Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#79
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#94
Pace66.1#270
Improvement-1.2#292

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#123
First Shot+4.9#59
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#325
Layup/Dunks+4.1#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
Freethrows+1.7#80
Improvement-0.8#276

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#52
First Shot+5.9#30
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#259
Layups/Dunks+0.0#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#21
Freethrows+1.1#120
Improvement-0.4#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 2.0% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 20.6% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.2% 14.6% 5.3%
Average Seed 10.1 9.6 10.8
.500 or above 57.1% 71.0% 46.7%
.500 or above in Conference 56.5% 63.4% 51.5%
Conference Champion 4.6% 6.1% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 2.5% 5.4%
First Four3.0% 4.1% 2.2%
First Round13.2% 18.5% 9.2%
Second Round5.2% 7.8% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.2% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Neutral) - 42.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 7
Quad 24 - 46 - 11
Quad 35 - 211 - 13
Quad 44 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2023 72   San Francisco W 63-58 58%     1 - 0 +9.5 -3.6 +13.3
  Nov 19, 2023 46   @ Clemson L 68-85 25%     1 - 1 -3.5 +2.1 -5.8
  Nov 23, 2023 63   Virginia Tech L 75-82 43%     1 - 2 +1.5 +2.0 -0.2
  Nov 24, 2023 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 65-61 51%     2 - 2 +10.3 +3.4 +7.2
  Nov 26, 2023 50   Butler L 56-70 37%     2 - 3 -4.0 -9.2 +4.6
  Dec 01, 2023 61   St. Mary's L 61-63 43%    
  Dec 05, 2023 77   North Texas W 59-56 60%    
  Dec 12, 2023 343   Northwestern St. W 82-60 98%    
  Dec 17, 2023 203   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-60 86%    
  Dec 21, 2023 64   Washington St. L 66-68 44%    
  Dec 29, 2023 171   Utah Valley W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 05, 2024 116   @ San Jose St. W 63-62 51%    
  Jan 09, 2024 28   Colorado St. L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 12, 2024 41   @ Nevada L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 16, 2024 129   UNLV W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 20, 2024 22   San Diego St. L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 23, 2024 166   @ Fresno St. W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 56   Utah St. W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 31, 2024 49   @ New Mexico L 72-78 28%    
  Feb 03, 2024 193   Air Force W 66-55 84%    
  Feb 06, 2024 28   @ Colorado St. L 66-75 20%    
  Feb 10, 2024 56   @ Utah St. L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 17, 2024 166   Fresno St. W 71-61 80%    
  Feb 20, 2024 116   San Jose St. W 66-60 71%    
  Feb 24, 2024 149   @ Wyoming W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 27, 2024 193   @ Air Force W 63-58 68%    
  Mar 02, 2024 49   New Mexico L 74-75 48%    
  Mar 05, 2024 41   Nevada L 69-70 46%    
  Mar 08, 2024 22   @ San Diego St. L 63-73 21%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.1 1.5 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.1 5.2 1.9 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 5.0 5.6 2.1 0.1 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.4 5.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.3 5.0 1.8 0.1 13.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.1 1.4 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 3.3 5.3 8.0 11.6 13.1 13.8 12.6 11.0 8.2 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 95.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 80.9% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 47.5% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 97.8% 24.5% 73.4% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
15-3 1.4% 89.9% 17.0% 72.9% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 87.8%
14-4 3.2% 77.4% 19.5% 58.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.7 72.0%
13-5 5.6% 54.6% 12.5% 42.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.5 48.1%
12-6 8.2% 32.6% 10.5% 22.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.5 24.6%
11-7 11.0% 16.5% 8.5% 8.0% 11.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.2 8.8%
10-8 12.6% 7.9% 6.3% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.6 1.7%
9-9 13.8% 5.0% 4.8% 0.2% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.1 0.3%
8-10 13.1% 3.6% 3.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.6
7-11 11.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.3
6-12 8.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.8
5-13 5.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.2
4-14 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.7% 6.0% 8.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 85.3 9.2%