2024 137   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 14, 2024 312   @ Valparaiso W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 18, 2024 92   Bradley L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 21, 2024 214   @ Illinois St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 24, 2024 72   Drake L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 27, 2024 312   Valparaiso W 77-64 87%    
  Mar 03, 2024 109   @ Southern Illinois L 65-71 32%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.0 2.7 0.4 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.3 4.8 1.0 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.1 1.9 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 3.4 5.7 2.5 0.2 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.0 2.7 0.3 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.2 2.6 0.3 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.6 5.8 9.7 11.8 13.0 13.5 12.8 9.9 8.0 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 90.6% 0.4    0.3 0.0
15-5 72.6% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 34.6% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.2
13-7 10.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 45.3% 35.9% 9.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.6%
16-4 0.4% 21.8% 21.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.3% 15.8% 15.8% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
14-6 2.7% 18.3% 18.3% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.2
13-7 4.9% 13.2% 13.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3
12-8 8.0% 9.3% 9.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.3
11-9 9.9% 6.7% 6.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.3
10-10 12.8% 6.4% 6.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 12.0
9-11 13.5% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.1 0.6 12.8
8-12 13.0% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 12.6
7-13 11.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 11.5
6-14 9.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.6
5-15 5.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.7
4-16 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-17 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 2.0 94.7 0.0%