Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#188
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#306
Pace66.8#248
Improvement+0.3#150

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#148
First Shot-1.6#218
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#47
Layup/Dunks-0.3#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#329
Freethrows-0.4#204
Improvement-1.1#298

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#253
First Shot-4.6#310
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#57
Layups/Dunks-2.2#270
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#256
Freethrows+1.1#121
Improvement+1.4#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.1% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 21.6% 35.7% 15.9%
.500 or above in Conference 27.8% 45.1% 20.7%
Conference Champion 1.3% 3.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 4.0% 13.7%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
First Round1.8% 2.8% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 85 - 15
Quad 46 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 304   Tennessee Tech W 78-72 81%     1 - 0 -4.8 +0.2 -4.9
  Nov 14, 2023 184   Western Kentucky L 81-86 60%     1 - 1 -9.3 +3.8 -12.8
  Nov 20, 2023 135   UNC Wilmington L 81-83 OT 37%     1 - 2 -0.2 +6.2 -6.3
  Nov 22, 2023 117   Appalachian St. L 57-67 32%     1 - 3 -6.6 -11.2 +4.4
  Nov 29, 2023 73   Bradley L 65-71 29%    
  Dec 03, 2023 231   @ Illinois St. L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 09, 2023 260   @ Austin Peay W 69-68 53%    
  Dec 13, 2023 20   @ Mississippi St. L 60-78 4%    
  Dec 16, 2023 290   SE Louisiana W 79-71 78%    
  Dec 18, 2023 271   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 79-78 55%    
  Dec 22, 2023 91   SMU L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 30, 2023 180   Middle Tennessee W 66-64 58%    
  Jan 02, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 06, 2024 200   @ Evansville L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 10, 2024 103   @ Missouri St. L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 14, 2024 110   Northern Iowa L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 17, 2024 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 21, 2024 99   Indiana St. L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 24, 2024 73   @ Bradley L 62-74 15%    
  Jan 27, 2024 119   Southern Illinois L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 30, 2024 231   Illinois St. W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 03, 2024 110   @ Northern Iowa L 69-77 22%    
  Feb 07, 2024 178   @ Belmont L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 10, 2024 200   Evansville W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 14, 2024 103   Missouri St. L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 18, 2024 81   @ Drake L 67-78 17%    
  Feb 21, 2024 119   @ Southern Illinois L 63-71 25%    
  Feb 24, 2024 315   Valparaiso W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 28, 2024 178   Belmont W 80-78 58%    
  Mar 03, 2024 99   @ Indiana St. L 73-82 21%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 1.3 0.2 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.0 3.9 0.7 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.1 5.8 3.8 0.9 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 4.0 5.7 3.9 0.8 0.1 16.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.5 4.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 15.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 6.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.7 7.3 9.6 11.6 12.9 11.9 11.0 8.9 7.3 4.7 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 88.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 69.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 41.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 17.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 17.1% 17.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 18.1% 18.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 0.9% 11.7% 11.7% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
14-6 2.0% 8.2% 8.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8
13-7 3.3% 7.8% 7.8% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0
12-8 4.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.4
11-9 7.3% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.0
10-10 8.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.6
9-11 11.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 10.8
8-12 11.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.8
7-13 12.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.7
6-14 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.5
5-15 9.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.6
4-16 7.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.3
3-17 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-18 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%