Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.6#3
Expected Predictive Rating+29.8#1
Pace76.2#37
Improvement+4.0#14

Offense
Total Offense+11.7#6
First Shot+12.6#1
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#241
Layup/Dunks+9.2#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#263
Freethrows+2.0#78
Improvement+1.2#85

Defense
Total Defense+11.0#5
First Shot+8.8#10
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#43
Layups/Dunks+7.5#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#140
Freethrows+1.7#80
Improvement+2.8#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 13.3% 14.2% 7.6%
#1 Seed 50.3% 52.1% 37.6%
Top 2 Seed 82.5% 84.2% 70.4%
Top 4 Seed 97.7% 98.2% 94.4%
Top 6 Seed 99.7% 99.8% 99.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.8 1.7 2.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.3% 98.6%
Conference Champion 40.7% 41.9% 31.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.3% 98.5% 96.9%
Sweet Sixteen78.2% 79.1% 72.0%
Elite Eight53.4% 54.7% 44.5%
Final Four32.6% 33.8% 24.6%
Championship Game18.1% 18.8% 13.3%
National Champion9.8% 10.3% 6.6%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Neutral) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 38 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 114 - 4
Quad 26 - 020 - 5
Quad 32 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 13 Florida W 93-87 68%     1 - 0 +23.8 +16.6 +6.4
  Fri, Nov 7 262 Utah Tech W 93-67 99%     2 - 0 +17.4 +15.4 +1.6
  Tue, Nov 11 271 Northern Arizona W 84-49 99%     3 - 0 +26.1 +6.2 +19.4
  Fri, Nov 14 30 UCLA W 69-65 79%     4 - 0 +18.2 +4.4 +14.0
  Wed, Nov 19 6 @Connecticut W 71-67 44%     5 - 0 +28.1 +18.3 +10.2
  Mon, Nov 24 314 Denver W 103-73 99.6%    6 - 0 +18.0 +10.9 +5.0
  Sat, Nov 29 226 Norfolk St. W 98-61 99%     7 - 0 +30.0 +17.9 +9.4
  Sat, Dec 6 28 Auburn W 97-68 85%     8 - 0 +40.4 +21.3 +17.4
  Sat, Dec 13 16 Alabama W 96-75 69%     9 - 0 +38.4 +20.1 +16.7
  Tue, Dec 16 223 Abilene Christian W 96-62 99%     10 - 0 +27.3 +17.0 +8.5
  Sat, Dec 20 52 San Diego St. W 85-73 88%    
  Mon, Dec 22 259 Bethune-Cookman W 93-62 99.8%   
  Mon, Dec 29 164 South Dakota St. W 91-65 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 119 @Utah W 89-72 94%    
  Wed, Jan 7 67 Kansas St. W 93-76 94%    
  Sat, Jan 10 54 @TCU W 81-71 81%    
  Wed, Jan 14 63 Arizona St. W 89-72 94%    
  Sat, Jan 17 55 @Central Florida W 87-77 82%    
  Wed, Jan 21 69 Cincinnati W 84-66 95%    
  Sat, Jan 24 68 West Virginia W 81-64 94%    
  Mon, Jan 26 9 @BYU L 78-79 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 63 @Arizona St. W 86-75 84%    
  Sat, Feb 7 51 Oklahoma St. W 93-78 92%    
  Mon, Feb 9 17 @Kansas W 75-73 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 27 Texas Tech W 84-73 84%    
  Wed, Feb 18 9 BYU W 81-75 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 8 @Houston L 71-72 49%    
  Tue, Feb 24 32 @Baylor W 86-80 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 17 Kansas W 78-70 77%    
  Mon, Mar 2 4 Iowa St. W 81-77 63%    
  Sat, Mar 7 65 @Colorado W 87-76 83%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.8 11.1 13.4 8.9 2.9 40.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.7 8.9 7.2 2.0 0.1 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 7.0 4.9 0.8 15.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.6 9.8 14.9 18.2 19.1 15.4 9.1 2.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
17-1 98.6% 8.9    8.2 0.7
16-2 87.0% 13.4    9.4 3.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 58.1% 11.1    4.7 5.1 1.3 0.1
14-4 21.1% 3.8    0.9 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.7% 40.7 26.1 11.1 2.9 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.9% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.1 2.7 0.3 100.0%
17-1 9.1% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 1.1 7.8 1.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 15.4% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 1.2 12.2 3.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 19.1% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.4 12.7 6.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 18.2% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 1.6 8.7 8.1 1.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.9% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 1.9 4.5 7.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.8% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 2.4 1.3 4.2 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 5.6% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 3.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 3.0% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 3.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 1.4% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 4.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.5% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.2% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.8 50.3 32.1 11.2 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.8 7.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 93.9 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 90.4 9.6