Oregon
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#62
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#104
Pace69.7#182
Improvement+4.0#16

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#64
First Shot+1.3#139
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#15
Layup/Dunks-3.8#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#86
Freethrows+2.1#70
Improvement+4.4#3

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#72
First Shot+4.4#50
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#244
Layups/Dunks+3.0#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#108
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement-0.4#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.7% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 21.3% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.1% 21.2% 7.6%
Average Seed 9.3 9.1 9.4
.500 or above 28.2% 50.5% 25.4%
.500 or above in Conference 14.9% 22.1% 13.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 4.3% 7.9%
First Four3.2% 6.2% 2.8%
First Round7.7% 18.4% 6.4%
Second Round3.6% 8.8% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Neutral) - 11.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 53 - 13
Quad 23 - 45 - 17
Quad 34 - 19 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 110 Hawaii W 60-59 79%     1 - 0 +1.5 -13.0 +14.4
  Fri, Nov 7 206 Rice W 67-63 91%     2 - 0 -2.0 -5.7 +3.9
  Wed, Nov 12 164 South Dakota St. W 83-69 87%     3 - 0 +10.7 +8.3 +2.3
  Mon, Nov 17 165 Oregon St. W 87-75 87%     4 - 0 +8.6 +14.9 -6.0
  Mon, Nov 24 28 Auburn L 73-84 30%     4 - 1 +3.4 +4.5 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 25 52 San Diego St. L 80-97 44%     4 - 2 -6.6 +11.4 -17.9
  Thu, Nov 27 38 Creighton L 66-76 36%     4 - 3 +2.4 +0.8 +1.3
  Tue, Dec 2 36 USC L 77-82 47%     4 - 4 0 - 1 +4.6 +9.6 -5.1
  Sat, Dec 6 30 @UCLA L 63-74 21%     4 - 5 0 - 2 +6.2 +6.9 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 13 197 UC Davis W 104-62 90%     5 - 5 +36.6 +26.3 +8.9
  Wed, Dec 17 246 Portland W 94-69 93%     6 - 5 +17.1 +7.5 +6.8
  Sun, Dec 21 5 Gonzaga L 72-85 11%    
  Sun, Dec 28 231 Nebraska Omaha W 84-68 93%    
  Fri, Jan 2 95 @Maryland W 77-76 52%    
  Mon, Jan 5 130 @Rutgers W 75-71 65%    
  Thu, Jan 8 31 Ohio St. L 76-78 44%    
  Tue, Jan 13 24 @Nebraska L 71-80 19%    
  Sun, Jan 18 1 Michigan L 71-86 9%    
  Tue, Jan 20 11 Michigan St. L 68-74 29%    
  Sun, Jan 25 48 @Washington L 73-78 32%    
  Wed, Jan 28 30 UCLA L 72-74 42%    
  Sun, Feb 1 22 Iowa L 69-73 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 7 @Purdue L 67-82 9%    
  Mon, Feb 9 26 @Indiana L 71-80 21%    
  Sat, Feb 14 105 Penn St. W 82-74 76%    
  Tue, Feb 17 96 Minnesota W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 36 @USC L 75-82 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 43 Wisconsin W 78-77 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 59 @Northwestern L 75-78 38%    
  Tue, Mar 3 12 @Illinois L 72-84 13%    
  Sat, Mar 7 48 Washington W 76-75 53%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.3 0.2 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 3.9 1.8 0.1 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.0 3.1 0.4 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.1 1.3 0.0 10.6 12th
13th 0.2 2.9 6.0 2.6 0.2 0.0 11.9 13th
14th 0.1 2.2 6.7 4.1 0.5 0.0 13.7 14th
15th 0.1 1.5 5.6 4.5 0.9 0.0 12.5 15th
16th 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.2 0.9 0.1 10.3 16th
17th 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.8 0.9 0.1 7.0 17th
18th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 18th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.8 9.0 13.2 15.6 15.5 13.6 10.6 7.5 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 0.0%
16-4 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 7.7% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.4% 98.2% 3.5% 94.7% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.2%
13-7 0.8% 97.6% 97.6% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.6%
12-8 2.1% 86.8% 1.0% 85.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 86.7%
11-9 3.9% 64.0% 0.3% 63.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 63.8%
10-10 7.5% 33.9% 0.2% 33.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 0.0 5.0 33.8%
9-11 10.6% 8.2% 0.2% 8.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 9.7 8.1%
8-12 13.6% 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.4 1.0%
7-13 15.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.2%
6-14 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 15.6
5-15 13.2% 13.2
4-16 9.0% 9.0
3-17 4.8% 4.8
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.2% 0.1% 9.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.9 0.2 90.8 9.1%