Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#21
Expected Predictive Rating+21.9#4
Pace69.5#178
Improvement+0.5#147

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#11
First Shot+12.6#2
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#314
Layup/Dunks+7.7#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#70
Freethrows+1.9#73
Improvement+1.1#84

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#79
First Shot+2.8#90
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#145
Layups/Dunks+0.2#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#41
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement-0.6#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.5% 4.6% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 11.3% 11.5% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 32.3% 32.7% 12.8%
Top 6 Seed 54.2% 54.7% 33.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.7% 91.0% 81.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.5% 87.8% 76.8%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.2
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 96.2% 93.5%
Conference Champion 36.5% 36.7% 26.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 5.3%
First Round88.3% 88.5% 79.0%
Second Round59.7% 60.1% 43.5%
Sweet Sixteen28.7% 28.9% 20.7%
Elite Eight12.4% 12.6% 6.6%
Final Four5.1% 5.1% 2.7%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 1.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 97.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 3
Quad 26 - 210 - 4
Quad 38 - 118 - 5
Quad 45 - 024 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 102   Louisiana Tech W 81-73 86%     1 - 0 +9.6 +8.3 +1.1
  Nov 10, 2023 130   Wright St. W 105-77 90%     2 - 0 +27.4 +19.7 +5.5
  Nov 14, 2023 270   @ Northern Colorado W 83-64 92%     3 - 0 +16.1 +6.6 +8.8
  Nov 17, 2023 282   UMKC W 84-61 97%     4 - 0 +13.5 +7.5 +6.1
  Nov 22, 2023 97   Boston College W 86-74 79%     5 - 0 +16.8 +15.2 +1.6
  Nov 23, 2023 11   Creighton W 69-48 39%     6 - 0 +37.0 +6.6 +31.4
  Nov 29, 2023 40   Colorado W 88-83 68%     7 - 0 +13.3 +18.8 -5.4
  Dec 02, 2023 57   Washington W 86-81 67%     8 - 0 +13.7 +19.2 -5.4
  Dec 06, 2023 260   Denver W 91-70 98%    
  Dec 09, 2023 59   St. Mary's W 72-64 77%    
  Dec 22, 2023 125   @ Loyola Marymount W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 02, 2024 42   New Mexico W 83-78 68%    
  Jan 06, 2024 56   @ Utah St. W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 09, 2024 76   @ Boise St. W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 16, 2024 203   Air Force W 75-57 95%    
  Jan 19, 2024 126   UNLV W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 24, 2024 43   @ Nevada L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 30, 2024 28   San Diego St. W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 03, 2024 187   @ Fresno St. W 78-67 85%    
  Feb 06, 2024 76   Boise St. W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 09, 2024 146   San Jose St. W 78-63 91%    
  Feb 13, 2024 28   @ San Diego St. L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 17, 2024 56   Utah St. W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 21, 2024 42   @ New Mexico L 80-81 48%    
  Feb 24, 2024 126   @ UNLV W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 27, 2024 43   Nevada W 79-73 69%    
  Mar 02, 2024 163   Wyoming W 81-65 93%    
  Mar 09, 2024 203   @ Air Force W 72-60 86%    
Projected Record 24 - 5 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.7 10.7 9.0 4.6 1.5 36.5 1st
2nd 0.5 3.6 8.2 7.7 2.7 0.3 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.1 4.8 0.8 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 2.9 0.4 10.5 4th
5th 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 0.9 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.1 6.3 10.5 14.2 16.0 16.2 13.5 9.3 4.6 1.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 4.6    4.5 0.1
16-2 96.6% 9.0    8.0 1.0 0.0
15-3 79.5% 10.7    7.2 3.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.5% 7.7    3.4 3.4 0.9 0.1
13-5 16.5% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.5% 36.5 25.1 8.9 2.0 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 100.0% 56.1% 43.9% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-1 4.6% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.9 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 9.3% 99.9% 41.8% 58.1% 2.6 1.3 2.8 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-3 13.5% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 3.8 0.4 1.5 3.8 4.1 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 16.2% 99.6% 28.2% 71.4% 4.9 0.1 0.3 2.0 3.9 4.8 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
13-5 16.0% 97.8% 24.0% 73.8% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 4.2 3.7 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 97.1%
12-6 14.2% 94.6% 20.2% 74.4% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.8 3.0 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.8 93.2%
11-7 10.5% 86.8% 17.4% 69.4% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.5 2.9 1.1 0.0 1.4 84.1%
10-8 6.3% 73.4% 14.5% 58.9% 10.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 1.4 0.1 1.7 68.9%
9-9 4.1% 56.8% 10.2% 46.6% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.1 1.8 51.9%
8-10 2.1% 21.1% 7.6% 13.6% 10.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6 14.7%
7-11 1.1% 9.8% 9.3% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.6%
6-12 0.5% 3.8% 3.8% 12.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.1% 22.4% 22.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 90.7% 25.8% 65.0% 5.9 4.5 6.8 10.2 10.7 11.4 10.6 8.8 7.2 7.6 8.1 4.4 0.4 0.0 9.3 87.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.3 70.1 26.6 3.3