Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#61
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#58
Pace70.7#154
Improvement+4.8#5

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#93
First Shot+5.7#44
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#309
Layup/Dunks+4.3#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#234
Freethrows+3.8#14
Improvement+1.3#83

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#42
First Shot+5.4#36
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#205
Layups/Dunks+5.3#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#184
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement+3.5#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 22.2% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.2% 9.2% 4.5%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 10.9
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 93.6% 89.3%
Conference Champion 15.3% 16.5% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.4% 4.8% 2.9%
First Round18.4% 19.8% 13.3%
Second Round6.3% 7.1% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 35 - 8
Quad 38 - 214 - 10
Quad 49 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 342 Canisius W 88-48 97%     1 - 0 +25.8 +20.2 +9.9
  Sat, Nov 8 285 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-71 95%     2 - 0 -3.6 +3.1 -6.3
  Tue, Nov 11 69 @Cincinnati L 62-74 42%     2 - 1 -1.0 -8.4 +9.1
  Sat, Nov 15 259 Bethune-Cookman W 91-82 94%     3 - 1 +0.5 +15.7 -15.0
  Wed, Nov 19 99 @Marquette W 77-71 OT 54%     4 - 1 +14.0 -1.3 +14.5
  Sat, Nov 22 350 NC Central W 74-55 98%     5 - 1 +3.8 +0.1 +4.8
  Thu, Nov 27 89 Georgetown W 84-79 OT 61%     6 - 1 +11.0 +7.0 +3.6
  Fri, Nov 28 9 BYU L 79-83 15%     6 - 2 +15.9 +9.9 +6.2
  Tue, Dec 2 124 East Tennessee St. W 88-71 81%     7 - 2 +16.8 +10.1 +5.8
  Sat, Dec 6 25 Virginia L 73-86 28%     7 - 3 +1.9 +1.5 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 13 343 North Florida W 84-61 97%     8 - 3 +8.6 +3.4 +5.6
  Tue, Dec 16 122 Florida St. W 97-69 80%     9 - 3 +27.9 +13.9 +11.1
  Sat, Dec 20 107 Liberty W 76-68 78%    
  Wed, Dec 31 196 Fordham W 76-62 91%    
  Sat, Jan 3 289 @Loyola Chicago W 80-67 89%    
  Tue, Jan 6 79 George Washington W 81-76 67%    
  Tue, Jan 13 140 @Duquesne W 81-76 66%    
  Fri, Jan 16 289 Loyola Chicago W 83-64 96%    
  Wed, Jan 21 238 @La Salle W 74-64 83%    
  Sat, Jan 24 174 @Saint Joseph's W 76-69 74%    
  Tue, Jan 27 116 Rhode Island W 76-67 79%    
  Fri, Jan 30 34 @Saint Louis L 75-82 25%    
  Tue, Feb 3 111 St. Bonaventure W 76-68 78%    
  Fri, Feb 6 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 71-76 33%    
  Sun, Feb 15 126 Davidson W 77-67 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 75 @George Mason L 69-71 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 140 Duquesne W 84-73 83%    
  Tue, Feb 24 34 Saint Louis L 78-79 46%    
  Fri, Feb 27 79 @George Washington L 78-79 45%    
  Tue, Mar 3 104 @Richmond W 76-74 57%    
  Fri, Mar 6 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.4 3.5 1.3 0.2 15.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.3 6.8 2.5 0.2 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 6.3 7.0 1.7 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 1.0 5.7 6.4 1.8 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.4 3.5 6.1 1.8 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 4.4 2.1 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.2 0.2 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.4 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.1 7.5 11.4 15.7 16.2 16.2 12.5 8.0 3.7 1.3 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.0
16-2 93.6% 3.5    2.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 67.9% 5.4    2.8 2.2 0.4
14-4 31.0% 3.9    1.1 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.4% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.3% 15.3 8.1 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 96.5% 54.4% 42.1% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.3%
17-1 1.3% 85.6% 36.0% 49.6% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 77.5%
16-2 3.7% 66.6% 28.4% 38.2% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.2 53.4%
15-3 8.0% 52.1% 27.5% 24.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 0.1 3.8 34.0%
14-4 12.5% 34.8% 21.2% 13.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 2.9 0.1 8.1 17.2%
13-5 16.2% 21.8% 16.3% 5.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 0.3 12.7 6.6%
12-6 16.2% 12.8% 11.0% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 14.1 2.0%
11-7 15.7% 9.9% 9.3% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 1.1 0.5 14.2 0.7%
10-8 11.4% 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 11.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 10.7 0.1%
9-9 7.5% 3.9% 3.9% 11.7 0.1 0.2 7.2
8-10 4.1% 3.6% 3.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
7-11 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.9% 6.0% 6.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.6% 13.6% 7.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 4.1 11.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 79.4 8.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 3.2 6.5 6.5 58.1 25.8