Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#231
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#235
Pace63.6#317
Improvement+0.4#134

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#297
First Shot-7.2#345
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#42
Layup/Dunks-5.9#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#272
Freethrows-0.9#235
Improvement-1.3#311

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#146
First Shot-0.3#181
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#107
Layups/Dunks+1.2#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
Freethrows-1.5#267
Improvement+1.8#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 18.6% 34.8% 14.9%
.500 or above in Conference 17.9% 34.6% 14.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 17.5% 7.1% 19.8%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round0.9% 1.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 18.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 75 - 15
Quad 47 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 148   @ Saint Louis L 71-80 24%     0 - 1 -5.0 -6.5 +2.3
  Nov 15, 2023 336   Eastern Illinois W 69-61 85%     1 - 1 -6.5 -0.8 -4.7
  Nov 20, 2023 136   Long Beach St. W 61-52 31%     2 - 1 +10.8 -12.9 +23.5
  Nov 21, 2023 226   High Point L 72-74 49%     2 - 2 -5.2 -2.1 -3.3
  Nov 22, 2023 131   Wright St. L 49-74 28%     2 - 3 -22.6 -26.6 +4.4
  Nov 30, 2023 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 60-70 19%    
  Dec 03, 2023 188   Murray St. W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 06, 2023 205   Northern Kentucky W 65-63 56%    
  Dec 09, 2023 274   Norfolk St. W 68-62 70%    
  Dec 17, 2023 215   North Dakota St. W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 21, 2023 340   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-64 85%    
  Dec 29, 2023 14   @ Kentucky L 60-82 2%    
  Jan 02, 2024 81   @ Drake L 60-73 12%    
  Jan 06, 2024 119   Southern Illinois L 60-64 37%    
  Jan 10, 2024 178   @ Belmont L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 14, 2024 315   Valparaiso W 68-60 76%    
  Jan 17, 2024 81   Drake L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 20, 2024 103   @ Missouri St. L 58-69 17%    
  Jan 23, 2024 178   Belmont W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 27, 2024 200   @ Evansville L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 30, 2024 188   @ Murray St. L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 03, 2024 73   Bradley L 59-67 24%    
  Feb 07, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago L 63-67 38%    
  Feb 10, 2024 119   @ Southern Illinois L 57-67 20%    
  Feb 13, 2024 99   @ Indiana St. L 66-77 17%    
  Feb 18, 2024 200   Evansville W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 21, 2024 110   Northern Iowa L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 24, 2024 73   @ Bradley L 56-70 11%    
  Feb 28, 2024 103   Missouri St. L 61-66 34%    
  Mar 03, 2024 315   @ Valparaiso W 65-63 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 1.4 0.2 5.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 3.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.8 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.5 5.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 14.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 5.1 6.4 3.9 1.0 0.1 18.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 3.0 6.1 6.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 19.7 11th
12th 0.4 1.3 2.7 3.4 2.3 0.8 0.1 11.1 12th
Total 0.4 1.4 3.6 6.6 10.1 12.8 13.5 12.9 11.7 9.1 7.0 4.8 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 85.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 82.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 48.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 15.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 16.2% 16.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 5.5% 5.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.8% 6.6% 6.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.8% 4.5% 4.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
12-8 3.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
11-9 4.8% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
10-10 7.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.9
9-11 9.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.0
8-12 11.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 11.5
7-13 12.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.8
6-14 13.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.5
5-15 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.7
4-16 10.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.1
3-17 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.6
2-18 3.6% 3.6
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 98.9 0.0%