Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#56
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#39
Pace68.4#206
Improvement+1.7#70

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#62
First Shot+5.6#45
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#225
Layup/Dunks+12.6#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#275
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#295
Freethrows-1.4#257
Improvement+2.7#19

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#63
First Shot+2.9#89
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#98
Layups/Dunks-1.2#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#24
Freethrows+0.9#132
Improvement-0.9#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 5.9% 6.4% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 34.5% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.6% 26.8% 13.8%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 9.6
.500 or above 96.5% 97.1% 89.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.0% 82.8% 73.8%
Conference Champion 12.5% 13.1% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.7%
First Four6.9% 7.1% 4.7%
First Round29.6% 30.9% 17.0%
Second Round14.7% 15.3% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 5.2% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.8% 1.2%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 91.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 36 - 7
Quad 38 - 214 - 9
Quad 46 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 92   @ Bradley L 66-72 OT 53%     0 - 1 +2.3 -7.7 +10.6
  Nov 14, 2023 247   Southern Utah W 93-84 93%     1 - 1 +1.6 +9.1 -8.0
  Nov 19, 2023 196   Marshall W 83-60 84%     2 - 1 +21.5 +7.0 +13.7
  Nov 20, 2023 113   Akron W 65-62 69%     3 - 1 +6.7 -1.9 +8.8
  Nov 21, 2023 106   Stephen F. Austin W 79-49 68%     4 - 1 +34.1 +8.6 +25.1
  Nov 28, 2023 188   @ Saint Louis W 81-76 75%     5 - 1 +6.8 +10.9 -3.9
  Dec 02, 2023 78   UC Irvine W 79-69 69%     6 - 1 +13.9 +15.6 -1.0
  Dec 06, 2023 215   San Diego W 80-66 91%    
  Dec 13, 2023 135   @ Santa Clara W 78-74 65%    
  Dec 16, 2023 69   San Francisco W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 22, 2023 244   East Tennessee St. W 78-62 93%    
  Jan 02, 2024 203   @ Air Force W 67-59 77%    
  Jan 06, 2024 21   Colorado St. L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 09, 2024 163   Wyoming W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 13, 2024 126   @ UNLV W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 16, 2024 42   @ New Mexico L 75-80 31%    
  Jan 20, 2024 187   Fresno St. W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 27, 2024 76   @ Boise St. L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 30, 2024 146   San Jose St. W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 03, 2024 28   @ San Diego St. L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 06, 2024 43   Nevada W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 10, 2024 76   Boise St. W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 14, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 17, 2024 21   @ Colorado St. L 72-79 26%    
  Feb 20, 2024 28   San Diego St. L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 27, 2024 187   @ Fresno St. W 72-65 73%    
  Mar 01, 2024 203   Air Force W 70-56 89%    
  Mar 06, 2024 146   @ San Jose St. W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 09, 2024 42   New Mexico W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 3.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 12.5 1st
2nd 0.5 2.9 6.1 4.2 1.1 0.1 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 7.3 3.9 0.6 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.5 3.8 0.3 0.0 16.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.1 3.0 0.3 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.7 2.0 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.9 1.2 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.5 5.0 8.2 10.9 13.0 15.0 14.5 11.7 8.5 5.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 95.2% 2.3    2.0 0.3
15-3 77.3% 3.9    2.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.3% 3.8    1.5 1.8 0.4 0.1
13-5 11.5% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 6.9 4.2 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 3.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 98.6% 26.8% 71.8% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1%
15-3 5.0% 93.3% 22.2% 71.1% 6.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 91.4%
14-4 8.5% 81.5% 19.3% 62.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 1.6 77.1%
13-5 11.7% 60.3% 12.7% 47.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 4.6 54.6%
12-6 14.5% 37.4% 11.2% 26.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.1 29.5%
11-7 15.0% 20.8% 8.9% 11.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.9 13.1%
10-8 13.0% 10.7% 7.6% 3.1% 11.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 11.6 3.3%
9-9 10.9% 6.1% 5.4% 0.7% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.3 0.7%
8-10 8.2% 4.2% 4.0% 0.3% 12.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.3%
7-11 5.0% 2.8% 2.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8
6-12 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 33.2% 10.2% 23.0% 8.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.0 4.1 7.0 8.4 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 66.8 25.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 28.6 16.7 54.8