Belmont
Missouri Valley
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#148
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#122
Pace76.6#35
Improvement+3.4#17

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#90
First Shot+4.7#64
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#265
Layup/Dunks+3.0#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#60
Freethrows-1.7#273
Improvement+1.1#82

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#242
First Shot-3.0#273
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#123
Layups/Dunks-3.9#305
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
Freethrows+2.4#58
Improvement+2.2#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.8% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 14.3
.500 or above 61.7% 70.2% 47.8%
.500 or above in Conference 45.2% 48.8% 39.3%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.2% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.4% 3.7%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round4.0% 4.6% 3.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 62.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 48 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 204   Georgia St. W 89-87 71%     1 - 0 -2.8 +5.3 -8.3
  Nov 10, 2023 122   @ Furman L 76-99 31%     1 - 1 -17.1 -7.4 -6.5
  Nov 17, 2023 2   @ Arizona L 68-100 3%     1 - 2 -9.4 -1.7 -4.2
  Nov 24, 2023 239   Monmouth L 84-93 68%     1 - 3 -12.8 +5.4 -17.8
  Nov 25, 2023 194   @ Penn W 84-79 OT 47%     2 - 3 +6.5 +6.2 +0.1
  Nov 26, 2023 325   Lafayette W 79-69 82%     3 - 3 +1.0 +0.5 -0.1
  Nov 29, 2023 143   @ Northern Iowa W 90-70 37%     4 - 3 +24.4 +13.9 +9.7
  Dec 02, 2023 312   Valparaiso W 77-68 87%     5 - 3 1 - 0 -2.3 -0.8 -1.8
  Dec 06, 2023 151   Lipscomb W 83-80 62%    
  Dec 09, 2023 221   @ Middle Tennessee W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 16, 2023 142   @ Samford L 82-86 37%    
  Dec 20, 2023 240   Arkansas St. W 82-74 76%    
  Jan 02, 2024 109   @ Southern Illinois L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 07, 2024 72   Drake L 76-80 38%    
  Jan 10, 2024 214   Illinois St. W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 13, 2024 74   @ Indiana St. L 79-88 20%    
  Jan 17, 2024 143   Northern Iowa W 80-78 59%    
  Jan 20, 2024 92   @ Bradley L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 23, 2024 214   @ Illinois St. W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 27, 2024 137   Illinois-Chicago W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 31, 2024 74   Indiana St. L 82-85 38%    
  Feb 03, 2024 111   @ Missouri St. L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 07, 2024 172   Murray St. W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 10, 2024 312   @ Valparaiso W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 14, 2024 109   Southern Illinois L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 18, 2024 137   @ Illinois-Chicago L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 21, 2024 72   @ Drake L 73-83 20%    
  Feb 24, 2024 111   Missouri St. W 78-77 49%    
  Feb 28, 2024 172   @ Murray St. L 78-80 44%    
  Mar 03, 2024 207   Evansville W 82-76 70%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.5 3.9 0.7 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.5 5.1 1.2 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.5 1.7 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.7 2.0 0.2 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.1 2.6 0.2 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 5.2 8.0 11.0 13.4 13.6 13.3 11.5 8.8 5.9 3.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 99.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 92.3% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 65.7% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 33.6% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0
13-7 8.2% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 30.5% 28.8% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.4%
16-4 0.6% 23.3% 19.3% 4.0% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 5.0%
15-5 1.5% 12.4% 12.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-6 3.4% 10.3% 10.3% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.0
13-7 5.9% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.1
12-8 8.8% 6.1% 6.1% 12.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.3
11-9 11.5% 5.4% 5.4% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.8
10-10 13.3% 3.6% 3.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.8
9-11 13.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 13.1
8-12 13.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.1 0.2 13.1
7-13 11.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.8
6-14 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.9
5-15 5.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.1
4-16 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-17 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 95.8 0.0%