San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#28
Expected Predictive Rating+17.5#15
Pace67.8#223
Improvement-3.0#338

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#63
First Shot+6.9#29
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#281
Layup/Dunks-0.8#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#158
Freethrows+3.6#32
Improvement-1.7#315

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#14
First Shot+3.0#87
After Offensive Rebounds+4.6#4
Layups/Dunks+4.9#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#303
Freethrows+2.7#44
Improvement-1.3#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.1% 3.0% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 5.8% 7.8% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 19.9% 24.7% 12.2%
Top 6 Seed 36.2% 43.2% 25.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.4% 82.1% 67.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.6% 77.1% 60.7%
Average Seed 6.8 6.4 7.5
.500 or above 98.1% 99.2% 96.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 95.0% 91.0%
Conference Champion 29.3% 32.7% 23.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four7.4% 6.3% 9.1%
First Round72.8% 79.0% 63.0%
Second Round46.7% 52.5% 37.5%
Sweet Sixteen21.0% 24.5% 15.3%
Elite Eight9.0% 10.7% 6.2%
Final Four3.8% 4.7% 2.4%
Championship Game1.5% 1.9% 0.8%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 25 - 29 - 7
Quad 38 - 117 - 8
Quad 44 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 201   Cal St. Fullerton W 83-57 94%     1 - 0 +21.3 +2.4 +16.7
  Nov 10, 2023 9   @ BYU L 65-74 26%     1 - 1 +10.3 +0.8 +9.5
  Nov 14, 2023 139   Long Beach St. W 88-76 89%     2 - 1 +10.7 +4.1 +5.4
  Nov 17, 2023 59   St. Mary's W 79-54 65%     3 - 1 +33.4 +22.2 +14.3
  Nov 19, 2023 57   Washington W 100-97 OT 64%     4 - 1 +11.7 +16.6 -5.3
  Nov 25, 2023 140   California W 76-67 OT 85%     5 - 1 +10.5 -0.2 +10.3
  Dec 01, 2023 236   @ UC San Diego W 63-62 88%     6 - 1 +0.4 -2.1 +2.7
  Dec 05, 2023 83   @ Grand Canyon W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 09, 2023 78   UC Irvine W 73-64 79%    
  Dec 21, 2023 101   Stanford W 76-65 84%    
  Dec 29, 2023 10   @ Gonzaga L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 03, 2024 187   Fresno St. W 75-58 93%    
  Jan 06, 2024 126   UNLV W 77-64 88%    
  Jan 09, 2024 146   @ San Jose St. W 69-61 78%    
  Jan 13, 2024 42   @ New Mexico L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 17, 2024 43   Nevada W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 20, 2024 76   @ Boise St. W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 23, 2024 163   Wyoming W 76-61 91%    
  Jan 30, 2024 21   @ Colorado St. L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 03, 2024 56   Utah St. W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 06, 2024 203   @ Air Force W 67-56 84%    
  Feb 09, 2024 43   @ Nevada L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 13, 2024 21   Colorado St. W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 16, 2024 42   New Mexico W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 20, 2024 56   @ Utah St. W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 24, 2024 187   @ Fresno St. W 72-61 82%    
  Feb 27, 2024 146   San Jose St. W 72-58 90%    
  Mar 05, 2024 126   @ UNLV W 74-67 73%    
  Mar 08, 2024 76   Boise St. W 71-63 77%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.9 9.3 7.2 3.4 0.8 29.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 8.3 6.9 2.1 0.3 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.5 4.3 0.8 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 5.5 3.5 0.5 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.2 0.1 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.9 8.6 11.9 14.9 15.6 13.6 11.4 7.4 3.4 0.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.4 0.0
16-2 96.6% 7.2    6.4 0.7
15-3 81.5% 9.3    6.2 2.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 43.1% 5.9    2.3 2.8 0.7 0.1
13-5 15.7% 2.4    0.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.3% 29.3 19.5 7.7 1.6 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 100.0% 52.9% 47.1% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.4% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 2.2 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 7.4% 99.7% 33.4% 66.3% 3.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-3 11.4% 99.4% 30.4% 69.0% 4.5 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.4 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
14-4 13.6% 96.4% 24.0% 72.4% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.9 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 95.2%
13-5 15.6% 93.3% 20.3% 72.9% 7.4 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 91.5%
12-6 14.9% 81.8% 15.6% 66.2% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.0 3.1 1.4 0.1 2.7 78.4%
11-7 11.9% 66.4% 13.4% 53.1% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.6 2.4 0.1 4.0 61.3%
10-8 8.6% 43.3% 10.5% 32.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.7 0.2 4.9 36.7%
9-9 5.9% 24.9% 9.6% 15.3% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.4 16.9%
8-10 3.4% 12.7% 8.7% 4.0% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 4.4%
7-11 1.7% 8.3% 7.6% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5 0.8%
6-12 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 76.4% 19.9% 56.5% 6.8 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.1 8.0 8.3 7.4 7.4 8.1 9.3 7.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 23.6 70.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 55.7 40.2 4.1