Bradley
Missouri Valley
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#73
Expected Predictive Rating+18.4#12
Pace64.3#303
Improvement-0.3#209

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#108
First Shot+1.4#147
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#137
Layup/Dunks-0.3#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#97
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+1.1#72

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#43
First Shot+3.7#82
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#77
Layups/Dunks+0.9#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#127
Freethrows-0.4#217
Improvement-1.4#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 3.7% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.2% 39.1% 25.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.2% 18.3% 8.2%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 11.0
.500 or above 99.1% 99.6% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 95.6% 85.1%
Conference Champion 32.1% 37.4% 19.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four5.7% 6.3% 4.2%
First Round32.1% 35.6% 23.4%
Second Round11.4% 13.1% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 4.0% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 25 - 36 - 4
Quad 310 - 316 - 7
Quad 47 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 88   @ UAB W 73-71 OT 45%     1 - 0 +10.7 -1.4 +11.9
  Nov 11, 2023 56   Utah St. W 72-66 OT 55%     2 - 0 +12.2 -2.7 +14.4
  Nov 14, 2023 173   Tarleton St. W 86-63 85%     3 - 0 +19.5 +15.6 +4.6
  Nov 20, 2023 92   Tulane W 80-77 58%     4 - 0 +8.3 +9.0 -0.7
  Nov 22, 2023 150   UTEP W 63-59 74%     5 - 0 +4.8 -5.6 +10.4
  Nov 25, 2023 100   Vermont W 79-70 72%     6 - 0 +10.5 +8.9 +2.0
  Nov 29, 2023 188   @ Murray St. W 71-65 71%    
  Dec 02, 2023 99   Indiana St. W 75-69 71%    
  Dec 05, 2023 114   @ Akron W 66-65 53%    
  Dec 15, 2023 164   Cleveland St. W 72-62 84%    
  Dec 18, 2023 84   Duquesne W 71-70 55%    
  Dec 21, 2023 238   SIU Edwardsville W 70-55 91%    
  Jan 03, 2024 315   @ Valparaiso W 72-59 88%    
  Jan 06, 2024 103   Missouri St. W 68-62 70%    
  Jan 10, 2024 200   Evansville W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 13, 2024 123   @ Illinois-Chicago W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 17, 2024 119   @ Southern Illinois W 63-62 55%    
  Jan 20, 2024 178   Belmont W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 24, 2024 188   Murray St. W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 27, 2024 99   @ Indiana St. L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 31, 2024 110   Northern Iowa W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 03, 2024 231   @ Illinois St. W 67-59 76%    
  Feb 07, 2024 200   @ Evansville W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 10, 2024 81   Drake W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 14, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 18, 2024 110   @ Northern Iowa W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 21, 2024 103   @ Missouri St. L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 24, 2024 231   Illinois St. W 70-56 89%    
  Feb 28, 2024 119   Southern Illinois W 66-59 74%    
  Mar 03, 2024 81   @ Drake L 67-69 43%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.9 5.5 8.3 8.0 5.4 2.1 0.5 32.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.1 6.7 3.4 0.9 0.1 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.5 4.6 1.5 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.5 3.5 0.9 0.1 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.5 7.3 10.8 12.6 13.6 13.7 11.8 8.9 5.5 2.1 0.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.0
18-2 98.3% 5.4    5.1 0.3
17-3 89.9% 8.0    6.7 1.3 0.1
16-4 70.5% 8.3    5.3 2.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 40.1% 5.5    2.2 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.7% 1.9    0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.1% 32.1 22.3 7.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 98.9% 59.9% 39.0% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
19-1 2.1% 97.1% 52.1% 45.0% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.9%
18-2 5.5% 85.2% 42.5% 42.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.8 74.3%
17-3 8.9% 73.6% 41.2% 32.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 55.0%
16-4 11.8% 55.1% 32.7% 22.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.4 1.2 0.0 5.3 33.3%
15-5 13.7% 38.6% 27.0% 11.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.9 1.7 0.0 8.4 15.9%
14-6 13.6% 27.1% 21.5% 5.6% 11.5 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.2 9.9 7.1%
13-7 12.6% 19.3% 17.7% 1.7% 11.8 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.1 2.0%
12-8 10.8% 15.1% 14.9% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 0.2%
11-9 7.3% 10.6% 10.4% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 6.5 0.2%
10-10 5.5% 9.7% 9.7% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.0
9-11 3.7% 7.5% 7.5% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.4
8-12 2.1% 4.7% 4.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
7-13 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 35.2% 23.5% 11.7% 10.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.7 4.9 11.8 8.5 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 64.8 15.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 97.6% 3.2 10.2 16.5 21.3 44.9 2.4 2.4