Wyoming
Mountain West
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#149
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#103
Pace67.0#241
Improvement-0.6#237

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#182
First Shot-1.5#217
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#106
Layup/Dunks-1.8#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#201
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement-0.5#236

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#137
First Shot+4.2#68
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#340
Layups/Dunks-0.1#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#95
Freethrows+3.2#23
Improvement-0.1#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.4% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.1 12.7 13.9
.500 or above 22.1% 32.1% 13.0%
.500 or above in Conference 18.1% 22.7% 13.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 22.1% 17.9% 25.9%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round1.5% 2.1% 0.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 7
Quad 22 - 42 - 11
Quad 35 - 58 - 16
Quad 43 - 111 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 331   Cal Poly W 80-66 91%     1 - 0 +0.1 +0.2 -0.6
  Nov 16, 2023 148   Saint Louis L 69-79 50%     1 - 1 -9.0 -8.3 +0.0
  Nov 17, 2023 122   College of Charleston W 67-60 42%     2 - 1 +10.1 -2.8 +13.0
  Nov 19, 2023 115   Furman W 78-71 40%     3 - 1 +10.5 +3.4 +7.2
  Nov 26, 2023 30   @ Texas L 63-86 9%     3 - 2 -7.3 -2.1 -5.7
  Dec 01, 2023 187   @ Portland L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 09, 2023 97   Stephen F. Austin L 71-72 47%    
  Dec 16, 2023 124   Weber St. W 64-63 53%    
  Dec 20, 2023 143   South Dakota St. L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 30, 2023 11   @ BYU L 63-81 5%    
  Jan 02, 2024 116   San Jose St. W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 06, 2024 49   @ New Mexico L 70-82 14%    
  Jan 09, 2024 56   @ Utah St. L 64-75 16%    
  Jan 13, 2024 166   Fresno St. W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 20, 2024 41   Nevada L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 23, 2024 22   @ San Diego St. L 61-76 9%    
  Jan 27, 2024 28   Colorado St. L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 30, 2024 193   @ Air Force L 61-62 48%    
  Feb 03, 2024 129   @ UNLV L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 06, 2024 49   New Mexico L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 14, 2024 56   Utah St. L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 17, 2024 116   @ San Jose St. L 61-67 31%    
  Feb 20, 2024 41   @ Nevada L 64-77 13%    
  Feb 24, 2024 79   Boise St. L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 27, 2024 129   UNLV W 70-69 55%    
  Mar 02, 2024 28   @ Colorado St. L 65-80 9%    
  Mar 05, 2024 193   Air Force W 65-59 69%    
  Mar 09, 2024 166   @ Fresno St. L 66-68 44%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.2 3.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.3 0.8 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.7 4.6 1.1 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 6.5 5.0 1.3 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.5 5.5 1.3 0.1 17.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.1 6.9 4.3 1.1 0.0 17.3 10th
11th 0.5 2.1 4.3 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.8 11th
Total 0.5 2.1 5.3 8.8 12.2 14.6 14.7 13.3 10.4 7.6 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 65.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 44.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 71.9% 6.3% 65.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.0%
14-4 0.4% 45.1% 10.3% 34.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 38.8%
13-5 0.6% 20.7% 10.8% 9.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 11.1%
12-6 1.5% 13.3% 7.7% 5.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 6.0%
11-7 3.0% 5.3% 3.8% 1.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8 1.5%
10-8 4.9% 3.2% 3.0% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.3%
9-9 7.6% 2.2% 2.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4
8-10 10.4% 2.1% 2.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.2
7-11 13.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.1 0.1 13.1
6-12 14.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.5
5-13 14.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.6
4-14 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
3-15 8.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.8
2-16 5.3% 5.3
1-17 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 98.3 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%