Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
75 Belmont 31.6%   12   17 - 3 8 - 2 +7.6      +5.3 66 +2.3 108 73.3 67 +9.4 65 +8.5 1
89 Illinois St. 20.6%   13 - 7 6 - 4 +6.1      +2.8 100 +3.3 85 66.5 247 +3.7 107 +3.0 5
101 Murray St. 18.0%   16 - 5 8 - 2 +5.1      +6.0 60 -0.9 204 78.4 14 +7.6 76 +8.0 2
108 Northern Iowa 9.7%   12 - 8 5 - 5 +4.0      -2.7 246 +6.7 32 59.3 365 +3.1 119 +1.4 8
126 Bradley 6.3%   13 - 8 7 - 4 +2.0      +1.4 132 +0.6 146 68.7 183 +2.3 127 +4.1 4
136 Illinois-Chicago 5.4%   10 - 10 7 - 4 +1.4      -0.2 169 +1.6 119 66.7 238 -0.1 162 +5.4 3
145 Southern Illinois 2.5%   7 - 12 2 - 7 +0.9      -2.4 235 +3.4 84 72.2 88 -1.6 197 -3.8 9
148 Drake 3.7%   9 - 10 5 - 5 +0.7      -0.4 176 +1.1 131 66.7 239 -0.3 167 +2.5 6
169 Valparaiso 1.9%   9 - 10 4 - 5 -0.8      -2.3 231 +1.5 120 65.9 265 -0.4 171 +2.2 7
195 Indiana St. 0.7%   7 - 13 2 - 9 -2.2      -1.6 214 -0.6 187 73.0 75 -4.2 227 -6.2 10
270 Evansville 0.1%   3 - 15 1 - 8 -6.2      -6.5 329 +0.3 158 68.9 176 -7.7 288 -8.9 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 101 Murray St. 76 108 Northern Iowa 81   
Sat, Jan 24 75 Belmont 80 89 Illinois St. 69   
Sat, Jan 24 148 Drake 76 195 Indiana St. 62   
Sat, Jan 24 126 Bradley 70 136 Illinois-Chicago 85   
Sun, Jan 25 270 Evansville 0 145 Southern Illinois 0   
Tue, Jan 27 195 Indiana St. 74 136 Illinois-Chicago 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 89 Illinois St. 80 101 Murray St. 82 58%   
Wed, Jan 28 145 Southern Illinois 62 108 Northern Iowa 63 50%   
Wed, Jan 28 75 Belmont 77 169 Valparaiso 71 70%   
Wed, Jan 28 148 Drake 74 270 Evansville 64 82%   
Sat, Jan 31 75 Belmont 90 101 Murray St. 84 70%   
Sat, Jan 31 145 Southern Illinois 72 136 Illinois-Chicago 70 60%   
Sat, Jan 31 126 Bradley 72 148 Drake 73 57%   
Sat, Jan 31 195 Indiana St. 73 169 Valparaiso 71 56%   
Sat, Jan 31 270 Evansville 55 108 Northern Iowa 68 89%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.5 68.7 20.7 6.6 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
Illinois St. 3.3 12.0 25.1 24.8 16.2 10.6 6.7 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 2.2 34.8 33.8 16.7 8.1 4.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 5.0 1.9 7.3 14.9 18.1 18.6 17.0 13.1 6.5 2.2 0.3 0.0
Bradley 4.6 3.5 10.1 17.2 19.1 17.8 15.4 10.9 4.9 1.1 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 4.4 3.9 11.4 18.8 20.8 17.8 14.6 8.6 3.4 0.7 0.0
Southern Illinois 8.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.9 10.2 21.0 40.2 17.6 2.3
Drake 6.0 0.6 2.8 7.5 12.4 15.5 18.2 20.5 15.8 6.4 0.5 0.0
Valparaiso 6.8 0.2 1.3 3.8 7.2 10.1 14.2 20.4 26.6 13.0 3.0 0.3
Indiana St. 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 9.7 25.0 51.8 9.8
Evansville 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 20.6 74.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 15 - 5 24 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.8 11.1 20.3 25.2 21.9 12.1 3.3
Illinois St. 12 - 8 19 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 8.5 15.7 22.3 22.9 16.9 7.9 1.6
Murray St. 14 - 6 22 - 9 0.1 0.4 2.1 6.6 13.5 20.7 23.7 18.3 10.2 3.9 0.6
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 18 - 12 0.0 0.4 1.8 6.3 13.7 20.6 23.1 19.0 10.7 3.7 0.6
Bradley 11 - 9 17 - 13 0.7 4.0 11.2 19.5 23.6 20.0 13.1 6.0 1.7 0.2
Illinois-Chicago 11 - 9 14 - 15 0.5 3.2 9.3 18.1 23.3 22.0 14.6 6.9 2.0 0.3
Southern Illinois 7 - 12 12 - 17 0.2 1.3 4.6 11.8 18.6 22.6 20.6 12.7 5.8 1.5 0.2
Drake 10 - 10 14 - 15 0.2 1.5 5.9 13.2 20.8 23.6 19.2 10.5 4.0 1.0 0.1
Valparaiso 9 - 11 14 - 16 0.2 1.9 5.8 12.9 19.7 21.8 18.1 11.8 5.4 1.9 0.4 0.0
Indiana St. 6 - 14 11 - 18 1.7 7.5 17.2 23.6 23.3 15.7 7.8 2.7 0.5 0.1
Evansville 3 - 16 5 - 23 9.7 23.3 27.6 21.7 11.7 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 68.7% 51.1 14.2 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 12.0% 4.6 5.1 1.9 0.3 0.1
Murray St. 34.8% 20.7 10.9 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 1.9% 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bradley 3.5% 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 3.9% 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois
Drake 0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 31.6% 31.2% 0.4% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.8 17.3 0.9 0.0 68.4 0.6%
Illinois St. 20.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.4 13.4 4.4 0.4 0.0 79.4 0.0%
Murray St. 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.0 12.7 2.2 0.1 82.0 0.1%
Northern Iowa 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 5.3 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 90.3 0.0%
Bradley 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.1 2.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 93.7 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.1 94.6 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 97.5 0.0%
Drake 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 96.3 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 98.1 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 99.3 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.5 0.2
2nd Round 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 31.6% 0.4% 31.4% 5.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 20.6% 0.0% 20.6% 2.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 18.0% 0.0% 18.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 9.7% 0.0% 9.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.4% 0.0% 5.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.5% 0.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 3.7% 0.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.9% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%