Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
77 Belmont 7.1%   25 - 6 16 - 4 +7.8      +7.4 47 +0.4 157 71.8 93 +8.9 69 +9.9 1
81 Northern Iowa 100.0%   12   22 - 12 11 - 9 +7.4      +0.5 150 +6.9 28 59.0 364 +5.0 102 +2.8 7
103 Illinois St. 0.0%   19 - 12 12 - 8 +4.8      +1.2 138 +3.6 77 66.7 225 +3.9 111 +4.3 5
107 Illinois-Chicago 0.0%   17 - 15 12 - 8 +4.1      +0.7 146 +3.4 83 66.5 230 +2.0 129 +4.4 4
111 Bradley 0.0%   20 - 12 13 - 7 +3.5      +2.2 116 +1.3 133 68.1 188 +3.8 113 +5.8 2
122 Southern Illinois 0.0%   15 - 16 10 - 10 +2.6      -4.2 284 +6.8 31 71.4 100 +0.9 140 +2.0 8
127 Murray St. 0.0%   20 - 12 12 - 8 +2.3      +4.4 78 -2.1 241 77.7 13 +4.6 106 +4.6 3
158 Valparaiso 0.0%   17 - 15 11 - 9 +0.3      -0.8 186 +1.1 138 64.3 291 +1.7 132 +3.6 6
187 Drake 0.0%   12 - 20 6 - 14 -1.6      +0.5 154 -2.0 239 67.5 204 -1.9 196 -2.9 9
197 Indiana St. 0.0%   9 - 21 4 - 16 -1.9      -1.9 218 0.0 173 70.1 129 -5.0 245 -6.2 10
294 Evansville 0.0%   5 - 25 3 - 17 -7.6      -4.5 291 -3.2 272 67.3 214 -7.1 281 -7.2 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
Bradley 2.0 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 3.0 100.0
Illinois St. 3.0 100.0
Murray St. 3.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 6.0 100.0
Valparaiso 6.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 8.0 100.0
Drake 9.0 100.0
Indiana St. 10.0 100.0
Evansville 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 16 - 4 25 - 6 100.0
Bradley 13 - 7 20 - 12 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 12 - 8 17 - 15 100.0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 19 - 12 100.0
Murray St. 12 - 8 20 - 12 100.0
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 22 - 12 100.0
Valparaiso 11 - 9 17 - 15 100.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 15 - 16 100.0
Drake 6 - 14 12 - 20 100.0
Indiana St. 4 - 16 9 - 21 100.0
Evansville 3 - 17 5 - 25 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 100.0
Bradley
Illinois-Chicago
Illinois St.
Murray St.
Northern Iowa
Valparaiso
Southern Illinois
Drake
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0 5.2 1.9 0.0 92.9 7.1%
Northern Iowa 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   1.9 71.2 26.7 0.2
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 97.0 3.0
2nd Round 14.8% 0.1 85.2 14.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4 0.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 7.1% 7.0% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 14.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%