Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#119
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#124
Pace62.0#337
Improvement+0.2#152

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#170
First Shot+2.0#126
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#277
Layup/Dunks-3.6#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#29
Freethrows+3.3#34
Improvement-0.7#260

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#91
First Shot+4.3#66
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#276
Layups/Dunks-3.0#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.4#1
Freethrows-4.5#348
Improvement+1.0#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 12.8% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.6 12.1 13.0
.500 or above 83.8% 93.4% 78.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.0% 84.8% 62.6%
Conference Champion 10.1% 18.7% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.4% 2.4%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round9.0% 12.6% 7.2%
Second Round1.8% 2.8% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 36 - 48 - 10
Quad 410 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 267   Queens W 91-68 86%     1 - 0 +14.4 +12.9 +1.1
  Nov 16, 2023 342   Chicago St. W 71-55 94%     2 - 0 +1.1 -1.0 +3.8
  Nov 21, 2023 67   James Madison L 76-82 32%     2 - 1 +2.0 +2.9 -0.8
  Nov 22, 2023 235   New Mexico St. W 81-54 75%     3 - 1 +23.3 +13.7 +12.3
  Nov 28, 2023 99   @ Indiana St. L 69-73 34%    
  Dec 02, 2023 148   Saint Louis W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 05, 2023 75   Oklahoma St. L 64-65 47%    
  Dec 12, 2023 260   Austin Peay W 69-57 86%    
  Dec 16, 2023 89   @ Wichita St. L 64-69 31%    
  Dec 19, 2023 215   North Dakota St. W 72-63 79%    
  Dec 22, 2023 339   Southern Indiana W 76-58 95%    
  Dec 30, 2023 123   Illinois-Chicago W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 02, 2024 178   Belmont W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 06, 2024 231   @ Illinois St. W 64-60 63%    
  Jan 10, 2024 315   @ Valparaiso W 69-60 78%    
  Jan 13, 2024 81   Drake L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 17, 2024 73   Bradley L 62-63 45%    
  Jan 20, 2024 110   @ Northern Iowa L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 24, 2024 315   Valparaiso W 72-57 90%    
  Jan 27, 2024 188   @ Murray St. W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 31, 2024 103   Missouri St. W 65-63 56%    
  Feb 03, 2024 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 07, 2024 81   @ Drake L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 10, 2024 231   Illinois St. W 67-57 80%    
  Feb 14, 2024 178   @ Belmont W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 17, 2024 99   Indiana St. W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 21, 2024 188   Murray St. W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 25, 2024 200   @ Evansville W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 28, 2024 73   @ Bradley L 59-66 26%    
  Mar 03, 2024 110   Northern Iowa W 68-66 58%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.7 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.9 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 4.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 3.5 0.8 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.5 7.3 9.8 11.2 12.0 12.4 10.7 8.9 6.8 4.1 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 99.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
17-3 90.7% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 66.3% 2.7    1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 36.2% 2.5    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0
14-6 11.4% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 6.2 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 61.9% 38.1% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 66.8% 33.2% 33.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 50.3%
18-2 1.2% 50.1% 30.7% 19.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 27.9%
17-3 2.4% 31.7% 29.1% 2.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.6 3.6%
16-4 4.1% 20.2% 19.3% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.3 1.2%
15-5 6.8% 17.9% 17.6% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.6 0.4%
14-6 8.9% 15.4% 15.4% 0.1% 12.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 7.5 0.1%
13-7 10.7% 10.6% 10.6% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 9.6
12-8 12.4% 7.4% 7.4% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.4
11-9 12.0% 6.2% 6.2% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 11.3
10-10 11.2% 5.0% 5.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.6
9-11 9.8% 3.2% 3.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.5
8-12 7.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.1
7-13 5.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.4
6-14 3.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.6
5-15 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.2% 8.6% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.1 2.8 2.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 90.8 0.6%