San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#116
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#116
Pace60.5#347
Improvement-0.7#253

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#165
First Shot+2.0#127
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#273
Layup/Dunks-1.9#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#187
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#11
Freethrows-3.7#341
Improvement+0.9#88

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#90
First Shot+3.7#80
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#226
Layups/Dunks-0.7#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#31
Freethrows+1.1#122
Improvement-1.6#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 1.4% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.9
.500 or above 67.3% 71.1% 44.6%
.500 or above in Conference 38.2% 40.2% 26.5%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.8% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 8.9% 13.5%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round3.5% 3.8% 1.4%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 22 - 33 - 9
Quad 35 - 49 - 13
Quad 47 - 116 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 69   UC Irvine W 72-64 45%     1 - 0 +12.9 +0.5 +12.0
  Nov 12, 2023 51   @ Texas Tech L 42-56 18%     1 - 1 -1.0 -16.8 +14.0
  Nov 17, 2023 151   Abilene Christian L 71-77 61%     1 - 2 -5.3 +5.0 -10.8
  Nov 18, 2023 274   Norfolk St. W 77-53 82%     2 - 2 +17.9 +4.4 +14.6
  Nov 20, 2023 328   Hampton W 71-52 89%     3 - 2 +9.0 -1.1 +11.7
  Nov 27, 2023 215   North Dakota St. W 78-65 80%     4 - 2 +7.5 +4.4 +3.6
  Nov 29, 2023 331   @ Cal Poly W 66-55 86%    
  Dec 02, 2023 195   @ Montana W 64-62 58%    
  Dec 04, 2023 215   @ North Dakota St. W 68-65 62%    
  Dec 09, 2023 287   New Orleans W 75-62 89%    
  Dec 17, 2023 195   Montana W 67-59 77%    
  Dec 20, 2023 125   Santa Clara W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 02, 2024 149   @ Wyoming L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 05, 2024 79   Boise St. L 62-63 49%    
  Jan 09, 2024 22   San Diego St. L 61-68 27%    
  Jan 13, 2024 193   @ Air Force W 59-57 57%    
  Jan 16, 2024 166   @ Fresno St. W 63-62 52%    
  Jan 24, 2024 49   New Mexico L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 27, 2024 129   UNLV W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 30, 2024 56   @ Utah St. L 61-70 22%    
  Feb 02, 2024 41   @ Nevada L 61-71 18%    
  Feb 06, 2024 166   Fresno St. W 66-59 72%    
  Feb 09, 2024 28   @ Colorado St. L 62-74 14%    
  Feb 13, 2024 193   Air Force W 62-54 76%    
  Feb 17, 2024 149   Wyoming W 67-61 69%    
  Feb 20, 2024 79   @ Boise St. L 60-66 29%    
  Feb 23, 2024 41   Nevada L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 27, 2024 22   @ San Diego St. L 58-71 13%    
  Mar 02, 2024 129   @ UNLV L 65-67 43%    
  Mar 06, 2024 56   Utah St. L 64-67 41%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.2 1.1 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.5 4.7 1.3 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.1 5.4 1.8 0.1 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 6.1 5.7 1.7 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.4 5.0 1.5 0.1 14.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 4.8 4.4 1.0 0.1 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 8.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 6.5 9.7 12.5 13.6 13.5 12.6 10.2 6.6 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 96.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 80.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 43.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 91.0% 10.1% 80.9% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0%
15-3 0.5% 67.7% 14.6% 53.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 62.2%
14-4 1.1% 35.6% 8.0% 27.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 30.0%
13-5 2.5% 20.1% 8.3% 11.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.0 12.9%
12-6 4.5% 9.7% 6.5% 3.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.1 3.4%
11-7 6.6% 5.2% 4.8% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.2 0.4%
10-8 10.2% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.1%
9-9 12.6% 3.1% 3.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.2
8-10 13.5% 2.4% 2.4% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.2
7-11 13.6% 1.3% 1.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.4
6-12 12.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.3
5-13 9.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.6
4-14 6.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.4
3-15 3.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.5
2-16 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-17 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 2.7% 1.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 96.1 1.3%