Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#174
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#148
Pace66.0#275
Improvement+0.3#165

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#121
First Shot+3.0#95
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#249
Layup/Dunks-3.8#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#7
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement+1.5#68

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#272
First Shot-4.9#331
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#56
Layups/Dunks-0.9#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#210
Freethrows-1.1#259
Improvement-1.3#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 15.0% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 67.9% 78.1% 55.9%
.500 or above in Conference 71.5% 76.2% 65.9%
Conference Champion 17.9% 20.8% 14.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 3.7% 6.6%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round13.4% 14.8% 11.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 155 @Washington St. W 83-81 34%     1 - 0 +5.2 +9.0 -3.8
  Wed, Nov 12 248 @San Diego L 74-78 53%     1 - 1 -5.9 +2.4 -8.4
  Sat, Nov 15 89 @UC San Diego L 67-75 18%     1 - 2 +0.9 -2.6 +3.5
  Wed, Nov 26 221 Cal St. Northridge W 78-64 60%     2 - 2 +10.4 -0.9 +10.7
  Fri, Nov 28 125 Sam Houston St. L 68-94 37%     2 - 3 -23.6 +1.9 -28.1
  Wed, Dec 3 343 North Dakota W 90-58 89%     3 - 3 +17.5 +12.7 +5.1
  Sat, Dec 6 165 @South Dakota St. W 84-81 36%     4 - 3 +5.6 +14.5 -8.9
  Wed, Dec 10 55 @Notre Dame L 65-80 11%     4 - 4 -2.4 +5.8 -9.9
  Sun, Dec 21 250 @Cal Poly W 83-82 54%    
  Tue, Dec 23 311 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-73 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 242 Eastern Washington W 82-75 73%    
  Thu, Jan 8 202 Montana W 80-75 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 173 Montana St. W 73-70 60%    
  Thu, Jan 15 162 @Idaho St. L 68-72 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 212 @Weber St. L 75-76 47%    
  Thu, Jan 22 279 Sacramento St. W 81-73 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 178 Portland St. W 73-70 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 154 @Northern Colorado L 74-78 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 271 @Northern Arizona W 73-71 56%    
  Thu, Feb 5 173 @Montana St. L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 202 @Montana L 77-78 46%    
  Thu, Feb 12 212 Weber St. W 78-73 68%    
  Sat, Feb 14 162 Idaho St. W 71-69 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 178 @Portland St. L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 279 @Sacramento St. W 78-76 58%    
  Thu, Feb 26 271 Northern Arizona W 76-68 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 154 Northern Colorado W 77-75 56%    
  Mon, Mar 2 242 @Eastern Washington W 79-78 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.6 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 17.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.8 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 6.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.7 3.3 0.3 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.2 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.2 7.5 10.2 12.7 13.4 13.6 11.4 8.9 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 99.8% 1.7    1.6 0.1
15-3 94.3% 3.2    2.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 79.6% 4.7    3.3 1.3 0.1
13-5 51.4% 4.6    2.2 1.9 0.5 0.0
12-6 22.3% 2.5    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 11.1 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 40.0% 40.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 55.0% 55.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.7% 42.0% 42.0% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.4% 32.9% 32.9% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.3
14-4 5.9% 29.6% 29.6% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 4.2
13-5 8.9% 21.5% 21.5% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.0
12-6 11.4% 19.5% 19.5% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 9.2
11-7 13.6% 15.0% 15.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 11.5
10-8 13.4% 11.3% 11.3% 14.9 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.2 11.9
9-9 12.7% 9.0% 9.0% 15.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 11.5
8-10 10.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.7
7-11 7.5% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.1 0.2 7.3
6-12 5.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 5.1
5-13 3.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.7 4.1 1.4 86.4 0.0%