New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#42
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#42
Pace77.6#27
Improvement+3.6#13

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#28
First Shot+5.6#46
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#111
Layup/Dunks+5.9#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#233
Freethrows+1.5#95
Improvement+2.1#36

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#59
First Shot+3.8#70
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#148
Layups/Dunks+1.1#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows-1.9#290
Improvement+1.5#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 1.9% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 6.7% 7.2% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 15.0% 15.9% 6.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.2% 53.8% 35.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.9% 44.6% 26.8%
Average Seed 8.1 8.0 9.1
.500 or above 99.4% 99.7% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 90.4% 83.9%
Conference Champion 20.1% 20.9% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four8.5% 8.6% 7.8%
First Round48.1% 49.9% 31.6%
Second Round27.4% 28.7% 15.1%
Sweet Sixteen11.4% 12.1% 4.9%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.9% 1.8%
Final Four1.7% 1.8% 1.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 26 - 6
Quad 39 - 115 - 8
Quad 47 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 233   Texas Southern W 92-55 94%     1 - 0 +30.5 +9.6 +17.6
  Nov 09, 2023 59   @ St. Mary's L 58-72 49%     1 - 1 -2.6 -4.5 +1.3
  Nov 16, 2023 167   Texas Arlington W 82-80 90%     2 - 1 -1.2 +2.8 -4.1
  Nov 21, 2023 120   Toledo W 92-84 78%     3 - 1 +11.0 +3.1 +6.7
  Nov 22, 2023 237   Rice W 90-56 91%     4 - 1 +30.3 +9.1 +19.4
  Nov 24, 2023 182   Pepperdine W 90-71 87%     5 - 1 +18.1 +7.1 +9.3
  Nov 29, 2023 102   Louisiana Tech W 74-65 82%     6 - 1 +10.6 +3.4 +7.2
  Dec 02, 2023 254   New Mexico St. W 106-62 95%     7 - 1 +36.0 +29.4 +7.4
  Dec 06, 2023 154   UC Santa Barbara W 86-72 91%    
  Dec 09, 2023 135   Santa Clara W 86-77 80%    
  Dec 15, 2023 254   @ New Mexico St. W 86-73 88%    
  Dec 20, 2023 78   UC Irvine W 80-73 75%    
  Jan 02, 2024 21   @ Colorado St. L 78-83 32%    
  Jan 06, 2024 163   Wyoming W 82-68 90%    
  Jan 09, 2024 126   @ UNLV W 81-75 69%    
  Jan 13, 2024 28   San Diego St. W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 16, 2024 56   Utah St. W 80-75 69%    
  Jan 20, 2024 203   @ Air Force W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 24, 2024 146   @ San Jose St. W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 28, 2024 43   Nevada W 79-76 62%    
  Jan 31, 2024 76   Boise St. W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 06, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 10, 2024 126   UNLV W 84-72 85%    
  Feb 13, 2024 43   @ Nevada L 76-79 42%    
  Feb 16, 2024 28   @ San Diego St. L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 21, 2024 21   Colorado St. W 81-80 52%    
  Feb 24, 2024 203   Air Force W 76-60 92%    
  Mar 02, 2024 76   @ Boise St. W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 06, 2024 187   Fresno St. W 82-67 91%    
  Mar 09, 2024 56   @ Utah St. L 77-78 47%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.1 6.6 4.2 1.5 0.4 20.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.6 5.9 1.6 0.2 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.6 4.8 0.9 0.0 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.1 3.3 0.4 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.8 2.8 0.3 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 5.0 8.1 10.7 14.9 14.9 15.0 11.9 8.2 4.4 1.5 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 95.1% 4.2    3.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 80.0% 6.6    4.3 2.1 0.1
14-4 42.7% 5.1    1.9 2.4 0.7 0.1
13-5 14.3% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 12.4 5.9 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 2.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.4% 99.1% 29.9% 69.2% 4.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
15-3 8.2% 96.3% 27.7% 68.6% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 94.9%
14-4 11.9% 90.2% 24.6% 65.6% 7.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.3 1.2 87.0%
13-5 15.0% 73.4% 17.0% 56.4% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.4 1.8 0.1 4.0 68.0%
12-6 14.9% 55.1% 16.8% 38.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 3.1 0.3 6.7 46.0%
11-7 14.9% 31.1% 11.5% 19.6% 10.7 0.1 0.2 1.4 2.6 0.4 10.2 22.2%
10-8 10.7% 17.2% 9.1% 8.2% 11.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 8.8 9.0%
9-9 8.1% 11.8% 9.1% 2.7% 11.6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 7.1 2.9%
8-10 5.0% 7.9% 7.6% 0.2% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.3%
7-11 2.7% 7.1% 7.1% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
6-12 1.5% 4.7% 4.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 52.2% 16.3% 35.9% 8.1 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.2 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.0 6.3 9.4 9.5 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 47.9 42.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 2.2 23.6 41.7 25.2 9.4