Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
85 Belmont 23.3%   12   9 - 1 1 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +6.6      +4.3 74 +2.3 103 75.2 46 +9.5 65 +10.3 1
90 Illinois St. 17.9%   7 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +5.7      +3.9 83 +1.8 110 66.7 256 +4.9 105 0.0 2
92 Northern Iowa 18.6%   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +5.7      -0.9 189 +6.6 28 61.9 353 +6.2 94 0.0 2
100 Murray St. 15.2%   8 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +4.9      +5.0 69 0.0 168 77.8 22 +6.6 90 0.0 2
117 Bradley 9.4%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 9 +3.2      +0.4 156 +2.8 84 68.0 220 -0.1 172 0.0 2
130 Southern Illinois 6.6%   5 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 +2.1      +0.7 145 +1.4 125 72.6 100 +0.9 158 0.0 2
135 Drake 5.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 +1.7      +2.1 115 -0.5 182 64.4 309 -3.7 230 0.0 2
187 Indiana St. 1.8%   4 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 12 -1.7      -2.9 245 +1.2 130 78.8 16 -3.3 221 0.0 2
190 Illinois-Chicago 1.5%   3 - 6 0 - 1 11 - 18 7 - 13 -1.9      -0.2 172 -1.7 228 69.6 184 -7.7 283 -5.6 11
212 Valparaiso 0.9%   5 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -3.2      -3.5 256 +0.3 156 66.5 262 -3.3 219 0.0 2
276 Evansville 0.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 15 -6.0      -4.9 301 -1.1 206 67.7 228 -7.0 270 0.0 2




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 130 Southern Illinois 83 251 Tennessee Martin 54   
Sat, Dec 13 65 Akron 100 100 Murray St. 115   
Sat, Dec 13 90 Illinois St. 78 43 Utah St. 83   
Sat, Dec 13 102 Richmond 93 130 Southern Illinois 84   
Sat, Dec 13 135 Drake 94 144 North Dakota St. 99   
Sat, Dec 13 149 Oakland 63 92 Northern Iowa 75   
Sat, Dec 13 85 Belmont 87 190 Illinois-Chicago 84   
Sat, Dec 13 109 UNC Wilmington 73 212 Valparaiso 70   
Sat, Dec 13 276 Evansville 58 55 Notre Dame 82   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 187 Indiana St. 79 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 80 53%   
Tue, Dec 16 58 Northwestern 79 212 Valparaiso 64 92%   
Tue, Dec 16 85 Belmont 80 276 Evansville 70 82%   
Wed, Dec 17 190 Illinois-Chicago 65 92 Northern Iowa 69 67%   
Thu, Dec 18 130 Southern Illinois 74 90 Illinois St. 75 53%   
Thu, Dec 18 135 Drake 76 100 Murray St. 82 73%   
Thu, Dec 18 117 Bradley 75 187 Indiana St. 73 58%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 2.8 33.3 21.5 15.6 11.0 7.8 5.0 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0
Illinois St. 3.4 24.0 19.6 16.4 12.8 9.8 7.4 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1
Northern Iowa 3.4 24.3 19.3 15.8 12.7 10.3 7.3 4.7 3.1 1.4 0.8 0.2
Murray St. 3.7 18.7 17.4 15.9 14.1 11.7 8.9 6.4 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3
Bradley 4.7 10.0 12.2 13.0 14.1 13.8 12.4 9.8 7.1 4.6 2.2 0.8
Southern Illinois 5.4 6.2 8.5 10.5 12.4 13.5 13.5 12.8 10.0 6.9 4.1 1.7
Drake 5.6 5.8 7.5 9.5 11.6 12.9 13.9 13.5 10.6 7.8 4.9 2.1
Indiana St. 7.6 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.3 7.3 9.8 13.0 16.3 17.4 14.8 9.4
Illinois-Chicago 7.8 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.7 6.9 9.1 13.1 16.2 18.4 16.2 10.3
Valparaiso 8.4 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.8 7.4 10.4 14.5 19.1 20.8 16.8
Evansville 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.9 5.4 8.7 14.8 24.3 40.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.5 5.4 8.2 11.4 13.8 14.9 13.8 11.7 8.0 4.4 1.6 0.3
Illinois St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.1 5.3 7.9 10.4 12.4 14.1 13.7 11.7 9.0 5.6 2.8 0.8 0.2
Northern Iowa 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.3 7.8 10.7 12.5 13.7 13.5 11.9 9.1 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.2
Murray St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.7 9.5 11.9 13.3 13.9 12.7 10.1 6.9 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1
Bradley 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.1 7.3 10.2 12.4 13.5 13.1 11.8 8.9 6.4 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.3 9.9 12.4 13.2 13.2 11.5 9.1 6.4 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Drake 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.6 7.8 10.7 12.6 13.4 12.6 10.7 8.5 5.5 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.2 7.0 9.8 12.2 13.7 13.5 11.3 9.3 6.7 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 13 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.6 7.2 11.0 13.1 14.1 13.3 11.2 8.9 6.1 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 13 0.3 1.5 3.9 7.2 10.6 12.8 14.4 13.5 11.5 9.1 6.6 4.0 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 5 - 15 1.6 5.5 10.5 14.5 16.3 15.7 12.4 9.4 6.3 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 33.3% 23.2 7.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 24.0% 15.9 6.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 24.3% 15.8 6.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 18.7% 11.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Bradley 10.0% 5.6 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 6.2% 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drake 5.8% 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 23.3% 22.7% 0.6% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 7.3 11.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 76.7 0.7%
Illinois St. 17.9% 17.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7 9.5 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 82.1 0.2%
Northern Iowa 18.6% 18.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 4.8 10.0 2.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 81.4 0.3%
Murray St. 15.2% 15.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.2 8.6 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 84.8 0.2%
Bradley 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.0 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 90.6 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 93.4 0.0%
Drake 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 94.2 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 98.2 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 98.5 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.1 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 23.3% 0.5% 23.0% 4.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 17.9% 0.1% 17.8% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 18.6% 0.2% 18.4% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 15.2% 0.2% 15.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.4% 0.0% 9.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.6% 0.2% 6.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 5.8% 0.2% 5.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.8% 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.5% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.8 1.2
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.0 0.7
2nd Round 16.8% 0.2 83.2 16.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2 0.0
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0