Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#111
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#86
Pace72.0#108
Improvement+0.1#179

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#191
First Shot+2.1#115
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#311
Layup/Dunks+1.3#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#106
Freethrows+0.7#129
Improvement-0.6#232

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#57
First Shot+4.8#51
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#216
Layups/Dunks+1.5#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#65
Freethrows+4.0#16
Improvement+0.7#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 11.7% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 90.7% 94.9% 83.8%
.500 or above in Conference 65.8% 69.5% 59.8%
Conference Champion 8.2% 9.2% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.9% 2.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round10.2% 11.4% 8.2%
Second Round2.0% 2.4% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 410 - 10
Quad 49 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 105   @ West Virginia L 59-67 37%     0 - 1 -0.8 -3.5 +1.9
  Nov 13, 2023 159   Oral Roberts W 84-69 74%     1 - 1 +12.2 -3.1 +13.4
  Nov 17, 2023 220   Florida Gulf Coast W 70-61 73%     2 - 1 +6.6 +2.7 +5.1
  Nov 19, 2023 108   Kent St. W 56-52 49%     3 - 1 +8.0 -13.9 +22.1
  Nov 20, 2023 180   Abilene Christian W 87-69 68%     4 - 1 +17.2 +11.5 +5.1
  Nov 25, 2023 341   South Carolina St. W 92-74 95%     5 - 1 +3.0 +4.1 -2.5
  Nov 29, 2023 207   Evansville W 90-78 80%     6 - 1 +6.9 +5.7 -0.1
  Dec 02, 2023 72   @ Drake L 57-74 26%     6 - 2 0 - 1 -6.6 -12.5 +6.0
  Dec 05, 2023 221   @ Middle Tennessee W 64-61 62%    
  Dec 09, 2023 141   Sam Houston St. W 73-68 69%    
  Dec 16, 2023 202   @ Tulsa W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 19, 2023 340   Lindenwood W 82-63 96%    
  Dec 23, 2023 59   @ St. Mary's L 60-68 25%    
  Jan 03, 2024 143   Northern Iowa W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 06, 2024 92   @ Bradley L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 10, 2024 172   Murray St. W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 13, 2024 207   @ Evansville W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 16, 2024 74   @ Indiana St. L 73-79 28%    
  Jan 20, 2024 214   Illinois St. W 70-61 79%    
  Jan 24, 2024 72   Drake L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 27, 2024 312   @ Valparaiso W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 31, 2024 109   @ Southern Illinois L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 03, 2024 148   Belmont W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 07, 2024 143   @ Northern Iowa L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 10, 2024 74   Indiana St. L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 14, 2024 172   @ Murray St. W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 17, 2024 312   Valparaiso W 75-60 91%    
  Feb 21, 2024 92   Bradley W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 24, 2024 148   @ Belmont L 77-78 51%    
  Feb 28, 2024 214   @ Illinois St. W 67-64 60%    
  Mar 03, 2024 137   Illinois-Chicago W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 3.9 3.8 1.6 0.3 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.5 4.5 1.2 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.9 4.7 1.0 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.9 5.1 1.3 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.1 1.6 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.6 1.5 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 3.8 2.0 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 2.7 1.6 0.2 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.8 6.7 9.0 11.6 13.5 14.5 13.5 10.4 7.2 4.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-4 84.8% 1.6    1.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 61.7% 2.6    1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 30.5% 2.2    0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-7 8.8% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 4.0 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 87.5% 52.1% 35.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.9%
17-3 0.5% 49.8% 31.4% 18.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 26.9%
16-4 1.9% 37.2% 24.5% 12.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.2 16.8%
15-5 4.3% 24.4% 22.9% 1.5% 11.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.2 2.0%
14-6 7.2% 18.1% 17.4% 0.7% 12.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.9 0.9%
13-7 10.4% 16.7% 16.7% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 8.7
12-8 13.5% 10.5% 10.5% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 12.1
11-9 14.5% 9.3% 9.3% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 13.1
10-10 13.5% 8.2% 8.2% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 12.4
9-11 11.6% 5.6% 5.6% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.0
8-12 9.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.5
7-13 6.7% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
6-14 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.7
5-15 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.4% 9.9% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.0 2.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 89.6 0.5%