Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 #139
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 #124
Pace 70.0 #148
Improvement +3.2 #55

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #263 C C- D C- B-
Defense #57 B B- B- F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #38 1.14 #201 +2.9 #85
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #237 0.71 #256 -1.5 #260
Three Pointers 38% #243 1.05 #116 -0.8 #212
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #154 +0.6 #154
Freethrows 0.30 #201 68% #301 0.21 #238
Second Chance 30.9% #170 0.90 #328 0.28 #259
Turnovers 19.6% #328
Total Offense -3.6 #263

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.11 #118 -1.1 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.69 #76 +0.5 #148
Three Pointers 37% #290 0.87 #26 +4.7 #19
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #57 +4.1 #57
Freethrows 0.38 #337 74% #279 0.28 #342
Second Chance 29.5% #130 0.95 #83 0.28 #98
Turnovers 19.2% #63
Total Defense +4.9 #57

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #72 0.4% #201
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.5% #181 -8.4% #42
Possession Length 18.1 #261 16.4 #46
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #195 0.20 #271
Improvement -0.5 #206 +3.6 #28

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.3% 30.2% 24.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 99.5% 100.0% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 81.6% 88.1% 69.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.3% 30.2% 24.9%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Away) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 38 - 48 - 7
Quad 410 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 85 @Stanford L 79 - 89 22% -6  0 - 1 -0 +1 A+ F F +0 C+ C- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 97 @San Francisco L 70 - 80 25% -12  0 - 2 -2 +2 D B+ F -4 C- C+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93 - 80 90% +7  1 - 2 +0 +9 A+ A- D+ -10 C F B+
 Tue, Nov 25 209 @Utah Tech W 68 - 63 55% +1  2 - 2 +5 -5 D- D F +10 B- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 287 @South Dakota W 77 - 71 70% +5  3 - 2 +2 -7 D+ F C- +8 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 240 Nebraska Omaha L 55 - 60 80% -2  3 - 3 -13 -10 F C D- -3 A F C+
 Wed, Dec 17 71 @Colorado L 73 - 84 18% -1  3 - 4 +0 +2 D+ A+ D- -1 B B- B
 Sat, Dec 20 171 @Tulane L 61 - 63 47% -3  3 - 5 +0 -7 F C D +7 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 229 @Weber St. W 95 - 90 OT 59% +0  4 - 5 1 - 0 +4 +4 D+ C- B -0 B B F
 Sat, Jan 3 235 @Idaho St. W 93 - 87 OT 60% -5  5 - 5 2 - 0 +5 +12 A+ F A- -8 D- B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 261 Sacramento St. W 96 - 69 82% +14  6 - 5 3 - 0 +18 +14 A+ F C+ +3 A- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 191 Northern Colorado W 76 - 73 73% -1  7 - 5 4 - 0 -2 -3 C A- F +1 D- A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 311 Northern Arizona W 63 - 52 89% +5  8 - 5 5 - 0 -1 -9 F+ C- D +10 C+ A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 244 @Eastern Washington W 65 - 61 61% +5  9 - 5 6 - 0 +2 -8 F B D +11 A C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 184 @Idaho W 69 - 66 50% +5  10 - 5 7 - 0 +4 -1 B+ F C+ +5 C+ A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 158 Montana L 60 - 64 66% -5  10 - 6 7 - 1 -7 -12 F C+ F +5 C A+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 166 Montana St. W 63 - 54 68% +3  11 - 6 8 - 1 +6 -3 A+ F F +10 A+ C- A-
 Mon, Feb 2 235 Idaho St. W 88 - 65 79% +13  12 - 6 9 - 1 +16 +21 A- B A+ -2 A- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 261 @Sacramento St. W 78 - 74 64%
 Thu, Feb 12 311 @Northern Arizona W 73 - 66 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 191 @Northern Colorado W 74 - 73 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 184 Idaho W 73 - 67 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 244 Eastern Washington W 77 - 68 80%
 Thu, Feb 26 166 @Montana St. L 68 - 69 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 158 @Montana L 70 - 72 44%
 Mon, Mar 2 229 Weber St. W 78 - 70 78%
Totals 17 - 9 14 - 4 +1 -4 C C- D +5 B B- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 13.2 25.5 24.0 12.6 3.6 81.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 5.2 5.7 1.5 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.3 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.3 9.4 19.2 27.0 24.0 12.6 3.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.6
16-2 100.0% 12.6    12.6
15-3 100.0% 24.0    23.0 1.1
14-4 94.5% 25.5    18.8 6.4 0.4
13-5 68.6% 13.2    5.6 6.2 1.4 0.1
12-6 27.4% 2.6    0.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 81.6% 81.6 63.9 14.9 2.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.6% 39.4% 39.4% 12.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 2.2
16-2 12.6% 38.5% 38.5% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.3 0.0 7.7
15-3 24.0% 33.9% 33.9% 13.5 0.3 3.5 4.0 0.3 15.9
14-4 27.0% 27.6% 27.6% 13.9 0.1 2.1 4.1 1.2 19.6
13-5 19.2% 22.4% 22.4% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.2 0.0 14.9
12-6 9.4% 17.3% 17.3% 14.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 7.8
11-7 3.3% 13.7% 13.7% 14.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.8
10-8 0.8% 11.4% 11.4% 15.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.3% 28.3% 0.0% 13.7 71.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 12.4 3.5 51.4 42.3 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%