Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
22 San Diego St. 98.5%   5   20 - 7 11 - 5 21 - 8 12 - 6 +13.3      +4.5 74 +8.8 9 66.8 240 +13.9 18 +11.7 3
32 New Mexico 65.4%   11   20 - 7 9 - 6 22 - 8 11 - 7 +12.0      +6.6 31 +5.4 40 81.1 6 +10.8 48 +9.1 6
39 Boise St. 54.8%   11   18 - 8 11 - 4 20 - 9 13 - 5 +11.2      +5.3 55 +5.9 31 66.1 254 +11.0 45 +12.2 2
40 Colorado St. 74.2%   10   18 - 9 8 - 8 20 - 9 10 - 8 +11.1      +6.0 42 +5.0 45 65.6 263 +11.2 43 +8.0 7
44 Nevada 80.2%   9   23 - 6 11 - 5 24 - 7 12 - 6 +10.7      +5.8 45 +4.9 48 66.4 247 +13.2 25 +11.6 4
46 Utah St. 79.2%   7   22 - 5 12 - 4 23 - 6 13 - 5 +10.2      +5.6 47 +4.6 52 71.1 103 +14.2 17 +13.7 1
77 UNLV 9.7%   15 - 10 10 - 5 17 - 11 12 - 6 +7.3      +4.5 75 +2.8 97 63.7 310 +7.3 86 +10.5 5
176 Wyoming 0.6%   11 - 15 6 - 9 12 - 17 7 - 11 -0.8      +1.5 134 -2.2 243 67.7 209 +2.2 131 +4.3 8
178 Fresno St. 0.6%   10 - 18 4 - 12 11 - 19 5 - 13 -1.0      -0.3 189 -0.7 192 64.2 299 -2.0 202 -1.2 9
225 San Jose St. 0.3%   8 - 20 2 - 14 8 - 22 2 - 16 -3.2      +0.8 161 -4.1 295 64.8 286 -4.8 258 -7.3 11
238 Air Force 0.2%   9 - 19 2 - 14 9 - 21 2 - 16 -3.8      -0.2 185 -3.6 280 58.9 356 -5.6 269 -6.8 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.6 23.5 27.5 31.1 7.9 8.3 1.7
New Mexico 5.0 0.4 4.6 11.3 7.4 34.4 39.9 1.9
Boise St. 2.4 34.1 25.6 22.4 9.5 5.8 2.7
Colorado St. 6.7 1.4 29.7 68.5 0.4
Nevada 2.9 15.5 20.7 35.1 13.9 12.2 2.6
Utah St. 1.2 86.9 10.2 2.9
UNLV 3.9 5.3 11.9 28.2 9.4 36.5 8.7
Wyoming 8.0 0.1 3.1 96.8
Fresno St. 9.0 1.1 98.9
San Jose St. 10.3 0.6 70.0 29.4
Air Force 10.1 1.4 82.8 15.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 12 - 6 12.8 44.7 42.6
New Mexico 11 - 7 2.3 32.8 46.0 18.8
Boise St. 13 - 5 11.7 36.3 39.7 12.3
Colorado St. 10 - 8 1.2 18.6 80.1
Nevada 12 - 6 17.6 54.9 27.5
Utah St. 13 - 5 8.0 46.4 45.6
UNLV 12 - 6 5.0 44.6 40.1 10.3
Wyoming 7 - 11 16.9 50.1 30.5 2.5
Fresno St. 5 - 13 37.4 58.5 4.1
San Jose St. 2 - 16 75.2 23.0 1.8
Air Force 2 - 16 61.9 34.1 4.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 23.5% 1.3 8.9 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.4
New Mexico 0.4% 0.1 0.4
Boise St. 34.1% 7.8 14.6 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.4
Colorado St.
Nevada 15.5% 0.9 6.2 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4
Utah St. 86.9% 42.7 26.7 17.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
UNLV 5.3% 0.4 2.6 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.4
Wyoming
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 98.5% 22.4% 76.1% 5   0.0 0.2 5.8 23.5 34.2 22.1 7.2 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.5 98.1%
New Mexico 65.4% 17.1% 48.3% 11   0.0 0.4 3.9 8.3 6.5 7.8 10.5 19.3 8.6 0.0 34.6 58.3%
Boise St. 54.8% 14.3% 40.5% 11   0.0 0.2 2.1 3.9 5.4 7.4 10.6 16.6 8.6 0.1 45.2 47.3%
Colorado St. 74.2% 14.1% 60.2% 10   0.0 0.4 2.1 9.4 20.4 33.3 8.6 0.0 25.8 70.0%
Nevada 80.2% 12.9% 67.3% 9   0.1 2.4 7.7 14.5 17.9 19.5 14.6 3.6 0.0 19.9 77.2%
Utah St. 79.2% 11.5% 67.7% 7   0.0 0.7 7.4 18.7 15.2 11.3 11.6 10.6 3.6 0.0 20.8 76.5%
UNLV 9.7% 6.0% 3.7% 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.7 4.8 0.8 0.0 90.3 4.0%
Wyoming 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Air Force 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
San Diego St. 98.5% 0.1% 98.4% 72.2% 33.5% 11.2% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5%
New Mexico 65.4% 12.0% 60.0% 32.5% 10.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Boise St. 54.8% 10.5% 49.7% 25.0% 6.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Colorado St. 74.2% 17.5% 65.6% 30.6% 7.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Nevada 80.2% 7.1% 76.6% 36.9% 8.6% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Utah St. 79.2% 6.7% 75.6% 36.8% 9.6% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
UNLV 9.7% 1.8% 8.7% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.6 0.0 0.9 9.3 32.1 41.2 15.6 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.4 0.1 1.9 15.0 38.6 34.6 9.5 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 97.2% 2.4 2.8 17.5 35.5 30.9 11.5 1.8 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 58.4% 0.8 41.6 42.7 13.8 1.9 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 23.8% 0.3 76.2 21.8 1.9 0.1 0.0
Final Four 8.1% 0.1 91.9 8.0 0.2
Final Game 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
Champion 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8