Evansville
Missouri Valley
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#207
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#88
Pace72.5#93
Improvement-1.3#274

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#225
First Shot+0.9#157
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#306
Layup/Dunks+3.7#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#270
Freethrows+0.6#138
Improvement+2.5#22

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#182
First Shot-1.5#219
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#101
Layups/Dunks-1.2#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#293
Freethrows+1.6#96
Improvement-3.8#357
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.8% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 12.8 14.1
.500 or above 53.0% 79.8% 52.4%
.500 or above in Conference 25.4% 40.3% 25.0%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.9% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 2.9% 9.1%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round1.7% 2.8% 1.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 55 - 13
Quad 49 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 252   Miami (OH) W 72-64 71%     1 - 0 +0.1 -7.8 +7.6
  Nov 15, 2023 354   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 76-57 79%     2 - 0 +8.5 -2.5 +10.5
  Nov 18, 2023 253   Ball St. W 74-50 71%     3 - 0 +16.1 -1.8 +18.4
  Nov 24, 2023 208   @ Chattanooga W 85-77 OT 39%     4 - 0 +8.9 +3.2 +4.9
  Nov 25, 2023 354   Southeast Missouri St. W 93-74 86%     5 - 0 +5.5 +12.5 -7.6
  Nov 29, 2023 111   @ Missouri St. L 78-90 20%     5 - 1 -5.1 +2.7 -6.6
  Dec 02, 2023 143   Northern Iowa W 91-89 OT 48%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +0.4 +7.3 -7.1
  Dec 05, 2023 9   @ BYU L 65-86 2%    
  Dec 16, 2023 226   @ Bellarmine L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 18, 2023 267   Tennessee Martin W 83-76 74%    
  Dec 20, 2023 309   Tennessee Tech W 76-67 80%    
  Dec 29, 2023 36   @ Cincinnati L 66-83 6%    
  Jan 03, 2024 74   @ Indiana St. L 72-84 13%    
  Jan 06, 2024 172   Murray St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 10, 2024 92   @ Bradley L 65-75 17%    
  Jan 13, 2024 111   Missouri St. L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 17, 2024 312   Valparaiso W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 20, 2024 72   @ Drake L 67-79 13%    
  Jan 23, 2024 143   @ Northern Iowa L 71-77 28%    
  Jan 27, 2024 214   Illinois St. W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 31, 2024 137   Illinois-Chicago L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 03, 2024 312   @ Valparaiso W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 07, 2024 92   Bradley L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 10, 2024 172   @ Murray St. L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 13, 2024 72   Drake L 70-76 28%    
  Feb 18, 2024 214   @ Illinois St. L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 21, 2024 137   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 25, 2024 109   Southern Illinois L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 28, 2024 74   Indiana St. L 75-81 28%    
  Mar 03, 2024 148   @ Belmont L 76-82 30%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.4 0.2 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.6 0.9 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.2 5.1 1.4 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 3.6 6.4 2.5 0.1 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.5 3.0 0.3 14.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.3 3.3 0.4 15.0 10th
11th 0.3 1.4 3.6 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.2 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 4.8 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.1 6.2 9.4 12.7 14.5 14.6 12.7 9.9 6.8 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 87.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-5 56.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 31.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 10.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 16.7%
16-4 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.5% 11.6% 11.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.3% 9.2% 9.2% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.5% 5.9% 5.9% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.1%
12-8 4.2% 4.7% 4.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
11-9 6.8% 5.0% 5.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.4
10-10 9.9% 2.2% 2.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7
9-11 12.7% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.5
8-12 14.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.4
7-13 14.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 14.4
6-14 12.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.7
5-15 9.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.3
4-16 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-17 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 98.2 0.0%