Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#137
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#133
Pace71.5#122
Improvement-1.1#267

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#207
First Shot+0.7#161
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#277
Layup/Dunks+3.9#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#111
Freethrows-2.8#316
Improvement+0.7#121

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#89
First Shot+3.7#71
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#239
Layups/Dunks-6.0#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.6#2
Freethrows-3.1#320
Improvement-1.8#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.9% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 76.6% 85.6% 66.1%
.500 or above in Conference 52.4% 58.3% 45.5%
Conference Champion 5.4% 7.0% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.4% 4.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round5.7% 6.8% 4.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 36 - 58 - 11
Quad 48 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 36   @ Cincinnati L 58-69 12%     0 - 1 +3.6 -10.0 +13.9
  Nov 10, 2023 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 86-71 79%     1 - 1 +8.3 +3.6 +4.2
  Nov 14, 2023 119   @ Loyola Chicago W 72-67 34%     2 - 1 +11.0 +2.2 +8.7
  Nov 24, 2023 221   Middle Tennessee W 70-40 66%     3 - 1 +27.6 +7.2 +24.0
  Nov 25, 2023 162   George Washington W 89-79 57%     4 - 1 +10.1 +7.8 +1.4
  Nov 26, 2023 103   UNC Greensboro L 57-58 40%     4 - 2 +3.5 -8.2 +11.6
  Nov 30, 2023 214   Illinois St. L 64-69 75%     4 - 3 -10.2 -6.1 -4.3
  Dec 08, 2023 216   @ Jacksonville St. W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 12, 2023 287   Green Bay W 71-59 86%    
  Dec 16, 2023 302   Western Michigan W 74-62 88%    
  Dec 21, 2023 333   Incarnate Word W 84-68 93%    
  Dec 30, 2023 109   @ Southern Illinois L 63-68 32%    
  Jan 02, 2024 172   @ Murray St. L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 06, 2024 312   Valparaiso W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 10, 2024 143   @ Northern Iowa L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 13, 2024 92   Bradley L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 17, 2024 172   Murray St. W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 312   @ Valparaiso W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 24, 2024 74   Indiana St. L 75-77 41%    
  Jan 27, 2024 148   @ Belmont L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 31, 2024 207   @ Evansville W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 03, 2024 109   Southern Illinois W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 07, 2024 214   @ Illinois St. W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 11, 2024 143   Northern Iowa W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 14, 2024 92   @ Bradley L 65-71 28%    
  Feb 18, 2024 148   Belmont W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 21, 2024 207   Evansville W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 24, 2024 74   @ Indiana St. L 72-80 23%    
  Feb 28, 2024 72   Drake L 69-72 41%    
  Mar 03, 2024 111   @ Missouri St. L 67-72 33%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.5 3.4 1.0 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.9 4.6 0.9 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.2 4.9 1.3 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.7 2.0 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.9 2.1 0.1 9.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 4.0 2.2 0.3 8.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 1.8 3.5 1.9 0.3 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 4.0 7.0 9.0 11.4 12.6 13.5 12.1 9.9 7.5 4.9 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 99.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-4 80.8% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 60.9% 1.6    0.9 0.7 0.1
14-6 31.1% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-7 7.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 62.8% 38.5% 24.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 39.6%
17-3 0.4% 26.2% 22.8% 3.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.5%
16-4 1.2% 15.6% 13.9% 1.6% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.9%
15-5 2.7% 16.1% 15.6% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.5%
14-6 4.9% 14.5% 14.5% 12.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.2
13-7 7.5% 9.8% 9.8% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.8
12-8 9.9% 8.5% 8.5% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.0
11-9 12.1% 5.9% 5.9% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.3
10-10 13.5% 4.9% 4.9% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 12.8
9-11 12.6% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.1
8-12 11.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 11.0
7-13 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.9
6-14 7.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 6.9
5-15 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-16 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-17 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-18 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 94.2 0.1%