Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#187
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#256
Pace66.7#252
Improvement-0.5#217

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#241
First Shot-1.3#211
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#236
Layup/Dunks+0.6#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows-3.4#338
Improvement-1.6#308

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#143
First Shot-1.1#213
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#44
Layups/Dunks-0.5#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#122
Freethrows+1.4#106
Improvement+1.1#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 11.3% 13.4% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 9.9% 11.1% 5.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.9% 29.0% 42.3%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 41 - 7
Quad 21 - 52 - 12
Quad 33 - 55 - 17
Quad 46 - 211 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 108   @ Kent St. L 69-79 22%     0 - 1 -3.0 +1.2 -4.4
  Nov 15, 2023 337   Morgan St. W 87-68 89%     1 - 1 +4.4 -0.2 +3.0
  Nov 21, 2023 254   New Mexico St. W 81-76 OT 65%     2 - 1 +0.0 -0.5 +0.3
  Nov 22, 2023 68   James Madison L 64-95 20%     2 - 2 -23.1 -10.0 -11.9
  Nov 27, 2023 154   UC Santa Barbara L 65-69 56%     2 - 3 -6.6 -11.2 +4.6
  Dec 01, 2023 9   BYU L 56-85 6%     2 - 4 -12.7 -8.3 -4.9
  Dec 05, 2023 274   Idaho St. W 69-61 78%    
  Dec 09, 2023 311   Pacific W 74-64 82%    
  Dec 15, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-59 78%    
  Dec 18, 2023 161   Portland St. W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 22, 2023 69   @ San Francisco L 61-73 13%    
  Dec 29, 2023 215   @ San Diego L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 03, 2024 28   @ San Diego St. L 58-75 7%    
  Jan 06, 2024 43   Nevada L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 13, 2024 163   @ Wyoming L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 16, 2024 146   San Jose St. W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 20, 2024 56   @ Utah St. L 62-75 12%    
  Jan 23, 2024 76   Boise St. L 63-68 32%    
  Jan 27, 2024 203   Air Force W 63-59 62%    
  Jan 30, 2024 126   @ UNLV L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 03, 2024 21   Colorado St. L 67-78 15%    
  Feb 06, 2024 146   @ San Jose St. L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 10, 2024 203   @ Air Force L 60-62 43%    
  Feb 14, 2024 126   UNLV L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 17, 2024 76   @ Boise St. L 60-71 16%    
  Feb 24, 2024 28   San Diego St. L 61-72 18%    
  Feb 27, 2024 56   Utah St. L 65-72 27%    
  Mar 01, 2024 43   @ Nevada L 62-77 10%    
  Mar 06, 2024 42   @ New Mexico L 67-82 9%    
  Mar 09, 2024 163   Wyoming W 68-66 56%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 4.4 3.5 0.7 0.1 10.8 7th
8th 0.2 3.0 6.1 4.5 0.8 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.6 4.2 8.1 4.7 1.0 0.1 18.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 5.8 8.3 4.4 0.7 0.0 20.8 10th
11th 0.9 3.9 6.7 6.8 2.5 0.5 0.0 21.3 11th
Total 0.9 4.0 8.2 13.2 15.1 16.1 13.6 11.0 7.9 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 39.3% 0.0    0.0
13-5 11.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 17.9%
13-5 0.3% 0.3
12-6 0.6% 4.7% 4.7% 12.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 4.7% 2.6% 2.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6
8-10 7.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.9
7-11 11.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 10.9
6-12 13.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.5
5-13 16.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 16.0
4-14 15.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.1
3-15 13.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.2
2-16 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
1-17 4.0% 4.0
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 99.2 0.0%