Nevada
Mountain West
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#41
Expected Predictive Rating+17.2#19
Pace68.5#200
Improvement+1.1#75

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#31
First Shot+5.4#49
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#133
Layup/Dunks+4.7#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#294
Freethrows+2.4#48
Improvement+1.1#70

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#56
First Shot+1.3#127
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#15
Layups/Dunks+1.4#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#352
Freethrows+6.1#2
Improvement+0.0#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 2.6% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 8.8% 9.3% 2.2%
Top 6 Seed 18.2% 19.2% 6.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.6% 57.3% 35.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.8% 49.5% 28.3%
Average Seed 7.8 7.7 8.9
.500 or above 97.2% 97.8% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 87.7% 76.6%
Conference Champion 19.8% 20.4% 11.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.8%
First Four8.4% 8.4% 7.7%
First Round51.5% 53.1% 31.2%
Second Round29.1% 30.2% 15.1%
Sweet Sixteen11.9% 12.4% 5.2%
Elite Eight4.8% 5.0% 2.0%
Final Four1.9% 2.0% 0.7%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 24 - 27 - 6
Quad 38 - 214 - 7
Quad 47 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 270   Sacramento St. W 77-63 96%     1 - 0 +5.2 +2.0 +3.6
  Nov 12, 2023 65   @ Washington W 83-76 48%     2 - 0 +18.3 +10.8 +7.1
  Nov 15, 2023 279   Pacific W 88-39 96%     3 - 0 +39.7 +9.4 +28.6
  Nov 18, 2023 187   Portland W 108-83 92%     4 - 0 +20.5 +24.0 -5.1
  Nov 29, 2023 195   Montana W 77-61 92%    
  Dec 02, 2023 127   Loyola Marymount W 78-67 85%    
  Dec 06, 2023 199   UC Davis W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 09, 2023 81   Drake W 74-70 67%    
  Dec 13, 2023 124   Weber St. W 71-60 84%    
  Dec 17, 2023 118   @ Hawaii W 72-68 66%    
  Dec 21, 2023 145   Temple W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 06, 2024 166   @ Fresno St. W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 09, 2024 193   Air Force W 71-56 92%    
  Jan 12, 2024 79   Boise St. W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 17, 2024 22   @ San Diego St. L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 20, 2024 149   @ Wyoming W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 24, 2024 28   Colorado St. W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 28, 2024 49   @ New Mexico L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 02, 2024 116   San Jose St. W 71-61 82%    
  Feb 06, 2024 56   @ Utah St. L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 09, 2024 22   San Diego St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 13, 2024 49   New Mexico W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 17, 2024 129   @ UNLV W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 20, 2024 149   Wyoming W 77-64 87%    
  Feb 23, 2024 116   @ San Jose St. W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 27, 2024 28   @ Colorado St. L 72-77 33%    
  Mar 01, 2024 166   Fresno St. W 76-62 88%    
  Mar 05, 2024 79   @ Boise St. W 70-69 54%    
  Mar 09, 2024 129   UNLV W 78-67 84%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.8 6.0 4.3 1.9 0.4 19.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.1 5.4 1.7 0.2 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.3 7.3 4.2 0.8 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.9 6.2 3.0 0.4 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.3 1.6 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.9 8.4 11.6 13.3 14.3 13.7 11.0 7.7 4.5 1.9 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
16-2 95.9% 4.3    3.7 0.6
15-3 77.2% 6.0    3.8 2.0 0.2
14-4 43.8% 4.8    2.1 2.0 0.7 0.0
13-5 14.9% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.8% 19.8 12.3 5.6 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 2.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.5% 99.7% 31.2% 68.5% 3.8 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-3 7.7% 98.5% 26.2% 72.3% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
14-4 11.0% 92.1% 21.3% 70.8% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.9 89.9%
13-5 13.7% 84.6% 18.3% 66.3% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.1 2.1 81.1%
12-6 14.3% 63.6% 14.2% 49.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 2.5 0.3 5.2 57.6%
11-7 13.3% 44.8% 11.8% 33.0% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.3 37.4%
10-8 11.6% 24.2% 9.5% 14.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 8.8 16.2%
9-9 8.4% 12.4% 6.7% 5.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.4 6.1%
8-10 5.9% 6.2% 5.3% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.9%
7-11 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 55.6% 15.0% 40.6% 7.8 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.9 4.2 5.2 5.3 5.5 6.7 8.8 9.0 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 44.4 47.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 47.5 2.5