Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #243
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 #255
Pace 62.8 #328
Improvement -7.9 #363

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #146 B- C C C+ B-
Defense #323 D+ C- D D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #189 1.13 #215 -0.7 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #307 0.86 #51 -1.6 #266
Three Pointers 47% #53 1.09 #75 +5.0 #37
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #99 +2.6 #97
Freethrows 0.32 #153 74% #141 0.23 #140
Second Chance 32.7% #117 0.97 #261 0.32 #159
Turnovers 17.4% #206
Total Offense +0.7 #146

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.19 #220 -2.1 #249
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #220 1.02 #365 -1.9 #320
Three Pointers 40% #222 0.99 #137 +1.1 #135
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #275 -2.8 #275
Freethrows 0.33 #244 77% #354 0.25 #296
Second Chance 30.9% #195 1.07 #254 0.33 #228
Turnovers 14.7% #315
Total Defense -5.4 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #74 0.8% #238
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #112 4.8% #271
Possession Length 19.7 #359 17.0 #131
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #339 0.19 #240
Improvement -2.0 #295 -5.9 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.2% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 1.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 4.3% 8.1% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.2% 19.9% 43.8%
First Four2.0% 2.2% 1.8%
First Round2.4% 3.3% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 48.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 48 - 511 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 210 @San Diego W 71 - 68 32% +7  1 - 0 +3 +5 C D+ A- -2 C B- D+
 Sun, Nov 9 44 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 4% -11  1 - 1 -1 +2 A- C F -5 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 130 @Seattle L 74 - 83 18% -9  1 - 2 -4 +18 B+ A+ B- -24 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 43 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 4% -5  1 - 3 +6 -6 C F F+ +11 A+ B F+
 Wed, Nov 26 112 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 22% -1  1 - 4 +0 +7 A F F -6 C F C
 Fri, Nov 28 191 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 39% +18  2 - 4 +30 +2 B- A D- +26 A+ B- B
 Wed, Dec 3 360 @UMKC W 68 - 59 75% +0  3 - 4 -3 +3 D B+ D -4 D C+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 273 Denver W 93 - 79 68% +6  4 - 4 +5 +14 A- B- A -9 C- F C
 Wed, Dec 10 100 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 12% +1  4 - 5 +4 +3 B- F B- +1 C A- B+
 Sun, Dec 21 184 UC Davis L 83 - 93 49% -8  4 - 6 -14 +13 A+ C+ B- -28 F D F
 Thu, Jan 1 258 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 65% +10  5 - 6 1 - 0 +4 +6 B+ D+ A -3 B- D D+
 Sat, Jan 3 140 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 38% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 -8 +13 A+ D+ A+ -21 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 180 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 27% -11  5 - 8 1 - 2 -11 +4 D+ C D -16 F B F+
 Sat, Jan 10 306 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 53% +2  6 - 8 2 - 2 -4 +10 A- A- F -13 B- F C
 Thu, Jan 15 187 Idaho W 76 - 68 50% -2  7 - 8 3 - 2 +3 +4 A- F B- -1 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 232 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 59% -15  7 - 9 3 - 3 -25 -10 F C+ A -16 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 156 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 23% -5  7 - 10 3 - 4 -9 -2 D+ B+ B- -9 C F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 171 @Montana L 60 - 69 25% -8  7 - 11 3 - 5 -7 -8 F C+ F+ +1 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 236 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 37% +4  7 - 12 3 - 6 -3 +6 A F C -10 C- D- C
 Mon, Feb 2 140 @Portland St. L 65 - 88 20% -13  7 - 13 3 - 7 -19 +7 C A+ F+ -29 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 306 Northern Arizona L 73 - 79 74% -4  7 - 14 3 - 8 -18 +5 B- B A -23 F A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 180 Northern Colorado L 76 - 77 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 232 @Eastern Washington L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 187 @Idaho L 70 - 76 29%
 Thu, Feb 19 171 Montana L 74 - 75 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 156 Montana St. L 70 - 72 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 236 Weber St. W 79 - 76 60%
 Mon, Mar 2 258 @Sacramento St. L 78 - 80 42%
Totals 10 - 18 6 - 12 -5 +1 B- C C -5 D+ C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.2 0.5 3rd
4th 0.5 1.9 0.3 2.6 4th
5th 0.2 3.8 1.4 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 5.2 0.2 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 8.7 1.9 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.8 9.5 7.4 0.2 17.9 8th
9th 0.3 4.5 15.7 14.7 1.6 36.7 9th
10th 2.1 6.6 5.7 1.1 15.5 10th
Total 2.4 11.1 22.1 27.0 21.4 11.7 3.8 0.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.5% 9.3% 9.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 3.8% 11.9% 11.9% 15.2 0.4 0.1 3.3
8-10 11.7% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.1 0.8 10.8
7-11 21.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7 20.7
6-12 27.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.7 26.3
5-13 22.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 21.9
4-14 11.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.0
3-15 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.8 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%