Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#99
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#37
Pace74.7#51
Improvement-0.2#197

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#64
First Shot+6.4#31
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#278
Layup/Dunks+2.8#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#7
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement-0.6#243

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#169
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#187
Layups/Dunks+0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#165
Freethrows+1.3#111
Improvement+0.4#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 16.2% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% 2.9% 1.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.6 12.4
.500 or above 91.8% 95.5% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.4% 87.3% 66.9%
Conference Champion 14.4% 18.4% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round13.4% 15.4% 9.5%
Second Round3.3% 4.0% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 37 - 310 - 10
Quad 410 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 9   @ Alabama L 80-102 8%     0 - 1 -2.1 +8.5 -9.4
  Nov 14, 2023 351   IUPUI W 96-57 96%     1 - 1 +22.7 +14.8 +7.7
  Nov 21, 2023 249   Rice W 103-88 81%     2 - 1 +10.4 +11.6 -3.0
  Nov 22, 2023 185   Pepperdine W 90-82 72%     3 - 1 +6.5 +11.2 -5.0
  Nov 24, 2023 112   Toledo W 76-74 53%     4 - 1 +5.8 -3.3 +9.0
  Nov 28, 2023 119   Southern Illinois W 73-69 66%    
  Dec 02, 2023 73   @ Bradley L 69-75 29%    
  Dec 05, 2023 165   @ Northern Illinois W 84-82 56%    
  Dec 09, 2023 339   Southern Indiana W 87-68 96%    
  Dec 16, 2023 236   Ball St. W 81-73 78%    
  Dec 19, 2023 225   Tennessee St. W 86-75 83%    
  Dec 30, 2023 17   @ Michigan St. L 65-79 11%    
  Jan 03, 2024 200   Evansville W 81-72 81%    
  Jan 07, 2024 110   @ Northern Iowa L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 10, 2024 81   @ Drake L 74-79 34%    
  Jan 13, 2024 178   Belmont W 88-80 78%    
  Jan 16, 2024 103   Missouri St. W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 21, 2024 188   @ Murray St. W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 24, 2024 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 27, 2024 73   Bradley W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 31, 2024 178   @ Belmont W 85-83 59%    
  Feb 03, 2024 81   Drake W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 07, 2024 315   Valparaiso W 82-66 92%    
  Feb 10, 2024 103   @ Missouri St. L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 13, 2024 231   Illinois St. W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 17, 2024 119   @ Southern Illinois L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 21, 2024 315   @ Valparaiso W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 24, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago W 78-73 65%    
  Feb 28, 2024 200   @ Evansville W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 03, 2024 188   Murray St. W 82-73 79%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.0 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 14.4 1st
2nd 0.3 2.3 5.0 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.5 4.0 1.2 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 5.5 4.0 1.0 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.2 3.7 0.9 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.7 0.9 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.3 7.3 9.8 12.1 12.9 13.0 11.5 8.9 6.2 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 98.9% 1.6    1.6 0.1
17-3 88.5% 3.3    2.6 0.7 0.0
16-4 64.3% 4.0    2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 34.9% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
14-6 12.4% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 8.6 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 95.5% 59.1% 36.4% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.9%
19-1 0.6% 80.2% 32.6% 47.6% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 70.6%
18-2 1.7% 64.7% 40.6% 24.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 40.6%
17-3 3.7% 46.2% 29.4% 16.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.0 23.7%
16-4 6.2% 30.7% 24.8% 5.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 4.3 7.8%
15-5 8.9% 21.4% 19.3% 2.1% 11.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.0 2.6%
14-6 11.5% 16.3% 15.9% 0.4% 12.1 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 9.6 0.5%
13-7 13.0% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 11.2 0.1%
12-8 12.9% 9.0% 9.0% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.8
11-9 12.1% 7.4% 7.4% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.2
10-10 9.8% 6.7% 6.7% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 9.1
9-11 7.3% 3.8% 3.8% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.0
8-12 5.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.1
7-13 3.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.2
6-14 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 14.1% 12.2% 2.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 3.1 5.5 2.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 85.9 2.2%