Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#203
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#186
Pace59.0#356
Improvement+0.2#172

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#283
First Shot-2.1#239
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#273
Layup/Dunks-2.7#270
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#73
Freethrows-1.6#262
Improvement-2.4#338

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#117
First Shot+1.4#129
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#124
Layups/Dunks-1.5#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows-0.8#239
Improvement+2.6#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 28.0% 42.1% 20.7%
.500 or above in Conference 6.7% 9.6% 5.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 37.2% 31.9% 39.9%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 34.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 21 - 41 - 10
Quad 33 - 54 - 15
Quad 49 - 213 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 161   Portland St. L 55-62 54%     0 - 1 -9.9 -11.7 +0.9
  Nov 10, 2023 347   @ LIU Brooklyn W 82-67 77%     1 - 1 +5.4 +5.8 -0.4
  Nov 12, 2023 156   @ Delaware L 57-65 31%     1 - 2 -4.7 -1.6 -4.9
  Nov 16, 2023 340   Lindenwood W 76-58 89%     2 - 2 +3.1 -3.0 +6.5
  Nov 17, 2023 315   William & Mary W 80-71 OT 82%     3 - 2 -2.5 +1.5 -3.6
  Nov 19, 2023 281   Nebraska Omaha W 58-56 77%     4 - 2 -7.4 -15.7 +8.5
  Nov 22, 2023 342   VMI W 64-54 89%     5 - 2 -5.1 -9.5 +5.3
  Nov 26, 2023 289   @ South Dakota W 58-57 58%     6 - 2 -3.0 -15.1 +12.2
  Dec 03, 2023 171   @ Portland L 64-69 34%    
  Dec 09, 2023 217   Eastern Washington W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 16, 2023 167   Texas Arlington L 63-65 44%    
  Dec 21, 2023 270   Northern Colorado W 68-61 75%    
  Jan 02, 2024 56   Utah St. L 59-67 23%    
  Jan 09, 2024 43   @ Nevada L 56-71 8%    
  Jan 13, 2024 146   San Jose St. W 60-59 50%    
  Jan 16, 2024 21   @ Colorado St. L 57-75 5%    
  Jan 20, 2024 42   New Mexico L 63-73 18%    
  Jan 23, 2024 126   @ UNLV L 61-68 26%    
  Jan 27, 2024 187   @ Fresno St. L 59-63 38%    
  Jan 30, 2024 163   Wyoming W 62-61 54%    
  Feb 03, 2024 76   @ Boise St. L 55-67 14%    
  Feb 06, 2024 28   San Diego St. L 56-67 16%    
  Feb 10, 2024 187   Fresno St. W 62-60 57%    
  Feb 13, 2024 146   @ San Jose St. L 56-62 30%    
  Feb 21, 2024 126   UNLV L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 24, 2024 42   @ New Mexico L 60-76 8%    
  Feb 27, 2024 76   Boise St. L 58-64 29%    
  Mar 01, 2024 56   @ Utah St. L 56-70 11%    
  Mar 05, 2024 163   @ Wyoming L 59-64 34%    
  Mar 09, 2024 21   Colorado St. L 60-72 14%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 6.1 4.0 0.6 0.0 13.8 8th
9th 0.6 4.6 8.3 4.5 0.8 0.0 18.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 6.4 9.4 4.3 0.7 0.0 22.7 10th
11th 1.4 4.8 8.3 7.3 3.0 0.5 0.1 25.4 11th
Total 1.4 4.9 10.0 14.3 17.2 16.1 13.3 9.9 6.1 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 63.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.6% 0.0    0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 13.9% 13.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.1% 10.6% 10.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 13.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.8% 2.7% 2.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 3.5% 1.9% 1.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
8-10 6.1% 0.8% 0.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
7-11 9.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.9
6-12 13.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.2
5-13 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-14 17.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.1
3-15 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
2-16 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
1-17 4.9% 4.9
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%