Drake
Missouri Valley
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#72
Expected Predictive Rating+9.5#60
Pace66.4#261
Improvement+0.6#131

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#53
First Shot+6.9#28
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#266
Layup/Dunks+1.1#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#117
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement+0.2#158

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#120
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#45
Layups/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#243
Freethrows+2.7#42
Improvement+0.5#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 28.6% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.3% 7.1% 1.4%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.7
.500 or above 99.2% 99.5% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 92.8% 86.6%
Conference Champion 35.9% 37.3% 27.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four2.5% 2.7% 0.8%
First Round26.0% 27.4% 17.6%
Second Round9.2% 10.0% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.3% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Home) - 86.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 1
Quad 23 - 34 - 4
Quad 39 - 313 - 7
Quad 49 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 151   Lipscomb W 85-70 82%     1 - 0 +12.5 +7.2 +4.8
  Nov 19, 2023 155   Oakland W 85-77 75%     2 - 0 +8.3 +5.8 +2.1
  Nov 20, 2023 106   Stephen F. Austin L 68-92 62%     2 - 1 -19.9 -0.8 -19.2
  Nov 21, 2023 113   Akron W 79-59 64%     3 - 1 +23.7 +17.3 +8.5
  Nov 25, 2023 233   Texas Southern W 77-71 90%     4 - 1 -0.5 +7.5 -7.6
  Nov 29, 2023 312   @ Valparaiso W 83-65 88%     5 - 1 +12.7 +12.9 +0.3
  Dec 02, 2023 111   Missouri St. W 74-57 74%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +17.9 +3.8 +14.0
  Dec 06, 2023 188   Saint Louis W 82-70 86%    
  Dec 09, 2023 43   Nevada L 71-74 38%    
  Dec 14, 2023 329   Grambling St. W 79-59 97%    
  Dec 19, 2023 296   Alcorn St. W 84-66 95%    
  Dec 22, 2023 132   @ UAB W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 02, 2024 214   Illinois St. W 73-60 87%    
  Jan 07, 2024 148   @ Belmont W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 10, 2024 74   Indiana St. W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 13, 2024 109   @ Southern Illinois W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 17, 2024 214   @ Illinois St. W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 20, 2024 207   Evansville W 79-67 87%    
  Jan 24, 2024 111   @ Missouri St. W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 27, 2024 143   Northern Iowa W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 31, 2024 312   Valparaiso W 79-60 95%    
  Feb 03, 2024 74   @ Indiana St. L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 07, 2024 109   Southern Illinois W 70-64 73%    
  Feb 10, 2024 92   @ Bradley L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 13, 2024 207   @ Evansville W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 18, 2024 172   Murray St. W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 21, 2024 148   Belmont W 83-73 80%    
  Feb 24, 2024 143   @ Northern Iowa W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 28, 2024 137   @ Illinois-Chicago W 72-69 59%    
  Mar 03, 2024 92   Bradley W 71-66 67%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 5.6 9.2 9.5 6.3 2.8 0.7 35.9 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 6.6 7.6 4.1 1.3 0.1 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.8 5.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.8 1.2 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 2.9 0.9 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.4 3.9 6.3 8.8 12.6 14.9 15.0 13.6 10.8 6.4 2.8 0.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.0
17-3 98.5% 6.3    5.9 0.4
16-4 87.4% 9.5    7.8 1.7 0.0
15-5 67.3% 9.2    5.6 3.1 0.5 0.0
14-6 37.4% 5.6    2.1 2.5 0.9 0.1
13-7 11.8% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 35.9% 35.9 25.1 8.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 96.0% 63.4% 32.6% 4.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.2%
18-2 2.8% 85.2% 48.9% 36.2% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.4 70.9%
17-3 6.4% 65.8% 40.1% 25.7% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.2 42.9%
16-4 10.8% 45.5% 33.8% 11.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 1.0 0.0 5.9 17.8%
15-5 13.6% 31.0% 27.1% 3.9% 11.4 0.0 0.2 2.1 1.8 0.1 9.4 5.3%
14-6 15.0% 24.3% 23.1% 1.2% 11.7 0.0 1.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.4 1.6%
13-7 14.9% 18.4% 18.3% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 12.2 0.1%
12-8 12.6% 15.9% 15.9% 12.3 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 10.6
11-9 8.8% 12.8% 12.8% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.7
10-10 6.3% 11.5% 11.5% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.6
9-11 3.9% 7.2% 7.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.6
8-12 2.4% 6.3% 6.3% 14.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
7-13 1.1% 6.3% 6.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.4% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.1% 22.3% 4.9% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 2.4 8.7 8.8 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 72.9 6.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 95.2% 3.1 23.4 7.3 24.2 20.2 20.2