Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 168
Expected Predictive Rating -1.8 198
Pace 70.4 131
Improvement -8.5 364

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #223 C D- C C+ B+
Defense C+ #130 C C+ B C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% 4 56% 217 +5.7 21
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 258 37% 215 -1.6 267
Three Pointers 33% 328 35% 127 -3.3 296
1st FG Attempt 1.03 148 +0.8 147
Second Chance 28.5% 237 0.82 360 0.23 337
Turnovers 16.9% 181
Freethrows 0.31 163 73% 157 0.23 151
Total Offense -1.9 223

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 167 58% 182 -0.4 191
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 308 37% 146 +1.8 48
Three Pointers 45% 73 33% 130 -1.2 242
1st FG Attempt 1.01 174 +0.2 174
Second Chance 28.8% 102 1.05 221 0.30 149
Turnovers 19.0% 66
Freethrows 0.33 252 72% 159 0.23 239
Total Defense +1.3 130

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.3 30 +0.6 282
Shot Type Accuracy -0.5 192 -0.8 152
Possession Length 17.6 211 16.8 104
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 19 0.18 225
Improvement -4.3 #349 -4.3 #352

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.3% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 71.5% 81.6% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 65.1% 76.7% 40.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.8% 4.2% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 411 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 247 Texas St. W 83 - 48 75% +13  88% 1 - 0 A+ +27 B- +5 A+ F C+ A+ +22 A- A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 302 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 84% +6  70% 2 - 0 B+ +12 C +2 B- F A+ A +10 B C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 110 @Davidson L 87 - 91 24% -9  1% 2 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 D+ B- A+ C- -2 F B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 145 William & Mary L 74 - 82 55% -9  10% 2 - 2 D -10 F -11 F C F+ C+ +2 C- B- A
 Mon, Nov 24 325 Bucknell W 71 - 66 81% +7  91% 3 - 2 D+ -5 D- -7 D+ D F C+ +2 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 358 VMI W 81 - 48 90% +22  99% 4 - 2 A +18 C +1 B C F A+ +19 A+ A A-
 Mon, Dec 1 89 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 18% +9  98% 5 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +18 A- A- A+ A- +9 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 94 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 39% -10  6% 5 - 3 D -9 D -4 D+ C+ B D+ -4 F A B+
 Tue, Dec 16 353 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 93% +11  99% 6 - 3 C+ +4 D -5 C- F A A- +10 A+ B- C+
 Sat, Dec 20 200 @Ohio W 68 - 58 46% +9  87% 7 - 3 1 - 0 B +10 D -5 D+ C- F A+ +16 A+ C A
 Tue, Dec 30 86 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 35% -13  12% 7 - 4 1 - 1 D+ -7 C +1 B- C- C+ D -6 F F A
 Sat, Jan 3 183 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 41% +0  50% 8 - 4 2 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 B F A+ D+ -4 F B B-
 Tue, Jan 6 146 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 33% -2  22% 8 - 5 2 - 2 C +1 A+ +19 A- A+ B+ F -18 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 74 Akron L 67 - 77 30% -11  0% 8 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -5 F -10 C F D B +5 A- B- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 233 Eastern Michigan W 85 - 79 73% +6  77% 9 - 6 3 - 3 C -1 A +13 A+ B- B- F -14 F C F+
 Tue, Jan 20 288 @Western Michigan W 72 - 54 64% +10  87% 10 - 6 4 - 3 B+ +14 D+ -4 D+ F B- A+ +18 A+ B+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 166 @Toledo L 72 - 73 38% +1  57% 10 - 7 4 - 4 C +1 C- -2 A- F F B- +3 A D- F+
 Tue, Jan 27 211 Buffalo L 78 - 89 69% -5  5% 10 - 8 4 - 5 F+ -17 C +0 D+ A- B F -18 F C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 296 @Central Michigan L 59 - 62 65% +4  66% 10 - 9 4 - 6 D+ -8 F -20 F F C A +13 A+ F C+
 Tue, Feb 3 307 Ball St. W 77 - 52 85% +13  94% 11 - 9 5 - 6 B+ +13 B +6 A+ F F+ A +10 A- C- C
 Sat, Feb 7 147 @Arkansas St. L 54 - 91 33% -21  0% 11 - 10 F -33 F -23 F F F D- -7 F D- D
 Wed, Feb 11 308 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 70 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 166 Toledo W 78 - 75 61%
 Tue, Feb 17 146 Kent St. W 77 - 76 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 86 @Miami (OH) L 74 - 84 18%
 Tue, Feb 24 288 Western Michigan W 81 - 71 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 183 Massachusetts W 79 - 75 64%
 Fri, Mar 6 233 @Eastern Michigan W 70 - 69 51%
Totals 15 - 13 9 - 9 -1 C- -2 C D- C C+ +1 C C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- C+ C 50% 17% 33% B+ C C- F D- C C C+ C+ C+ C C+ C+ C+ 39% 16% 45% D+ C C+ C- C+ B C- C C-
1.06 56% 37% 35% -1 +1 1.03 28% 0.8 .23 17% .31 73% .23 1.07 58% 37% 33% -1 +1 1.01 29% 1.0 .30 19% .33 72% .23
Nov
3		 Texas St. B- A F+ A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% B- A+ D+ F F C+ D- D D- A+ B C- A+ A 47% 20% 33% F+ A- A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19 0.68 50% 40% 18% -11 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06
Nov
9		 Le Moyne C F A+ A+ C 57% 10% 33% A B- D F F A+ D- A+ C A B+ F A- B+ 35% 11% 54% C- B F A+ C+ A+ A- F C
1.18 42% 67% 47% +1 +3 1.09 27% 0.4 .11 9% .26 94% .25 0.85 50% 60% 28% -5 +1 0.93 34% 0.7 .25 34% .26 92% .24
Nov
15		 Davidson B- C- D F D 49% 30% 21% C+ D+ C+ B- B- A+ A+ B A+ C- D+ F F F 30% 21% 49% C+ F A D- B A+ F F+ F
1.10 57% 35% 25% -4 0 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 11% .50 69% .34 1.15 62% 56% 48% +15 -1 1.30 23% 1.2 .27 23% .62 74% .46
Nov
19		 William & Mary F D- A+ F F 54% 8% 38% A F D+ B+ C F+ A+ A A+ C+ D B- C+ C- 43% 6% 51% D C- C+ B- B- A F+ F F
0.95 52% 75% 16% -11 +3 0.86 27% 1.1 .30 23% .45 78% .35 1.05 67% 33% 32% +2 +2 1.10 25% 1.1 .28 23% .40 88% .35
Nov
24		 Bucknell D- F C A+ D 42% 11% 47% A- D+ F A+ D F A+ D A+ C+ D- A+ F F 44% 12% 44% F+ F A+ F B- A+ F C+ F
1.03 42% 40% 43% 0 +1 1.04 16% 1.8 .28 22% .48 69% .33 0.96 63% 0% 42% +3 +2 1.12 15% 1.5 .23 26% .39 75% .29
Nov
26		 VMI C B+ A- B+ B 42% 17% 42% B- B A+ F C F C- C+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 5% 56% F A+ D A+ A A- F F F
1.22 70% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.25 56% 0.8 .42 24% .30 73% .22 0.72 35% 0% 8% -32 +2 0.42 30% 0.5 .14 21% .61 78% .47
Dec
1		 Kansas St. A+ F A+ A+ B+ 40% 10% 50% A- A- A C- A- A+ B B B+ A- A- A+ A+ A+ 49% 14% 37% D- A+ C- C C- F F A+ C-
1.28 37% 60% 46% +3 +1 1.10 44% 1.1 .50 12% .34 74% .25 1.03 52% 14% 26% -10 +2 0.84 35% 1.1 .38 9% .38 55% .21
Dec
6		 Utah Valley D A+ F+ F D 43% 19% 39% B- D+ C C+ C+ B C F D+ D+ F F D F 52% 8% 40% D F B- A+ A B+ B- B- B-
0.99 74% 30% 14% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .33 18% .34 65% .22 1.14 76% 75% 37% +14 +3 1.35 35% 0.9 .31 24% .27 67% .18
Dec
16		 Chicago St. D C+ F F+ D 58% 2% 40% A+ C- F D F A D+ D D A- A+ A+ A- A+ 30% 48% 22% A A+ D+ A- B- C+ F A+ F
1.13 67% 0% 29% +1 +4 1.12 23% 1.0 .23 15% .31 72% .23 0.82 33% 25% 27% -16 -4 0.62 30% 0.7 .22 16% .48 63% .30
Dec
20		 Ohio D F B- C+ D- 53% 16% 31% B+ D+ C+ D C- F A+ A A+ A+ F F A+ A+ 26% 13% 62% D+ A+ B D- C A F A- F
1.01 46% 43% 36% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.9 .32 24% .45 83% .37 0.86 70% 60% 17% -10 0 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 22% .57 63% .36
Dec
30		 Miami (OH) C A- A F C+ 47% 18% 35% B B- C- D+ C- C+ A F+ B D D+ F F F 44% 17% 40% D+ F F D- F A F F F
1.10 69% 50% 26% +4 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26 1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37
Jan
3		 Massachusetts B C+ F+ A+ B 54% 18% 29% B B F B+ F A+ A+ D- A+ D+ D B F F 54% 12% 35% F F A+ F B B- F D F
1.16 63% 30% 44% +6 +1 1.16 14% 1.2 .17 11% .58 67% .39 1.15 64% 33% 50% +11 +2 1.29 20% 1.7 .33 21% .51 71% .36
Jan
6		 Kent St. A+ C- F A+ B+ 53% 9% 38% A A- A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F F F+ F F 42% 13% 45% D F C F F F B+ F C
1.32 56% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.15 44% 1.2 .52 13% .51 87% .44 1.36 68% 43% 42% +10 +1 1.25 34% 1.5 .52 14% .31 89% .28
Jan
9		 Akron F C- B C+ C+ 43% 24% 33% C- C D- F F D D F F+ B D+ A+ B- A 31% 13% 56% C+ A- C+ B- B- B+ D- D+ D-
0.93 55% 42% 35% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.5 .15 21% .25 64% .16 1.07 65% 14% 32% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.3 .41 19% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Eastern Michigan A C- D A+ A+ 51% 24% 24% C A+ B- C+ B- B- A- B- A- F D F D F 38% 24% 38% C- F D- A- C F+ C+ F D+
1.28 56% 33% 67% +10 0 1.22 32% 1.0 .32 15% .37 76% .28 1.19 63% 58% 37% +9 0 1.18 32% 0.8 .26 14% .24 86% .21
Jan
20		 Western Michigan D+ D A+ F D- 58% 6% 36% A+ D+ D- F F B- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% D A+ B- B+ B+ A B- F+ C
1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32 0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19
Jan
24		 Toledo C- C A+ A+ B 67% 8% 25% A+ A- C F F F C- D- C- B- A+ B- C A+ 39% 22% 39% D+ A C+ F D- F+ A F B
1.06 59% 75% 46% +8 +4 1.25 36% 0.2 .07 24% .23 67% .15 1.08 39% 38% 35% -7 0 0.88 28% 1.3 .36 12% .20 92% .18
Jan
27		 Buffalo C C F C+ D- 55% 12% 33% A- D+ C- A+ A- B C- F D- F B- F F F 40% 10% 50% D- F B+ D C+ D- D+ D D
1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16 1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29
Jan
31		 Central Michigan F F+ F F F 59% 15% 25% B+ F F F F C F F F A C A+ A+ A+ 46% 28% 26% D+ A+ C- F F C+ C+ A+ A
0.84 49% 22% 27% -11 +2 0.85 25% 0.4 .09 16% .20 58% .12 0.88 57% 21% 15% -13 0 0.76 29% 1.5 .44 18% .26 47% .12
Feb
3		 Ball St. B A+ F A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% C+ A+ D+ F F F+ B- A+ A A C- C A+ A- 34% 23% 43% B- A- A+ F C- C D+ A+ A-
1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29 0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Arkansas St. F C F F F 40% 22% 38% C F D+ F F F B C+ B D- F A F F 37% 8% 56% D F D D+ D- D C- A+ B+
0.72 59% 25% 10% -16 0 0.69 23% 0.1 .03 23% .38 73% .27 1.21 74% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.1 .44 17% .34 57% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.9 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 11.4 7.7 0.8 22.1 4th
5th 0.9 11.7 10.7 0.8 0.0 24.1 5th
6th 0.2 7.1 12.6 1.4 0.0 21.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.2 11.0 2.4 0.0 16.7 7th
8th 0.6 5.3 2.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 1.5 0.1 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.3 2.8 10.3 21.5 28.9 24.0 10.4 1.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.8% 8.6% 8.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
11-7 10.4% 7.0% 7.0% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.7
10-8 24.0% 5.0% 5.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 22.8
9-9 28.9% 3.7% 3.7% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 27.8
8-10 21.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 20.9
7-11 10.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 10.2
6-12 2.8% 2.8
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 14.0 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 6.5 54.8 35.5 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 0.3%